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Arrieta's postgame comment

refjaf55

By refjaf55
in Orioles Talk

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Guest rochester

Guest rochester

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Does anyone else get really, really tired about "he has a great arm but...?" I don't care if he has the 6 Million Dollar Man arm; it is worthless is he doesn't know how to use it. Someone brought up a great analogy with Miguel Gonz?lez, who is much better although he doesn't have that golden arm. I am not going to pretend I know what Arrieta feels when he makes statements like "I'm so close to being so good and everybody knows it. And that's what's frustrating." - but, he is not so close to being good, but is consistently frustrating and predictable. Some mention relief or (gasp!) closer. I say put out feelers and see what someone will give for someone who needs a well overused cliche of a "change of scenery" or send him down, hope he does well, and then try to maximize value - I don't believe "so close to being so good" is a reason to keep throwing him out there - close only counts in hand grenades and horseshoes.

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Hallas Hangout Grand Counsel

Hallas

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Yeah, I think he was projected for the 1st round but definitely not one of the top ten picks. I've never seen a scouting report that mentioned him as possibly being a dominant starting pitcher. You guys think Jake is the only starting pitcher who throws 93-95 and is inconsistent?

He is currently ranked 5 in MLB in average fastball velocity. So, yes, his skills are special. Last season he would have ranked 7 if he qualified.

As for his curveball, it would have ranked 3rd in vertical movement had he qualified, and 15th this season.

So, no, there aren't many pitchers that have two pitches that good. Hell, there aren't many people with 1 of the 2. The pitchers that do are pretty much all true aces.

Obviously the mental game is a skill too, and it doesn't look like he'll make it in that regard. For that matter, repeating your delivery is also a skill, and again he gets failing marks for that.

But you can't say that his raw stuff is dime-a-dozen.

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333WCamden Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

333WCamden

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He is currently ranked 5 in MLB in average fastball velocity. So, yes, his skills are special. Last season he would have ranked 7 if he qualified.

As for his curveball, it would have ranked 3rd in vertical movement had he qualified, and 15th this season.

So, no, there aren't many pitchers that have two pitches that good. Hell, there aren't many people with 1 of the 2.i The pitchers that do are pretty much all true aces.

Obviously the mental game is a skill too, and it doesn't look like he'll make it in that regard. For that matter, repeating your delivery is also a skill, and again he gets failing marks for that.

But you can't say that his raw stuff is dime-a-dozen.

He could rank #1 in both of those categories and it wouldn't matter. If you can't throw the ball for a strike when you have to, it's useless.

Where did Daniel Cabrera rank...?

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JohnD Major Leaguer

JohnD

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I still think he'd make a great reliever. He does have some great stuff... sometimes. It's very inconsistent though, as has been pointed out. Sometimes he's close. It sounds to me like he has a good grasp on things. Lots of confidence and awareness, but an admission that it isn't happening yet either. Some of you guys are just brutal.

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

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I still think he'd make a great reliever. He does have some great stuff... sometimes. It's very inconsistent though, as has been pointed out. Sometimes he's close. It sounds to me like he has a good grasp on things. Lots of confidence and awareness, but an admission that it isn't happening yet either. Some of you guys are just brutal.

I really hated losing that game that way.

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Hallas Hangout Grand Counsel

Hallas

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He could rank #1 in both of those categories and it wouldn't matter. If you can't throw the ball for a strike when you have to, it's useless.

Where did Daniel Cabrera rank...?

You're right, of course, and I mentioned repeating his mechanics. But his pure stuff is undeniable.

Cabrera didn't have great movement on his curveball, actually. Arrieta's curveball blows away any of Cabrera's breaking pitches. Cabrera's fastball was #3 his first season, 15 2nd season, and not on the first page 3rd season.

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Guest rochester

Guest rochester

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Of course that doesn't mean that all those teams would be willing to put him into their rotation.

nor give up anything for him.

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Old#5fan Hangout Grand Counsel

Old#5fan

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Here are my thoughts on Arrieta. His comments are a bit odd, but sort of fit with his pitching problem.. No, I am not saying it is odd for a pitcher to have great command for an inning or two and then totally lose it. Sidney Ponson and Daniel Cabrera were fine examples of that. What I am espousing is it is a bit odd or incongruous how he looks like he is a nervous wreck when he has even one base runner on, yet when he talks he seems supremely confident. His body language does not support his commentary which seems a bit slanted towards arrogance, even if true. The counter to what he is saying has been pointed out in that he is also very close to being out of baseball, just like Ponson and Cabrera, despite his electric stuff.

