Is this why McPhail is delaying on Bedard?

[wesamos]

What too many people don't seem to comprehend is that Bedard and Roberts are our ONLY real trading chips. It is imperative that MacPhail gets the "best" deal for them, not just a "nice" one, like what he got for Tejada. Thankfully, he appears to realize this.

I agree that we need the "best" deals for these guys. I just believe we loose value if these guys are not traded by the start of the season. Too many bad things could happen leaving Andy with less than what he could of got now.

I'm not going to be upset until the season starts and these guys still our on the team. It does nothing but delay the rebuilding process.

[Guest rochester]

What too many people don't seem to comprehend is that Bedard and Roberts are our ONLY real trading chips. It is imperative that MacPhail gets the "best" deal for them, not just a "nice" one, like what he got for Tejada. Thankfully, he appears to realize this.

You could not be more correct...and I still hold out hope that this will all flush itself out for the best...but it's the anxiety. I tend to think that AM is a top-rate negotiate (poker player?), which is a BIG redeeming factor for PA, and that the lack of true leaks and planned ones is a professional choice.

I also believe that he listened carefully at the org meeting in Florida - and that there is consensus in many instances with the baseball folks of who and why. It doesn't appear to me that this has been the case in years, which is not the fault of, say, Duq and Flanny though.

[wildcard]

What too many people don't seem to comprehend is that Bedard and Roberts are our ONLY real trading chips. It is imperative that MacPhail gets the "best" deal for them, not just a "nice" one, like what he got for Tejada. Thankfully, he appears to realize this.

I disagree with this. The young pitchers, Reimold or Scott and Moore or Costanzo all have trade value. They can be traded on a one for one basic for young position players.

I agree that Bedard and Roberts are the only players that are likely to bring multiple quality prospects.

The point is there is more then one way to go. If McPhail does not get the return he wants for Bedard and/or Roberts he may be to this 2nd option.

[El Gordo]

I've got no problem with discussion. Want me to spend a few minutes cutting and pasting a few hundred examples of the difference between discussion and criticizing people for things that - A - we don't know is true or false and - B - haven't happened yet? You'll note that I've never once criticized the 400+ threads where you and a myriad of others discuss ad naseum trade scenarios (even when they repeat over and over again). Why? Because that is what this board is about.

Typing "MacPhail is asking too much for Bedard" isn't what this board is about IMHO. This statement isn't stated as opinion. It is stated as fact by someone who feels they know more than they actually know. Unless you're in his head, you don't know what is going on right now with MacPhail and his demands for Bedard. This may all be a bluff based on a deadline or he may actually believe Bedard is worth XXX or the reports we're getting may not be totally accurate or there may be some other explanation that I'm not even thinking about.

You may believe that, but I certainly don't and most analysts wouldn't either. I wrote at the time of the deal that I thought Aybar was really overrated and I was very worried about Santana's road numbers so not everyone thought this was a comparable package at the time.

No, that isn't what I'm saying. BB's source, by his own admission, is not nearly as in the loop as he used to be. His source is also looking at losing his job soon. It would be easy to imagine a situation where his source is now connecting dots a lot more than he used to have to and that his bent while connecting those dots is negative. Now, I don't know if that is true at all. It is interesting that the info coming from Peace, Belkast, Dynamite, and Sonny76 hasn't really matched the info coming from BB's source lately (different subject matters is what I mean). Most of the stuff from BB's source has been very peripheral stuff lately. It appeared BB's source didn't know a lot about the Tejada trade based on the posts from that time period (though there could be another explanation).

BB doesn't have to get more specific if he doesn't want to (and I'll never pester him), but his statement about this deal was very cryptic IMO so I'm not taking it at face value until I see more info from another source or clarification. Again, I would be upset too if I was BB and my source for info was being boxed out of the game so I don't want this to appear like I'm negative on BB. I have really appreciated all the info he has posted over the years and what has happened sucks for him and his source.

I totally agree with you VAtech. Spot on!

[sevens]

What too many people don't seem to comprehend is that Bedard and Roberts are our ONLY real trading chips. It is imperative that MacPhail gets the "best" deal for them, not just a "nice" one, like what he got for Tejada. Thankfully, he appears to realize this.

