Nick's a magician with the bat

[Frobby]

By Bill James' Favorite Toy (there's a version on ESPN.com) Nick has somewhere between a 15-25% chance of getting to 3000 hits, depending on some assumptions you make.

I'm not sure he gets in even if he gets to 3000. The Expansion Time Bomb means HOF standards will have to go up, since it doesn't seem like anyone really wants to start inducting twice as many players. And PEDs will obscure or obliterate old standards, because in a few years we will have guys with well over 3000 hits, 500 homers, 300 wins, etc who are out, while guys with 170 wins or 1500 hits are in. That may serve as an excuse to not induct guys with Johnny Damon's career even if they get to a milestone number.

Decent bets to get to 3,000 hits before Nick:

ARod (2901, age 37)

Pujols (2265, age 33)

Beltre (2244, age 34)

Cabrera (1829, age 30)

Crawford (1664, age 31)

Reyes (1499, age 30)

Cano (1484, age 30)

Wright (1445, age 30)

[waroriole]

Decent bets to get to 3,000 hits before Nick:

ARod (2901, age 37)

Pujols (2265, age 33)

Beltre (2244, age 34)

Cabrera (1829, age 30)

Crawford (1664, age 31)

Reyes (1499, age 30)

Cano (1484, age 30)

Wright (1445, age 30)

I don't see Crawford or Reyes as having anywhere near the longevity required to get to 3,000. JMO, but Nick is a much safer bet to get there than those 2 guys. Either way, I don't think he will, and I don't think he is a HoF, but he's still a hell of a player and very fun to watch.

[Frobby]

I don't see Crawford or Reyes as having anywhere near the longevity required to get to 3,000. JMO, but Nick is a much safer bet to get there than those 2 guys.

I listed them because they are ahead of Nick's "pace." Crawford is 2 years older but 441 hits ahead, Reyes is one year older but 276 hits ahead. I agree that either could break down before getting to 3,00 hits. Truth is, so could most of the guys on the list, and odds are that some of them probably will.

[hoosiers]

I wonder the superlatives this board can conjure up for the better hitters in our lineup than the Great Markakis.

[DrungoHazewood]

Is there anyone on here who watches Markakis play and thinks "Hall of Fame Player"?

I don't think he's an inner circle HOFer. I don't think he's a sure-fire HOFer. But does he have some of the marks of an eventual HOFer? Yes. I'd bet there are several dozen HOFers, including some BBWAA inductees who didn't have Markakis' resume at his age. (Yes, you know if I can get my crippled up web browser to work I'll give you a list.)

[Mr Snuffleupagus]

Is there anyone on here who watches Markakis play and thinks "Hall of Fame Player"?

Yes...

Orioles HOF

I mean, he's breathing and has worn a uniform

[LookinUp]

Is there anyone on here who watches Markakis play and thinks "Hall of Fame Player"?

The Baines comp was previously made. I'd take Baines over Markakis to be honest.

In fairness, Nick is still young enough to have 3 or 4 of his best years in front of him. It'd be nice if the dude could get an entire offseason healthy so he could work out. I think he'll need to improve his power to be capable of making a HOF run.

For what it's worth, I don't even see Markakis as an above average defensive outfielder either. He has range like your average high schooler. I like his approach, particularly compared to our lineup, but HOFer is a huge reach absent a big step forward, IMO.

[25 Nuggets]

Everyone knows what a huge Nick fan I am, but he's going to have to pick up the pace to get 3,000 hits or make the Hall of Fame. If he had no decline at all and stayed 100% healthy, he'd reach 3,000 hits at age 38. Chances are good that, like a lot of good players, he falls somewhere short of that, and without the 3,000 hit credential he's not getting into the Hall. I think Nick is more likely to wind up in the category of Harold Baines or Johnny Damon, good hitters who weren't quite Hall-worthy.

Here's a question: provided Nick plays the majority of his career in Baltimore, where on this list do you see him ending up?

http://baltimore.orioles.mlb.com/stats/sortable.jsp?c_id=bal#sortColumn=h&sectionType=sp&playerType=ALL&statType=hitting&season=2013&season_type=ALL&game_type=%27R%27&elem=

I'd say #3 ahead of George Sisler (2295) but behind Brooks Robinson (2848).

