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It's Official, We are Contenders and Probably Favorites


brianod

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They won't make it to the postseason if they can't find some starting pitching help sooner rather than later, whether it's inside or out of the organization.
What's the matter with 4 SP with a combined ERA under 4.00 ? They are getting better with each turn of the rotation. We can win with them. We just need to fix #5 SP. Right now Garcia looks ok to me. If he fizzles out, I would rather see Johnson or Jurrjens before I made any kind of trade.
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What's the matter with 4 SP with a combined ERA under 4.00 ? They are getting better with each turn of the rotation. We can win with them. We just need to fix #5 SP. Right now Garcia looks ok to me. If he fizzles out, I would rather see Johnson or Jurrjens before I made any kind of trade.

I guess I'm still used to the confidence I had in them through the last couple months in 2012. It seems all 4 of those guys are having up & down starts so far (some really good starts & some disappointing ones as well...yes I know it's early). The consistency of their combined starts mostly end up as short outings. And they do indeed have a better defense behind them as well as a better offense to help relieve some pressure. The 5th starter is more what I meant needed to be concentrated on. I'd like to see both Johnson & Jurrjens soon myself.

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While I would like the starting pitching to lower that ERA, I'm more concerned with the length of the average start. If they get league average starting pitching for 6-7 innings rather than 5-6 innings, that would go a long way toward maximizing the benefit from the bullpen.
Here you go, innings per start

Tampa Bay: 2nd 6.36

Boston: 12th-Tie 6.00

NY: 12th-Tie 6.00

Baltimore: 19th 5.86

Toronto: 24th 5.48

Funny decimal numbers aside, essentially Tampa's starters last 2 outs longer than ours, Boston & NY, 1 more out, and Toronto 1 out less.

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I guess I'm still used to the confidence I had in them through the last couple months in 2012. It seems all 4 of those guys are having up & down starts so far (some really good starts & some disappointing ones as well...yes I know it's early). The consistency of their combined starts mostly end up as short outings. And they do indeed have a better defense behind them as well as a better offense to help relieve some pressure. The 5th starter is more what I meant needed to be concentrated on. I'd like to see both Johnson & Jurrjens soon myself.
I think you need to look up the definition of consistent. It doesn't mean perfect. The first four SP are a combined 14 QS out of 25 total. And yes their starts are short by about one out, as Tony S. points out above, when compared to the rest of the division.
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Here you go, innings per start

Tampa Bay: 2nd 6.36

Boston: 12th-Tie 6.00

NY: 12th-Tie 6.00

Baltimore: 19th 5.86

Toronto: 24th 5.48

Funny decimal numbers aside, essentially Tampa's starters last 2 outs longer than ours, Boston & NY, 1 more out, and Toronto 1 out less.

Rep given.

The O's have been getting more innings out of their starters the last couple of times through the rotation. Hopefully that keeps trending upward so they can keep O'Day, Matusz, and Johnson fresh.

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I think you need to look up the definition of consistent. It doesn't mean perfect. The first four SP are a combined 14 QS out of 25 total. And yes their starts are short by about one out, as Tony S. points out above, when compared to the rest of the division.

http://www.pressboxonline.com/story/10275/MLB-Should-Abolish-Quality-Start-From-Statistics

I'd like to see them change that to Premium Starts...7 IP with LESS than 3 runs scored. That is what I consider a quality game. What I want from our starters is consistently "perfect" starts...because I'm unreasonable.

The top 4 have been holding it together so far but you have to admit there is always room for improvement...and that's not an unreasonable expectation.

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http://www.pressboxonline.com/story/10275/MLB-Should-Abolish-Quality-Start-From-Statistics

I'd like to see them change that to Premium Starts...7 IP with LESS than 3 runs scored. That is what I consider a quality game. What I want from our starters is consistently "perfect" starts...because I'm unreasonable.

The top 4 have been holding it together so far but you have to admit there is always room for improvement...and that's not an unreasonable expectation.

Can you show me where I said they don't need to get better? You said they were inconsistent. Now you change the playing field and say they need to be consistently, 7-2. I would love for you to show me the numbers of SP who actually do that. I'm pretty sure there are only a handful, if any.
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Do the various strength of schedule ratings that people have dug up for this thread just take into account who you have played? Or do they talk home/road into account. After all, there IS a home field advantage, home teams win, what, 54% of the time and lost 46% of the time or something like that? So regardless of the specific opponents we have had, our schedule has been tougher because so much of it has been on the road. Especially when compared with Boston, who has spent a good chunk of the early season in Fenway.

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Machado has really been a game-changer for this organization. Before he came up last year we were on the fringe of contending and only there because of a lot of luck in close games. Now we are legitimately one of the best teams in the league, no luck involved.

