Bad News on Chen

[wildcard]

Here is my guess:

Tuesday

Belfiore down, Navarro up and Navarro starts at 2nd for the next three games

Chen to the DL, Burnett up

Tuesday - Tillman vs SD

Wednesday - Garcia or Hammel vs SD

Thursday - OFF (Gonzalez rehab game in minors)

Friday - Hammel or Garcia vs Rays

Saturday

Navarro or Flaherty down, Jurrjens up

Saturday - Jurrjens vs Rays

Sunday - Tillman vs Rays

Monday - Garcia vs Yankees

Tuesday

Burnett down, (Gonzalez or ? starter added)

Tuesday - Depends on how Gonzo does

Notes: Jurrjens bad start for Norfolk was in Syracuse where with the wind chill it was in the the 30's. Baseball is not supposed to be a winter sport.

[Rene88]

From the little I have seen, Burnett has value and could be a solid contributor.

[Loophole]

What really bugs me about this is that it all but assured Freddy Garcia is gonna keep a spot for at least a month. I didn't think he'd be up for more than a few starts, and I don't have much hope for him in the future.

[LA2]

I think this is the type of situation that will embolden Dan and Buck to call up Gausman sooner than they would have otherwise. Especially if it lingers as Roch speculates it could, beyond a few weeks. But Jurrjens is due a shot or they lose him, so he seems the most likely first.

Hopefully Gausman can play the role of precocious rookie on playoff contender this year, as Manny did so well last year. Might happen a little sooner than it did w/ Manny though!

And what position have they been secretly training Gausman to play?

[Il BuonO]

And what position have they been secretly training Gausman to play?

Ace of the staff? :slytf:

[wildcard]

What really bugs me about this is that it all but assured Freddy Garcia is gonna keep a spot for at least a month. I didn't think he'd be up for more than a few starts, and I don't have much hope for him in the future.

Not necessarily. Wada could take Garcia's rotation spot depending on how both pitches. It could happen in a couple of weeks. Hammel, Tillman, Gonzalez, Jurrjens, and Wada.

[JayThomas]

We really are snakebitten.

In the best scenario, in terms of our original starting rotation, we have to hope for the following:

Tillman continues his resurgence

Hammel is not hurt and can regain some of the mojo from 2012

Gonzalez blister heals quickly, he is not otherwise hurt, and he can regain some of the mojo from 2012

Chen can come back in a month and pitch like he has since he's been with us

Someone can fill in the #5 spot.

Really, Tillman is the only guy from the original rotation at this point that I can believe in. Incredible that Arrieta is down, Chen and Gonzalez are out, and Hammel and Gonzalez are suspiciously ineffective.

I'm guessing that

1) Garcia won't last too many more starts

2) One of Hammel or Gonzalez will be shown to be injured

3) Jurrjens won't last very many starts

4) Wada will come up big, starting in June

5) Chen will be back in a month and will be big

6) Tillman will continue to impress

So by mid-June I think we're looking at

Tillman, Chen, Wada, Gonzalez/Hammel, one of Johnson/Arrieta/Matusz.

I'm hoping Matusz gets his chance here. He's earned it. He's done everything they've asked of him. He came into spring training ready and he performed. I don't think BM is a case of the 'peter principal'. I think he can start and I think he's our best option right now. Belfiore can come back up if they think they need 3 lefties in the BP.

[Tbone83]

It goes without saying that the offense and bullpen will have to continue to be as good as they have been. I am not envisioning many low scoring affairs for the next month or more.

[Brooks The Great]

We really are snakebitten.

In the best scenario, in terms of our original starting rotation, we have to hope for the following:

Tillman continues his resurgence

Hammel is not hurt and can regain some of the mojo from 2012

Gonzalez blister heals quickly, he is not otherwise hurt, and he can regain some of the mojo from 2012

Chen can come back in a month and pitch like he has since he's been with us

Someone can fill in the #5 spot.