[Frobby]

Here's a question: provided Nick plays the majority of his career in Baltimore, where on this list do you see him ending up?

http://baltimore.orioles.mlb.com/stats/sortable.jsp?c_id=bal#sortColumn=h?ionType=sp&playerType=ALL&statType=hitting&season=2013&season_type=ALL&game_type=%27R%27&elem=

I'd say #3 ahead of George Sisler (2295) but behind Brooks Robinson (2848).

I don't count Sisler anyway. For me, Orioles history starts in 1954. I think has a decent shot at accumulating more hits than Brooks. Less than 50/50, however. As a general rule of thumb, you can take the number of hits a player has before his 30th birthday, double it, and that will be pretty close to his career total. Brooks had 1,473 hits through his age 29 season, 1,375 afterwards.

[25 Nuggets]

For that to happen however, Markakis would need to play his entire career in Baltimore and I think eventually he will don another uniform.

[DrungoHazewood]

The Baines comp was previously made. I'd take Baines over Markakis to be honest.

In fairness, Nick is still young enough to have 3 or 4 of his best years in front of him. It'd be nice if the dude could get an entire offseason healthy so he could work out. I think he'll need to improve his power to be capable of making a HOF run.

For what it's worth, I don't even see Markakis as an above average defensive outfielder either. He has range like your average high schooler. I like his approach, particularly compared to our lineup, but HOFer is a huge reach absent a big step forward, IMO.

I think the high schooler comment is hyperbolic at best. He's clearly not a HOFer right now, but I'd take him over Baines. Baines had some nice rate numbers but for at least half his career he simply didn't play the field, and was on the bench for most lefties. From 1993-2001 Baines played defense for two innings total.

Here's a question: provided Nick plays the majority of his career in Baltimore, where on this list do you see him ending up?

http://baltimore.orioles.mlb.com/stats/sortable.jsp?c_id=bal#sortColumn=h&sectionType=sp&playerType=ALL&statType=hitting&season=2013&season_type=ALL&game_type='R'&elem=

I'd say #3 ahead of George Sisler (2295) but behind Brooks Robinson (2848).

Agree with Frobby. Sisler was never an Oriole. I'd count Keeler and Kelley and McGraw before I counted him. His final placement will probably depend on his #want. Brooks played '75-77 as a defense-only guy with a .550 OPS. A lot of players would have retired and missed out on his last 200 hits. Heck, Joe DiMaggio would have retired in '72 when Brooks' offense slipped below average...

I think if Nick really wanted to he's the type of hitter who could play until he was 44 in kind of a Matt Stairs kind of role. But he also might be the kind of guy who has an off year at 35 and hangs it up.

[DrungoHazewood]

Is there anyone on here who watches Markakis play and thinks "Hall of Fame Player"?

So I said I'd follow up... No, Nick isn't an obvious HOFer right now. But.

Through age 28 Paul Molitor had a 114 OPS+ and a career high rWAR of 6.2, both shy of Nick.

Max Carey is a HOFer who had a 110 OPS+ and a high of 5.1 rWAR through 28.

Lou Brock had a 110 OPS+, 22 rWAR total, and a high of 5.9 rWAR through 28.

Roberto Clemente had a 109 OPS+, a .776 OPS, and a high of 6.3 rWAR through 28.

Brooks was a bit ahead on total rWAR, but through 28 only had one season of higher value than Nick's peak and was well behind him as a hitter (107 OPS+ to 117).

Through 28 Willie Stargell trailed Nick by about 8 rWAR.

So, yes, Nick would be bucking the odds to end up in Cooperstown. But it happens.

[MachadOboutManny]

Few things in baseball are more beautiful than Nick at the plate. Keep him at leadoff please.

[sfosfan]

Few things in baseball are more beautiful than Nick at the plate. Keep him at leadoff please.

Sure. But Nate isn't too bad either, nor Brob when he plays. I love dropping Nick to third against right-handers because he's the most dependable bat. This is a nice problem to have.

[MachadOboutManny]

Sure. But Nate isn't too bad either, nor Brob when he plays. I love dropping Nick to third against right-handers because he's the most dependable bat. This is a nice problem to have.

Love the Nate, I like it at the bottom of the order to get things started and, perhaps, put some speed on the base for Nick leading off again. I want Nick to get more ABs than anyone, every game. jmo.