At what point does the nice deal become the best deal ? Surely the other teams will put up deals that are their best offer and the O's think it is just a Eventually we get the possible out come of 2 draft picks as the best deal possible.

This team needs to build for the furture and what if's and maybe scenarios of that better deal become just that What if's

I hope it does not come to that

[NCRaven]

To say that VaTech called BB a liar is ridiculous. He did no such thing. He simply pointed out that it is the nature of our insiders info that it is sometimes wrong, for any number of reasons and the BB is appears not to be a fan of AM. That doesn't mean he said or implied that BB is making anything up.

I don't know if AM is "asking for too much or not." And, I don't believe any person posting on this board really knows the specifics of any offers the Orioles have either received from or made to other teams.

[olehippi]

I disagree with this. The young pitchers, Reimold or Scott and Moore or Costanzo all have trade value. They can be traded on a one for one basic for young position players.

I agree that Bedard and Roberts are the only players that are likely to bring multiple quality prospects.

The point is there is more then one way to go. If McPhail does not get the return he wants for Bedard and/or Roberts he may be to this 2nd option.

My point was that MacPhail has to do this right, and we agree about Bedard and Roberts. But, don't you think trading prospects for prospects would be somewhat self-defeating for a team like the O's, who already have a lack of legitimate prospects in their Mil system? This is the reason we have to get the maximum possible return...both in quality and quantity....for the chips we do have.

The only other trade options I see would be dumping guys like Huff, Peyton, Millar, etc. and they won't get us much in return.

[Lucky Jim]

No offense to SG or BB, but Vatech has just hit back to back to back home runs with these assessments/statements. IMO, excellent posts.

Yep. Agreed. No one is saying - or has ever said - that speculation has no place on here. Rather, a lot of us who pipe up when speculation or rumor is treated as fact get lambasted for it. Then we're accused of being pollyanna-ish and/or naive. Further, simple skepticism with regard to inside information...or even noting the way bias has seemed to creep into BB's posts...is hardly a personal attack or character assassination. They're simply variables in the process of understanding what's going on behind closed doors.

I was also against the Santana/Aybar trade: I was unconvinced by Aybar and scared of Santana's splits. In order to pull the trigger, I required one more prospect in order to hedge risk. I still think that approach is prudent. And I think time has proven me correct.

The truth remains, that - even with insider sources - we simply don't have enough reliable information to know, with any significant degree of certainty, what the trade landscape looks like right now. Which isn't to degrade or devalue our insiders...on the contrary, this board is that much better for having inside information. Unquestionably.

Frankly, I'll take the fact that VT and 1970 - who I consider level-headed, empirically-minded posters - are cautious and hesitant to rush to judgment as a sign that this is the best position to take with regard to the uncertainties of the off-season.

[Lucky Jim]

This was always based off of reported offers to him...Those reports were false.

Yea, who would have known the Cubs would be this stupid...No chance you thought we would get that package back for Trax.

Aybar/Santana had more value than the package we got(or at least as much value)...Easy to look at it in hindsight and even in hindsight, it is way to early.

It is more of a reaction based on the offer BB is hinting at saying is on the board.

Doesn't this completely verify what VT is saying? The point is, when there's no certainty, assuming the worst doesn't, necessarily, generate solid predictions. Further, it leads to criticism of folks who it would appear, in hindsight, needn't or shouldn't have been criticized. It's the same argument I've had with SG before, as well.

Neither is meant as a criticism, necessarily. It just seems that ever bit of rumor, gossip or innuendo creates a whole new reality for some posters. And thus gets treated as a first principle or foundation for all kinds of assertions. Perhaps the if or hint of contingency in this kind of analysis is implied. I'm not convinced, however. Perhaps. I remain unconvinced.

[Sports Guy]

Doesn't this completely verify what VT is saying? The point is, when there's no certainty, assuming the worst doesn't, necessarily, generate solid predictions. Further, it leads to criticism of folks who it would appear, in hindsight, needn't or shouldn't have been criticized. It's the same argument I've had with SG before, as well.

Neither is meant as a criticism, necessarily. It just seems that ever bit of rumor, gossip or innuendo creates a whole new reality for some posters. And thus gets treated as a first principle or foundation for all kinds of assertions. Perhaps the if or hint of contingency in this kind of analysis is implied. I'm not convinced, however. Perhaps. I remain unconvinced.

