Two Guy's we should think about

[davearm]

Anybody want to revise their opinion now that Kevin Kouzmanoff was traded for an established young bigleaguer (Josh Barfield)?

I'd say that guy is in the same ballpark as some of these other 1B prospects we've been tossing around.

Like I said before, even the blocked ones still sell for full price. And that price is higher than second-tier AA pitching.

[Pedro Cerrano]

I think it's a common misconception on this board that simply because a player is proverbially "blocked" that we can get him for .50 on the dollar. GMs aren't stupid (at least most aren't). If they have a good or great player that is blocked they will make the necessary moves to ensure they get good value for their players. They either move the guy doing the blocking (Thome) or they do their best to make sure that the blocked prospect is still being moved for equal value. I'm sure many GMs inquried about Ryan Howard when it appeared Thome's contract was not moveable but Gillick, like a good GM, stayed put and worked things out.

The idea of swooping in and obtaining a blocked prospect for next to nothing is an antiquated notion particularly because great prospects have so much more value in the era of big bucks free agency.

Just my two cents of course since I THINK this is what this debate is all about.

[Pedro Cerrano]

The other debate seems to be that Os fans overvalue Os prospects. I think, as a general principle, that most fans overvalue their own teams' prospects.

[Brando]

How about Daniel Cabrera and Liz for Teahen, DeJesus, and Huber?

I know...wake me up...I'm dreaming.

[NoVaO]

Anybody want to revise their opinion now that Kevin Kouzmanoff was traded for an established young bigleaguer (Josh Barfield)?

I'd say that guy is in the same ballpark as some of these other 1B prospects we've been tossing around.

Like I said before, even the blocked ones still sell for full price. And that price is higher than second-tier AA pitching.

Actually Kouzmanoff is a pretty superior player to Huber.

To compare, over the last 3 years for Koumanoff and the last 4 for Huber:

BA/OBP/OPS

Kouzmanoff

04 (A) - .330/.394/.920

05 (A+) - .339/.401/.992

06 (AA) - .389/.447/1.107

06 (AAA) - .351/.413/1.032

Huber

03 (A+) - .284/.370/.884

03 (AA) - .264/.350/.775

04 (AA) - .271/.414/.901

05 (AA) - .343/.432/1.002 -- outlier??

05 (AAA) - .274/.374/.905

06 (AAA) - .281/.361/.845

Iso Power/HR%/K%

K

04 - .250/3.7%/14%

05 - .252/4.2%/18%

06 - .271/5.5%/12.4%

06 - .268/5.5%/9.2%

Huber

03 - .230/4.3%/14%

03 - .161/2.7%/24%

04 - .216/2.7%/19%

05 - .227/4%/18%

05 - .126/5.3%/25%

06 - .203/3.8%/23%

Bottom line here is that Kouzmanoff can flat out hit. He won't walk as much but he hits for an incredibly high average...he hits to all parts of the field as well. He hits for more power. His K rate is very good for a power hitter and much better than Huber's. He also has done this in a pitchers' leagues.

Huber struggles to hit for a good average at minor league levels and it isn't a good combination when that player also strikes out at a high rate. He also seems like he has trouble adjusting as he moves up each level. He's got a good eye and some pop, but he looks like a Craig Wilson best-case scenario.

Josh Bard is a nice young player. He had a .741 OPS last year, but he looks real solid to me. It was a pretty good trade, but I would rather have Kouzmanoff. I'm also not saying being blocked dramatically lowers a player's value, but I do think it is a small factor.

I would much rather have Olson or Liz than Huber because Huber isn't that good. Carter, on the other hand, is worth Olson or Liz. Kouzmanoff is a much better prospect than either two however.

[davearm]

Dave, maybe you should check your facts before NoVa buries you next time. A couple of other things. A decent arm was sent along with Kouzmanoff. Also, Kouzmanoff is a 3B so that's also added value. I don't revise a thing. I stick by my contention that the Royals would jump on a Liz or Olson for Huber deal.

I checked facts with BaseballAmerica, John Sickels, and scout.com.

They all list Huber above Kouzmanoff in their prospect ratings.

They all list Huber above Shealy too, and Shealy also has superior stats.

I didn't think you guys were so simple-minded as to look at this with your stat-blinders on.

[Sports Guy]

It's only unbelievable because you overvalue Liz and Olson.

Actually, you overvalue Huber.

[Sports Guy]

I checked facts with BaseballAmerica, John Sickels, and scout.com.

They all list Huber above Kouzmanoff in their prospect ratings.

They all list Huber above Shealy too, and Shealy also has superior stats.

I didn't think you guys were so simple-minded as to look at this with your stat-blinders on.

Were those as of right now or from before the season? My guess is you are talking before the season and Huber dropped off this year.

[davearm]

Were those as of right now or from before the season? My guess is you are talking before the season and Huber dropped off this year.

Huber got yanked around this year, is what happened.

He's still amongst the top 10 1B prospects in baseball, and he's ML-ready. Blocked or not, a guy like that doesn't come cheaply.

Case in point is this Kouzmanoff trade.

[Sports Guy]

Huber got yanked around this year, is what happened.

He's still amongst the top 10 1B prospects in baseball, and he's ML-ready. Blocked or not, a guy like that doesn't come cheaply.

Case in point is this Kouzmanoff trade.

You didn't answer the question..When were those rankings done? This offseason or before the season started?

