It's past time to move Davis up in the order

[Thyrl]

I post this more often then scOtt posts Jethro Tull's My God.

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/17/795946/optimizing-your-lineup-by

I've heard and seen this before and should probably just break down and buy the book, but it sounds like this is based on historical data. Wouldn't that data be tainted by the fact that most teams used their best hitters (combination of avg and power) in the 3 spot?

Wouldn't 4 and 5 come up with guys on base more often because 4 and 5 typically hit behind the best hitter on the team?

If you moved your best hitter to 4th wouldn't 5 and 6 probably come up with guys on base more often than your (now) 4th hitter?

[Can_of_corn]

A lot of the work on lineups has been done by computer simulation since it is very easy to plug stats into a computer and have it spit out 1,000 seasons worth of data.

Also yes, buy the Book. Don't screw up like me and buy a digital version, buy an actual physical copy.

[DrungoHazewood]

A lot of the work on lineups has been done by computer simulation since it is very easy to plug stats into a computer and have it spit out 1,000 seasons worth of data.

Also yes, buy the Book. Don't screw up like me and buy a digital version, buy an actual physical copy.

What's wrong with the digital version? I have a physical copy, but thought it might be good to also have it on my Kindle which I have with me a lot more often.

[Can_of_corn]

What's wrong with the digital version? I have a physical copy, but thought it might be good to also have it on my Kindle which I have with me a lot more often.

Nothing is wrong with the digital copy, mine is formatted correctly and all the information is there.

I personally prefer to physically thumb through a book of that type. That and to me, the graphs are lacking a bit on my Kindle Keyboard.

[MachadOboutManny]

Why wouldnt the hitter our oppositions fears the most, by far, be hitting 5th. It is ridiculous. He has to be moved up. Jones has some of the worst ABs in all of baseball, he throws ABs away all the time, and thats him and I like him (I have to say to the sensitive OH), but he doesn't take advantage of the protection Davis provides --- someone else could. He should be batting 3rd, but no lower than 4th. Obviously.

:thumbsup1:

[ledzepp8]

Oh Lord isn't there a game thread?

[luismatos4prez]

Why wouldnt the hitter our oppositions fears the most, by far, be hitting 5th. It is ridiculous. He has to be moved up. Jones has some of the worst ABs in all of baseball, he throws ABs away all the time, and thats him and I like him (I have to say to the sensitive OH), but he doesn't take advantage of the protection Davis provides --- someone else could. He should be batting 3rd, but no lower than 4th. Obviously.

:thumbsup1:

The third hitter in the lineup gets less chances with runners on base than the cleanup or fifth hitter.

[ShoelesJoe]

The third hitter in the lineup gets less chances with runners on base than the cleanup or fifth hitter.

As of right now here are the numbers of Oriole ABs with runners on base this season:

Jones -- 169

Machado -- 151

Markakis -- 149

Hardy -- 138

Davis -- 122

Wieters -- 114

People keep defending Showalter's lineup by claiming we're scoring enough runs as it is, but is that really a good argument? If batting Davis 3rd or 4th over the rest of the season would translate into an additional 10 or 20 runs scored shouldn't the team make that move? Right now we're in 2nd place in the ultra tight AL East, 3 games ahead of TB in the Wild Card race, and only 5.5 games ahead of the surging Blue Jays. Are we so rich and confident that we can afford to leave potential runs on the field? Or should we be scrapping for every run we can get? 10 extra runs could boost us ahead of Boston. 10 lost runs could put us in 4th place. Don't know about you guys, but I've spent too much of my life watching other organization laughing at us, and I want every run and every win I can lay my hands on.

[Tx Oriole]

As of right now here are the numbers of Oriole ABs with runners on base this season:

Jones -- 169

Machado -- 151

Markakis -- 149

Hardy -- 138

Davis -- 122

Wieters -- 114

People keep defending Showalter's lineup by claiming we're scoring enough runs as it is, but is that really a good argument? If batting Davis 3rd or 4th over the rest of the season would translate into an additional 10 or 20 runs scored shouldn't the team make that move? Right now we're in 2nd place in the ultra tight AL East, 3 games ahead of TB in the Wild Card race, and only 5.5 games ahead of the surging Blue Jays. Are we so rich and confident that we can afford to leave potential runs on the field? Or should we be scrapping for every run we can get? 10 extra runs could boost us ahead of Boston. 10 lost runs could put us in 4th place. Don't know about you guys, but I've spent too much of my life watching other organization laughing at us, and I want every run and every win I can lay my hands on.

