Adam Jones- Where are the homeruns?

[Frobby]

That is part of what makes Jones so fascinating. He palpably takes the weight of the world on his shoulders whenever he comes up in an RBI situation, and he personally signs every slider in the dirt a pitcher throws to him in those situations. Yet, he still comes up big at a respectable rate as those stats attest.

That simultaneously makes him awesome and frustrating.

His poor at bats are frustrating, but I'll take the guy on my team any day.

[weams]

His poor at bats are frustrating, but I'll take the guy on my team any day.

I'd draft him in my top fifteen.

[tntoriole]

His poor at bats are frustrating, but I'll take the guy on my team any day.

Yes, I am always trying to think of a comp for him and it is really difficult. I think maybe Dave Winfield or Eric Davis in his prime, but Jones is better in different ways and sometimes more frustrating in other ways. He is not in the Roberto Clemente category or the Frank Robinson or the Reggie Jackson category but is somewhere in the level of player just beneath these HOF types.

[DrungoHazewood]

Yes, I am always trying to think of a comp for him and it is really difficult. I think maybe Dave Winfield or Eric Davis in his prime, but Jones is better in different ways and sometimes more frustrating in other ways. He is not in the Roberto Clemente category or the Frank Robinson or the Reggie Jackson category but is somewhere in the level of player just beneath these HOF types.

Roberto Clemente had a 105 OPS+ and about 24 rWAR through age 27. Jones will have about a 108 OPS+ and 20 rWAR at the same point, and that's with him taking longer to establish himself and ending up with about 100 fewer games played. He's not that different than Clemente at least in terms of career value through 27, for what it's worth.

But Clemente went on to what I'd consider an atypical career, with most of his value later on. His first five years in the league he had a .706 OPS and 26 homers total, then was putting up .800+ OPSes into his late 30s. I'm sure if he'd have come up in the mid-90s people would just assume he was on something.

[Tony-OH]

Roberto Clemente had a 105 OPS+ and about 24 rWAR through age 27. Jones will have about a 108 OPS+ and 20 rWAR at the same point, and that's with him taking longer to establish himself and ending up with about 100 fewer games played. He's not that different than Clemente at least in terms of career value through 27, for what it's worth.

But Clemente went on to what I'd consider an atypical career, with most of his value later on. His first five years in the league he had a .706 OPS and 26 homers total, then was putting up .800+ OPSes into his late 30s. I'm sure if he'd have come up in the mid-90s people would just assume he was on something.

His first five year's in the league were at the age of 20-24. His power started to come at the age of 25 and developed nicely until he peaked in his early 30's and then gradually declined. I see absolutely no reason why anyone would have ever considered him on anything even if he had the same career arc in the mid-90s.

[BohKnowsBmore]

That is part of what makes Jones so fascinating. He palpably takes the weight of the world on his shoulders whenever he comes up in an RBI situation, and he personally signs every slider in the dirt a pitcher throws to him in those situations. Yet, he still comes up big at a respectable rate as those stats attest.

That simultaneously makes him awesome and frustrating.

One point I want to expand upon about Jones is that he has actually come up huge for this team in some key situations over the past few years. I feel like I've seen numerous posters, many of whom are among the best here, lament his knack for producing in garbage time or when the game isn't on the line. I think much of that perception is completely anecdotal and driven by confirmation bias. OFFNY actually had a great post about this re: HR's by Adam Jones that came in close situations and/or tied the game/gave the O's the lead (not sure on the exact parameters). Now, it's not a perfect measure by any means, but WPA, which is a rough estimate quantifying "clutchness," shows him to be 10th in the AL last season and 9th in the AL thus far in 2013. For comparison's sake, here's the current year list:

Win Probability Added (WPA)

1. Davis (BAL) 7.5

2. Cabrera (DET) 6.6

3. Trout (LAA) 4.2

4. Santana (CLE) 4.0

5. Donaldson (OAK) 3.9

6. Cano (NYY) 3.4

7. Encarnacion (TOR) 3.4

8. Kipnis (CLE) 3.2

9. Jones (BAL) 3.1

10. Bautista (TOR) 2.8

Like I said, not perfect, and Jones can be quite frustrating, but he is certainly a big-time positive to this team.

[BohKnowsBmore]

His first five year's in the league were at the age of 20-24. His power started to come at the age of 25 and developed nicely until he peaked in his early 30's and then gradually declined. I see absolutely no reason why anyone would have ever considered him on anything even if he had the same career arc in the mid-90s.

Good point. It would be akin to accusing Machado of being "on something" were he to put up ~15 HR's next season then 25+ in subsequent years. Actually, looking at Clemente's numbers, it appears that his power followed a similar pattern that some have pointed out for Manny. He hit 2B/3B at a higher rate (assuming my quick math is right) when he was younger, then much of those XBH's turned to HR's as he got older and added power.

[justice98]

One point I want to expand upon about Jones is that he has actually come up huge for this team in some key situations over the past few years. I feel like I've seen numerous posters, many of whom are among the best here, lament his knack for producing in garbage time or when the game isn't on the line. I think much of that perception is completely anecdotal and driven by confirmation bias. OFFNY actually had a great post about this re: HR's by Adam Jones that came in close situations and/or tied the game/gave the O's the lead (not sure on the exact parameters). Now, it's not a perfect measure by any means, but WPA, which is a rough estimate quantifying "clutchness," shows him to be 10th in the AL last season and 9th in the AL thus far in 2013. For comparison's sake, here's the current year list:

Win Probability Added (WPA)

1. Davis (BAL) 7.5

2. Cabrera (DET) 6.6

3. Trout (LAA) 4.2

4. Santana (CLE) 4.0

5. Donaldson (OAK) 3.9

6. Cano (NYY) 3.4

7. Encarnacion (TOR) 3.4

8. Kipnis (CLE) 3.2

9. Jones (BAL) 3.1

10. Bautista (TOR) 2.8

Like I said, not perfect, and Jones can be quite frustrating, but he is certainly a big-time positive to this team.

Indeed, people need to get off his case. It seems folks have a short leash with Jones that's not quite justified, IMO. He's earned better.

[Babypowder]

I'd draft him in my top fifteen.

You think he's one of the top 15 players in MLB?

[Redskins Rick]

You think he's one of the top 15 players in MLB?

I do.......

[weams]

You think he's one of the top 15 players in MLB?

Position playing hitters. Yes.

[Can_of_corn]

Position playing hitters. Yes.

He wouldn't be my first pick from the Orioles.

[DrungoHazewood]

You think he's one of the top 15 players in MLB?

Position playing hitters. Yes.

Just for reference, he's 38th in the league in rWAR, 35th in fWAR.

[Babypowder]

Just for reference, he's 38th in the league in rWAR, 35th in fWAR.

That is where I was going with this...

and I thought we were including pitchers too which made it even more of a head scratcher.

He'd make my top 15 outfielders.

[Say O!]

How much of Jones' WAR is affected by negative defensive value?

Although he does not steal much, Jones provides good value on the basepath's through taking extra bases.

And although a good, but not great hitter, Jones plays every day.

If one were to believe that Jones was a neutral defender, he likely jumps into the top 10 OFs.