Will this be Arrieta's last start if he tanks? (UPDATE: He Tanked- He was optioned)

[canonfaz]

Especially since our #1 starter doesn't pitch like a #1 SP.

Yep. We basically have all 3-4 type of guys. If you don't have a true #1, then you need your #5 to pitch consistently as good as the rest of your rotation.

[Hank Scorpio]

I think this says it all.

Right, so he basically throws 2 pitches. I wonder what his strike % is with his fastball?

Well below league average, I'd guess.

[clapdiddy]

Right, so he basically throws 2 pitches. I wonder what his strike % is with his fastball?

Well below league average, I'd guess.

I'd bet. He needs to stop messing with the cutter and curveball and stick with fastball, slider, change. Plenty of pitchers have had success with just those three pitches.

[canonfaz]

I definitely agree with this. If there's such thing as mound presence, he hasn't got it. It makes me nervous just watching him. He doesn't exude calmness or confidence out there.

Yep. He seems very edgy (especially with guys on base). Not sure how/if that can be fixed. Seems more like a personal demeanor kinda thing at this point. It's not like he's a rookie out there anymore. He is the anti Steve Johnson.

[Can_of_corn]

undefeated in games Jake pitches

Big problem 2B and DH which are automatic outs.

Right. The fact that the O's have been scoring more runs when Arrieta pitches then they do when Chen pitches isn't relevant at all. Going 5 IP per start is ok as long as the bullpen can clean up the mess.

[eb45]

Right, so he basically throws 2 pitches. I wonder what his strike % is with his fastball?

Well below league average, I'd guess.

I can't find separate pitch numbers but in 2012, according to Fangraphs he actually threw more pitches in the strike zone than league average (46.5% vs. 44.9%) and if using Pitch/fx numbers that goes up to 50.2%.

FG and P/fx both agree that his curveball was his most effective pitch in 2012, though they're divided on his fastball: FG hates it, P/fx thinks it's okay. Both thought his slider and change were no good.

The numbers for 2013 are very different but given the sample size I'm more inclined to go with 2012's numbers. Take them for what they're worth I guess.

[Can_of_corn]

I think this says it all.

Can I get that in wOBA?

[Grt 2BA FL Gator]

I'd bet. He needs to stop messing with the cutter and curveball and stick with fastball, slider, change. Plenty of pitchers have had success with just those three pitches.

I think this is incomplete analysis, or a SSS. We all know that when Jake's curveball is on, it's a devastating pitch. I don't know if he's lost it permanently, but his best starts last year came when he had command of the hook, and he was dominant.

[Grt 2BA FL Gator]

I can't find separate pitch numbers but in 2012, according to Fangraphs he actually threw more pitches in the strike zone than league average (46.5% vs. 44.9%) and if using Pitch/fx numbers that goes up to 50.2%.

FG and P/fx both agree that his curveball was his most effective pitch in 2012, though they're divided on his fastball: FG hates it, P/fx thinks it's okay. Both thought his slider and change were no good.

The numbers for 2013 are very different but given the sample size I'm more inclined to go with 2012's numbers. Take them for what they're worth I guess.

Said it before I was able to..

[sevastras]

Agreed. If you remember early last season it was basically a big 12-6 curveball and virtually unhittable. Then he had a few bad starts and started tinkering with his mechanics. Now the curveball has a lot of lateral break an not as much vertical break. I think batters are less likely to chase it and more likely to get a piece of it now. He could probably be a decent starter with just THAT curveball and a fastball IF he had average command of both.

All of his pitches had some good movement, they just moved out of the zone or started out and never came back. He needs to start taking what Gonzalez takes, ice in his veins. I am sure he will get some more starts, but like others have said he isnt fun to watch and one of these games we arent going to be able to score 5+ runs just so he can win. I am sure TB players are scratching their head over the game. Jeez, this guy either is going to walk us or strike us out. I bet there would have been less strike outs if no one lifted the bat off their shoulder. We might still be playing and the Rays would still be walking around the bases waiting for 3 strikes to be thrown in an at bat.

[crissfan172]

I'd bet. He needs to stop messing with the cutter and curveball and stick with fastball, slider, change. Plenty of pitchers have had success with just those three pitches.

NO! He needs to get rid of the slider and stick with the curve. His slider command is terrible.

EDIT: Some numbers from last year:

HR Percentage per pitch:

Change-up: 0.00%

Four-seam: 0.23%

Curveball: 0.32%

Sinker: 0.97%

Cutter: 1.45%

Slider: 2.49%

When you leave sliders and cutters in the middle of the plate like he often does, they go a long way.

[Can_of_corn]

NO! He needs to get rid of the slider and stick with the curve. His slider command is terrible.

I don't care which one he scraps and which one he keeps, as long as one of them and the Cutter goes.

[Hank Scorpio]

I don't care which one he scraps and which one he keeps, as long as one of them and the Cutter goes.

I don't think he'll ever be successful until he has reasonable command over his fastball.

[Can_of_corn]

I don't think he'll ever be successful until he has reasonable command over his fastball.

I completely agree.

My actual full plan is for him to scrap a couple pitches then go to the minors until he can command the ones he has left.

Hopefully by scraping a couple he can devote more time and energy on the rest.

[crissfan172]

I completely agree.

My actual full plan is for him to scrap a couple pitches then go to the minors until he can command the ones he has left.

Hopefully by scraping a couple he can devote more time and energy on the rest.

Plus, Palmer suggested that throwing a cutter can negatively affect the command of you fastball.