Don't fix what ain't broke. IMO

[DrungoHazewood]

The third hitter in the lineup gets less chances with runners on base than the cleanup or fifth hitter.

Not only that, but why wouldn't you want the guy with the .400+ OBP leading off once in a while?

[ShoelesJoe]

Not only that, but why wouldn't you want the guy with the .400+ OBP leading off once in a while?

The third place hitter does NOT get fewer ABs with runners on than the fifth place hitter. Miguel Cabrera's leads the Tigers in ABs with runners on -- he bats third. Pedroia leads the BoSox in ABs with runners on -- he bats third. And our third place hitter has come up with runners on 27 more times than our fifth hitter. And he's hitting almost 500 points lower in OPS when doing so.

Maybe you guys don't mind giving back runs. I do.

[Ohfan67]

As of right now here are the numbers of Oriole ABs with runners on base this season:

Jones -- 169

Machado -- 151

Markakis -- 149

Hardy -- 138

Davis -- 122

Wieters -- 114

People keep defending Showalter's lineup by claiming we're scoring enough runs as it is, but is that really a good argument? If batting Davis 3rd or 4th over the rest of the season would translate into an additional 10 or 20 runs scored shouldn't the team make that move? Right now we're in 2nd place in the ultra tight AL East, 3 games ahead of TB in the Wild Card race, and only 5.5 games ahead of the surging Blue Jays. Are we so rich and confident that we can afford to leave potential runs on the field? Or should we be scrapping for every run we can get? 10 extra runs could boost us ahead of Boston. 10 lost runs could put us in 4th place. Don't know about you guys, but I've spent too much of my life watching other organization laughing at us, and I want every run and every win I can lay my hands on.

Thanks for digging up the data. Very interesting. You should email this to Showalter. I'm serious.

[Aristotelian]

Don't fix what ain't broke. IMO

I agree with this - in fact I think I said it earlier in this thread. For the most part I don't see how you can mess with arguably the top offense in the league.

The most plausible alternative would be to switch CD and Markakis, keeping L/R alternation but getting more ABs for CD.

Still, among other things, if you move CD up, I think you would negate much of the speed advantage that McLouth brings. Buck is much less likely to give Nate a green light if it risks taking the bat out of CD's hands. Whereas if you have Markakis batting 3rd, you can hit and run, or if you are caught stealing you have AJ and CD coming up in the next inning.

I also think that CD makes a bigger difference protecting AJ than he would protecting Markakis. AJ being a free swinger really needs to see fastballs in the strike zone, and I don't think he gets nearly as many with Markakis behind him.

That said, I wouldn't mind seeing a little variation now and then.

[TXOriole]

Not only that, but why wouldn't you want the guy with the .400+ OBP leading off once in a while?

Batting behind Jones, Davis gets to lead off quite a bit. How many of his HR's this year lead off an inning? 7? 8? Imagine if he had players on in those situations.

I would be all for Davis batting 4th and moving Jones to 5th...but I think we'd benefit from having a reliable bat in the 6 hole before there is complete comfort in making that move.

[ShoelesJoe]

I agree with this - in fact I think I said it earlier in this thread. For the most part I don't see how you can mess with arguably the top offense in the league.

The most plausible alternative would be to switch CD and Markakis, keeping L/R alternation but getting more ABs for CD.

Still, among other things, if you move CD up, I think you would negate much of the speed advantage that McLouth brings. Buck is much less likely to give Nate a green light if it risks taking the bat out of CD's hands. Whereas if you have Markakis batting 3rd, you can hit and run, or if you are caught stealing you have AJ and CD coming up in the next inning.

I also think that CD makes a bigger difference protecting AJ than he would protecting Markakis. AJ being a free swinger really needs to see fastballs in the strike zone, and I don't think he gets nearly as many with Markakis behind him.

That said, I wouldn't mind seeing a little variation now and then.

"Protection" as you describe it here is a myth. Davis is having perhaps the greatest offensive season in the history of the organization, and the guy hitting behind him is putting up a .696 OPS.

I do agree that moving Chris into the three hole could have unintended consequences for some of the other batters. But I have to think that with his extra ABs with runners on we'd gain more than we'd lose. If I was writing the lineup card it would look something like this:

Markakis

Machado

Davis

Jones

McLouth

Hardy

Wieters

DH de jour

Roberts