Until they prove different, I will always assume the worst with this organization.

I have no reason to believe things are different just based off of AM's words...His actions will lead me to believe it, not his words.

They don't deserve any benefit of the doubt.

[T2E2C]

A higher price for Santana could set a higher return for Bedard.

http://yankees.lhblogs.com/2008/01/04/the-latest-from-chairman-hank/

UNFORTUNATELY, i think it has little to do with what we will be able to fetch for Bedard. I wish that it would; but it won't. It's not like arbitration or an arbitrated value. It's much more like a "one-off" situation.

It will be determined more by the unique situation of the team that we are trading with. Again, unfortunately.

[utvolzac]

I'm willing to give MacPhail the benefit of the doubt, because I think so far he has done an excellent job and exceeded our expectations (as listed in Va Tech's posts).

However, if we go into opening day with Bedard and Roberts still on the roster, then I'm going to be lividly pissed. IMO, the Seattle package is fair for Bedard, I can't figure out why Morrow would be a deal breaker. If MacPhail wants to try and squeeze more out of Seattle or a another team fine. As long as he knows when enough is enough and takes the best package available.

We went into this off-season with the intention of finally rebuilding. Tejada is gone, we need to finish the job. Contractually Bedard doesn't need to be traded, but as far as the good of our organization goes, he does. I think it's an absolute necessity to trade Bedard, we need the 3-4 good young players he will bring back to facilitate the rebuilding process.

Even if MacPhail could convince Bedard to an extension during the season, i think it would be a disaster. Since as far as our organization and lack of impact talent in the farm system and gaping holes on the MLB roster goes.....Package of young talent > Bedard + extension.

[wesamos]

To say that VaTech called BB a liar is ridiculous. He did no such thing. He simply pointed out that it is the nature of our insiders info that it is sometimes wrong, for any number of reasons and the BB is appears not to be a fan of AM. That doesn't mean he said or implied that BB is making anything up.

I don't know if AM is "asking for too much or not." And, I don't believe any person posting on this board really knows the specifics of any offers the Orioles have either received from or made to other teams.

You are right. Nobody knows what Andy is asking for. It is useless to speculate until the start of the season. Now if the season starts and Bedard is still on the team it is safe to assume he was "asking for too much" or he would be traded. I refuse to believe quality packages have not been offered for Bedard. He is a stud. Maybe Andy's strategy of holding out for some "knock your socks off" package will work and everybody will be excited and think he is GOD. However maybe it won't work and we end up getting less than what could be had this off season. We will have to wait and find out because the season has not started yet. There still is some time. I do think that he is playing with fire right now. It might be great but it could blow up in your face.

I just hope something gets done before the season because I feel other pitchers will become available and our market will likely shrink not get better.

[utvolzac]

UNFORTUNATELY, i think it has little to do with what we will be able to fetch for Bedard. I wish that it would; but it won't. It's not like arbitration or an arbitrated value. It's much more like a "one-off" situation.

It will be determined more by the unique situation of the team that we are trading with. Again, unfortunately.

I agree if, I could care less if Santana goes to NY or Boston, unless Angelos waives the no trading in the division tag on Bedard. The only way it really helps us is if the loser of the Santana sweepstakes ups the value for Bedard in a panic move.

[Lucky Jim]

Until they prove different, I will always assume the worst with this organization.

I have no reason to believe things are different just based off of AM's words...His actions will lead me to believe it, not his words.

They don't deserve any benefit of the doubt.

You still don't get it. I don't assume one way or the other. I don't judge until the actions have played out. I'm not giving anyone the benefit of the doubt. I'm simply not judging based on incomplete information, especially when there is time still left on the clock.

I don't care what AM says, either. But you're judging his actions (i.e., "he's waiting too long," "he's asking for too much," "he's made a mistake") when, in fact, there's no proof of any of the things he's been accused of. The Trachsel scenario and the Aybar/Santana trade are two prime examples.

You're making judgments w/o seeing the whole field. And to me, that's nearly always a mistake.

Now, it's not a mistake to analyze incomplete information, play with hypotheticals, or attempt to speculate. But it should be treated as such.