Really, Tillman is the only guy from the original rotation at this point that I can believe in. Incredible that Arrieta is down, Chen and Gonzalez are out, and Hammel and Gonzalez are suspiciously ineffective.

I'm guessing that

1) Garcia won't last too many more starts

2) One of Hammel or Gonzalez will be shown to be injured

3) Jurrjens won't last very many starts

4) Wada will come up big, starting in June

5) Chen will be back in a month and will be big

6) Tillman will continue to impress

So by mid-June I think we're looking at

Tillman, Chen, Wada, Gonzalez/Hammel, one of Johnson/Arrieta/Matusz.

I'm hoping Matusz gets his chance here. He's earned it. He's done everything they've asked of him. He came into spring training ready and he performed. I don't think BM is a case of the 'peter principal'. I think he can start and I think he's our best option right now. Belfiore can come back up if they think they need 3 lefties in the BP.

I agree with all of your scenarios, with the exception of Matusz. I think Buck really values him as his top lefty in the pen, and wouldn't want him to start unless we have several injuries and we're really desperate. As Buck would say about it, "You don't want to rob Peter to pay Paul." I've heard him say that exact thing about Matusz, and I really believe he feels strongly about keeping Matusz in the pen.

[crawjo]

I wonder if the Orioles might think about trading for Rick Porcello. The Tigers should probably give his spot to Smyly anyway and maybe we could get him for pennies on the dollar. Just a thought....

[LookitsPuck]

Porcello is still worth quite a bit.

His last 3 starts were pretty promising: 19 1/3 IP, 3.72 ERA, 203/257/333 - 590 OPS.

If you can get him cheaply, by all means. I like the kid. The problem with him is that he allows way too many hits (10.8 H/9 over last 3 years, 1.443 WHIP). He'd be an *okay* #5 starter.

[brianod]

I agree with all of your scenarios, with the exception of Matusz. I think Buck really values him as his top lefty in the pen, and wouldn't want him to start unless we have several injuries and we're really desperate. As Buck would say about it, "You don't want to rob Peter to pay Paul." I've heard him say that exact thing about Matusz, and I really believe he feels strongly about keeping Matusz in the pen.

I agree with you and Buck. We can compete with average starters and a shut down pen. There is so much depth I believe we can continue to compete with a starting rotation in flux. I also think that Garcia deserves a few more tries. Good organizations don't give up on someone after one really good performance and a below average one. Britton, Arietta, Wada, Jurgens and Johnson all could be this years Gonzalez. DD showed admirable restraint when it came to Saunders. He's now 3-4 with an era of 5.51 and a whip of 1.521. Trading for an average starter would be a waste of resources born out of panic. We simply don't need to and I have faith in our management that we won't. Now, if we can obtain a stud, talk to me.

[Brooks The Great]

I wonder if the Orioles might think about trading for Rick Porcello. The Tigers should probably give his spot to Smyly anyway and maybe we could get him for pennies on the dollar. Just a thought....

Forget Porcello, I'd love to get Smyly. I know it's not likely, but I can still hope the O's try.

[SeaBird]

He should be forced to have tommy John surgery whether he needs it or not.Maybe he comes back and relearns how to pitch and pitch PROPERLY.

It's a longshot, but no more so than him figuring it out pitching for the tides over the next couple weeks.

Yup! Whether he needs it or not, give it to 'em. Sounds like a plan. Even though TJ is for elbow issues, giving him an unnecessary surgery will teach 'em. And while they are at it, they can look to see if there are a few parts they can surgically remove. That'll really show 'em! Hah!

Calling Doctor Fine, Doctor Fine?

[wildcard]

The thing with Garcia is that though he might not stay in the rotation he may make a very good reliever. So far he is lights out for 30 pitches or about two innings. If that continues I could see the O's keeping him in the pen and sending Matusz to Norfolk to stretch out.

How lefty Wada pitches could play into that too. He may be a better reliever than starter. Who knows. What we do know is the O's need effective starters no matter where they find them.