The thing that concerns me the most right now is second base and the bullpen. Casilla/Flaherty is unacceptably bad for a contending team and there's no saying when Roberts can come back and how long he can stay on the field. I have a lot of faith in Matusz, O'Day and Johnson, but I think the rest of our pen is sketchy. We need another late inning right-handed reliever. I fear that as things stand now we are going to overuse O'Day. Strop is way too inconsistent and I'm not sold on Hunter as a viable eighth inning option.

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I maintain that the schedule has been very tough. The Angels, Redsox, Dodgers, Yankees and Blue Jays have huge payrolls compared to the O's. I don't care who's started hot and slow, if you end a 11 game road trip in California with a 3-4-5 of Trout, Pujols and Hamilton and win 3 of 4, that isn't just impressive, that is proof you are a contender imo. Oh ya, we started in Tampa and have played them at home an have won 4-6. I'm not impressed with them, they are good enough to cause you headaches but not good enough to win and they don't have the resources to do much about it.

The fallacy in all those who point out the flaws and injury traps for the Orioles is that they ignore the flaws and injury traps of the competitors. How's Tampa without Longoria? Anyone expect the Yankees to get their injured players back and have no other injuries? Anyone expect Boston to continue the pace now that they are done playing Houston?

Sorry Roy, I'm not calling you a negative nelly but given an equality of injuries, I expect the O's to win the division and maybe make noise in the playoffs. They are an imperfect team but they are the best imperfect team in the division imho.

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Can you show me where I said they don't need to get better? You said they were inconsistent. Now you change the playing field and say they need to be consistently, 7-2. I would love for you to show me the numbers of SP who actually do that. I'm pretty sure there are only a handful, if any.

I only said the most consistent thing about them was their short outings. They are mostly going 5-6 innings when they should at least be going 6-7. I don't disagree that the O's can win with those 4 guys (I did say they have had some really good starts). It just seems they mix in those good outings this year with bad to just OK starts in between. The defense, bullpen, & offense has really been doing their jobs this year as far as bailing them out of several games. And I have no idea (I could probably find them if I wasn't so lazy) how to search the numbers of top SP's that are consistently over 7 innings with less than 3 runs allowed every game. It's probably none, but again, I'm unreasonable.

They are trending upward recently in the number of innings pitched as they were at 5.54 per start by the 3rd week of April. Would love to see those guys in the Tampa range of over 6 IPS...but of good pitching. Cut down on the walks & have them miss some more bats...as well as lock in a good 5th starter.

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Starters ERA:

Boston: 5th 3.39

NY: 10th 3.70

Tampa Bay: 16th 4.20

Orioles 19th 4.48

Toronto: 28th 5.39

But there is no reason on God's earth to believe this is going to continue. Lester, Buchholz and Pettitte are not going to spend the summer dueling for the Cy Young. And you can take that to the bank.

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I only said the most consistent thing about them was their short outings. They are mostly going 5-6 innings when they should at least be going 6-7. I don't disagree that the O's can win with those 4 guys (I did say they have had some really good starts). It just seems they mix in those good outings this year with bad to just OK starts in between. The defense, bullpen, & offense has really been doing their jobs this year as far as bailing them out of several games. And I have no idea (I could probably find them if I wasn't so lazy) how to search the numbers of top SP's that are consistently over 7 innings with less than 3 runs allowed every game. It's probably none, but again, I'm unreasonable.

They are trending upward recently in the number of innings pitched as they were at 5.54 per start by the 3rd week of April. Would love to see those guys in the Tampa range of over 6 IPS...but of good pitching. Cut down on the walks & have them miss some more bats...as well as lock in a good 5th starter.

Exactly. And I'm stupid for bothering to discuss this with you.
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I only said the most consistent thing about them was their short outings. They are mostly going 5-6 innings when they should at least be going 6-7. I don't disagree that the O's can win with those 4 guys (I did say they have had some really good starts). It just seems they mix in those good outings this year with bad to just OK starts in between. The defense, bullpen, & offense has really been doing their jobs this year as far as bailing them out of several games. And I have no idea (I could probably find them if I wasn't so lazy) how to search the numbers of top SP's that are consistently over 7 innings with less than 3 runs allowed every game. It's probably none, but again, I'm unreasonable.

They are trending upward recently in the number of innings pitched as they were at 5.54 per start by the 3rd week of April. Would love to see those guys in the Tampa range of over 6 IPS...but of good pitching. Cut down on the walks & have them miss some more bats...as well as lock in a good 5th starter.

One overlooked thing is that our starters aren't failing to go 5 innings very often -- only three times in 32 games. Last year we had more than 30 starts of less than five innings. So, while the starters aren't getting that deep, they are keeping us in games almost every night.

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One overlooked thing is that our starters aren't failing to go 5 innings very often -- only three times in 32 games. Last year we had more than 30 starts of less than five innings. So, while the starters aren't getting that deep, they are keeping us in games almost every night.
Most of that 5.54 IP per game is coming from of Arrieta's 4.8 IP per start..
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