BTW, Liz or Olson have more value than DBat and Affedlt.

[NoVaO]

I checked facts with BaseballAmerica, John Sickels, and scout.com.

They all list Huber above Kouzmanoff in their prospect ratings.

They all list Huber above Shealy too, and Shealy also has superior stats.

I didn't think you guys were so simple-minded as to look at this with your stat-blinders on.

I'm not going to disagree with you that he got jerked around a little bit, but the fact that he had a very down year (OPS actually .829, not .845) means his value will be lower.

You should also realize that his rankings this year are based off a year in which he hit .343/.432/.570/1.002 in AA and put up good numbers initially in AAA. However, that AA year was an outlier in batting average.

And through all this, you are ignoring that by mid-season, Liz was showing up on top-100 prospect lists while Huber was not. Going into this season, Huber was rated a B+ by Sickles, who seems to really like him a lot. Olson was rated a B. I would think the Royals would make that trade off considering what each player did last year and what their needs are.

Also, Kouzmanoff showed up at #13 on the Eastern League prospect list, indicating he made a big jump in prospect status last year. Huber did not make the cut for the PCL. He was #10 in the Texas League going into the year.

[Sports Guy]

I know BA & Sickels websites well enough. Those rankings are done before the season so it's ludicrous to hold them up as the be all and end all comparison. They hold some weight but as any reasonable person knows, things change. I will bet that Liz is ranked in the top 100 this year and it's doubtful that Huber is.

Right, you can even make the argument that the Royals should kick in someone else if it is Liz.

End the day, the Royals would have to make this trade and the Orioles should think about doing it but neccassarily jump on it.

[davearm]

Dave has dug into a position. His original position being that Liz or Olson wouldn't be enough to bring back Huber. He's just being stubborn and inflexible. From the looks of it, it's not going to change. Come to think of it, I've never seen him concede an argument. He usually just stops posting in a thread that he's clearly lost.

The funny thing is that he's using BA & Sickels website as an argument for Huber's value over Liz when each of those sights, after their pre-season rankings have mentioned Liz as a potential "special" pitcher. I would think they haven't tossed that word around too much. Both sites clearly love Liz's stuff and potential. He's a guy who basically came out of nowhere this past season so it's understandable why he wasn't highly ranked going into this season.

I generally stop posting when it's clear nobody's mind is ever going to be changed, and/or when there's nothing new to be said. Seems to me we've reached both of those points here.

I still think I'm right about all of this, if for no other reason than because I can look at all of these players objectively, and you guys can't. I'm looking at both the good and the bad.

You're looking at just the bad on Huber, and just the good on Olson/Liz. Nowhere is it mentioned that Liz has some serious command issues, features only 2 pitches, and will likely be used as a reliever *IF* he makes the bigs. Nowhere is it mentioned that Olson is considered a low-ceiling back-of-the-rotation guy that's neither overpowering with velocity nor dazzling with stuff.

I found it pretty interesting that the just-out BA ratings and analysis shows neither guy in the O's rotation in 2010. That tends to confirm my read on these guys. They're not all that.

Now could I be overvaluing Huber? Perhaps. It's difficult to guess at how much his stock has fallen, but it was very high coming into 2006.

But you guys are definitely not providing an honest, accurate assessment of Liz or Olson.

[Sports Guy]

I generally stop posting when it's clear nobody's mind is ever going to be changed, and/or when there's nothing new to be said. Seems to me we've reached both of those points here.

I still think I'm right about all of this, if for no other reason than because I can look at all of these players objectively, and you guys can't. I'm looking at both the good and the bad.

You're looking at just the bad on Huber, and just the good on Olson/Liz. Nowhere is it mentioned that Liz has some serious command issues, features only 2 pitches, and will likely be used as a reliever *IF* he makes the bigs. Nowhere is it mentioned that Olson is considered a low-ceiling back-of-the-rotation guy that's neither overpowering with velocity nor dazzling with stuff.

I found it pretty interesting that the just-out BA ratings and analysis shows neither guy in the O's rotation in 2010. That tends to confirm my read on these guys. They're not all that.

Now could I be overvaluing Huber? Perhaps. It's difficult to guess at how much his stock has fallen, but it was very high coming into 2006.

But you guys are definitely not providing an honest, accurate assessment of Liz or Olson.

Maybe because they think they will get dealt. Maybe because they think Liz and/or may be a big time closer..In fact, i believe BA rated Liz as the 5th best closer prospect in baseball.

And that is still enough to trade for Huber.

I think you are overlooking that the Royals are loaded at first, that they need pitching desperately and that pitching is a bigger commodity than positional talent.

When looking at the big picture, the only reason the Royals don't make this trade is because well, they are the Royals.

[NoVaO]

I don't think I would even think about it. I was higher on Shealy. Anyway, although Huber fits a position of need, I feel we can get comparable hitters for a whole lot less than Liz or Olson. Not necesarily 1B, but when it comes down to it, Gibbons is probably as good or better than Huber defensively and I'll take my chances on someone for cheaper who can hit like Huber but play the OF or catch or DH. I'm repeating myself, but it looks like we are picking up a 6 year minor league FA (J.R. House) who, IMO, is at least as good a hitting prospect as Huber. That costs us zilcho! I'd be interested in Huber but at the right (cheap) price.

Where did you hear that? That would be great if true.