I wonder about two possibilities in helping Jake that may be considered:

1. Not sure if John Smoltz's sports psychologist is still around and practicing but perhaps some therapy could help.

2. After being sent down, why not have him start pitching all the time from the stretch, sort of how Tillman has simplified his windup. Since Arrietta clearly gets way out of sync when in the stretch, get him so used to pitching that way he will be confortable all the time. I noticed in his meltdown game that as soon as he had to go to the stretch he seemed to have no clue where his pitches were going. After he self-loaded the bases by not throwing strikes, and went back to the wind up, his first two pitches were in the strike zone. The problem was so was his pitch that caught too much of the plate for a two run single chasing him from the game.

Watching him pitch is pure torture as it must be playing behind him on defense. He is the "Kyle Boller" of the Orioels. Strong arm, but lousy accuracy, poise, and consistency.

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BobDylanBundy Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

BobDylanBundy

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nor give up anything for him.

Agreed, unrealistic to expect anything worthwhile in trade return for Arrieta at this point.

Some interesting statistics....

Arrieta's 1st time thru a lineup during his horrendous 2012 season (as SP) - 163 PA, .257/.302/.388 (.691 OPS)

Arrieta's 1st time thru a lineup during his horrendous 2012 season (as RP) - 46 PA, .205/.239/.432 (.671 OPS)

Arrieta's 1st time thru a lineup during his horrendous 2013 season (as SP) - 36 PA, .194/.306/.355 (.660 OPS)

Arrieta's 2nd time thru a lineup in 2012 - 162 PA, .299/.360/.438 (.798 OPS)

Arrieta's 3rd time thru a lineup in 2012 - 111 PA, .283/.345/.515 (.861 OPS)

Arrieta's 2nd time thru a lineup in 2013 - 36 PA, .280/.444/.560 (1.004 OPS)

Arrieta's 3rd time thru a lineup in 2013 - 15 PA, .182/.400/.182 (.582 OPS)

So you splice out this specific scenario, and Arrieta has been close to dominant even in seasons in which he was one of the worst pitchers in Major League Baseball.

Not really sure why this is - perhaps opposing batters are able to adjust to his stuff over multiple PA's or he has trouble maintaining focus for extended periods of time? But regardless the results are undeniable: Arrieta is a dominant pitcher his first time thru the lineup and one of the worst in the league thereafter.

Thus, I believe the O's greatest chance of salvaging any value from him is to convert him to a short reliever or closer. No changes necessary - Arrieta would simply need to continue his established level of performance the first time thru a lineup and he'd be an ace RP.

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Old#5fan Hangout Grand Counsel

Old#5fan

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Agreed, unrealistic to expect anything worthwhile in trade return for Arrieta at this point.

Some interesting statistics....

Arrieta's 1st time thru a lineup during his horrendous 2012 season (as SP) - 163 PA, .257/.302/.388 (.691 OPS)

Arrieta's 1st time thru a lineup during his horrendous 2012 season (as RP) - 46 PA, .205/.239/.432 (.671 OPS)

Arrieta's 1st time thru a lineup during his horrendous 2013 season (as SP) - 36 PA, .194/.306/.355 (.660 OPS)

Arrieta's 2nd time thru a lineup in 2012 - 162 PA, .299/.360/.438 (.798 OPS)

Arrieta's 3rd time thru a lineup in 2012 - 111 PA, .283/.345/.515 (.861 OPS)

Arrieta's 2nd time thru a lineup in 2013 - 36 PA, .280/.444/.560 (1.004 OPS)

Arrieta's 3rd time thru a lineup in 2013 - 15 PA, .182/.400/.182 (.582 OPS)

So you splice out this specific scenario, and Arrieta has been close to dominant even in seasons in which he was one of the worst pitchers in Major League Baseball.

Not really sure why this is - perhaps opposing batters are able to adjust to his stuff over multiple PA's or he has trouble maintaining focus for extended periods of time? But regardless the results are undeniable: Arrieta is a dominant pitcher his first time thru the lineup and one of the worst in the league thereafter.

Thus, I believe the O's greatest chance of salvaging any value from him is to convert him to a short reliever or closer. No changes necessary - Arrieta would simply need to continue his established level of performance the first time thru a lineup and he'd be an ace RP.

I don't have is similar stats but from watching him pitch a lot of games it seems like Sidney Ponson had the same problem.

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Hallas Hangout Grand Counsel

Hallas

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I don't have is similar stats but from watching him pitch a lot of games it seems like Sidney Ponson had the same problem.

Sidney Ponson had very good control. He also wore his emotions on his sleeve, but in my mind they mostly affected his pitch selection, not his mechanics. When Ponson got pissed, he would just chuck his fastball down the heart of the plate and stop trying to actually fool the batter.

Arrieta unravels mechanically when he gets pissed. He may also unravel in other aspects of the game, but we wouldn't know, because he throws his fastball 4 feet away from the strike zone.

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