Jump to content

TOR Trade Option - Jake Peavy

Skipjack33

By Skipjack33
in Orioles Talk

Recommended Posts

LookitsPuck Hangout Grand Counsel

LookitsPuck

Posted
Posted
Last season he was 72% and when he's healthy I think that's what you can look for. I don't see that from Tillman this year. He just isn't consistent enough. I am fine with Tillman as a solid mid rotation guy, I'm just not fine with our SP. If it takes Tillman in trade to improve it then so be it.

You *might* help our rotation in the short term (you know, if he doesn't blow up again since he is Mr. Injury Prone) by a minimal amount. Peavy is a career 115 ERA+ guy. Over his last 3 years, however, he was a 107 ERA+ guy with a 3.95 ERA pitching for the Padres and the White Sox. This year he is a 102 ERA+ guy. Oft injured as well.

Do you give up a young, controllable, and cheap arm like Tillman who is improving for that kind of guy? I'd say...no. It hurts your rotation down the line and even on the short term with the very real possibility that Peavy gets hurt (he most likely is hurt right now).

Peavy is a risk. The only benefit to him is that he's a free agent in 2015, but has a player option for that year that he most likely won't hit due to his injury problems.

I think you need to keep a Tillman type as a MOR (as you say he is) because other guys like Hammel (ineffective), Gausman (young, inexperienced), and Garcia (old) are not definite bets. We know what we get with a Gonzalez and a Chen for the most part. But losing a guy like Tillman for an injury prone Peavy just isn't very smart.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Replies 85
  • Created
  • Last Reply
SteveO Veteran All-Star

SteveO

Posted
Posted
Last season he was 72% and when he's healthy I think that's what you can look for. I don't see that from Tillman this year. He just isn't consistent enough. I am fine with Tillman as a solid mid rotation guy, I'm just not fine with our SP. If it takes Tillman in trade to improve it then so be it.

I really would like to have Peavy but would not trade Tillman to get him.

I actually think if you went with Schoop, one of Arrieta/Britton/Matusz and throw in a decent A ball prospect that might get it done.

Tillman is cheap, controllable and decent #3ish starter with an upside of a #2 type starter which is what Peavy is at this point of his career and moving forward IMO. Tough call but I would keep Tillman.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
SteveO Veteran All-Star

SteveO

Posted
Posted

Good news is that without Peavy the White Sox may fall further back in the standings and be in a dealing mood.

Also Peavy is better than his stat line IMO. Being out the next 6 weeks means he cant go on a tear that would raise his value significantly. If anything this injury increases the probability you could swing a deal that does not include Gausman, Bundy or Tillman

Only downside would be if the injury was something that could linger longer and limit his effectiveness to a team during a playoff drive.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Norfolk orioles Hangout Grand Counsel

Norfolk orioles

Posted
Posted
On this team that's not saying much, and how often is he on? His career QS% is 44%, average is 52%. Peavy is 64%

His career numbers from early on really skew those numbers. What's his QS from just the last season and this season? What's Peavy's from last season and this season?

That's far more relevant than what peavy did in San Diego years and years ago.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Norfolk orioles Hangout Grand Counsel

Norfolk orioles

Posted
Posted
When? Chen returns, if he can get back to form, and if Hammel can straighten himself out, and if Tillman can improve and if Gausman can hold his own and if Gonzo can back to his 2012 consistency, we don't need no stinkin' Cliff Lee. Our SP seems kind of iffy to me.

And IF none of that happens cliff lee won't make a bit of difference nor will he want to waive his no trade clause.

Tillman is literally the last guy I'd trade from the staff right now. Unreal, I thought you'd have a better sense of where he's headed than that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
waroriole Hangout Grand Counsel

waroriole

Posted
Posted
And IF none of that happens cliff lee won't make a bit of difference nor will he want to waive his no trade clause.

Tillman is literally the last guy I'd trade from the staff right now. Unreal, I thought you'd have a better sense of where he's headed than that.

I think it's more along the lines of ElGordo made a stupid comment. Rather than back away from it he digs himself deeper and deeper. It doesn't matter how good your argument is in opposition to him, he will not give an inch. It's better to just laugh at him and move on.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
El Gordo Hangout Grand Counsel

El Gordo

Posted
Posted
I think it's more along the lines of ElGordo made a stupid comment. Rather than back away from it he digs himself deeper and deeper. It doesn't matter how good your argument is in opposition to him, he will not give an inch. It's better to just laugh at him and move on.
Which comment was stupid? The OP suggests trading for Peavy. I suggested offering Tillman for Peavy. A healthy Peavy would be a significant upgrade short term over Tillman. IMO trading a #3-4 SP for a #1-2. We have lots of #3-4 SP types. We have no #1-2 types. There are good reasons not to do it. Injury and Tillman's future upside and low cost. There are reasons to do it. A healthy Peavy is going to win more games this season and give you more QS. He is better suited to take the ball in a playoff game. Remember as good as Tillman was last season Buck didn't have him on the playoff roster. He isn't pitching any better than he did last season. It's a trade off. Your post is stupid.
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Kerry A-Ball

Kerry

Posted
Posted

The word from here in Chicago is that Peavy is being shut down for 4-6 weeks--there's no treatment for a non-displaced rib fracture other than rest, so there will be no baseball (or even athletic--he's not being allowed to ride a stationary bike) for that 4-6 week period. I'm hearing rumbling that the White Sox are preparing for the distinct possibility that Peavy won't be pitching by the time the non-waiver trade deadline comes and goes.

By the time the trade deadline rolls around this year, Peavy will have been with the White Sox for the equivalent of four full seasons (he was acquired from the Padres at the deadline in 2009). In that time, he will have made a grand total of 81 starts. He's spent roughly 40% of the time on the DL over that span.

Peavy works hard and still has a good arm, but he's become a very high-risk proposition at this point in his career. He's only qualified for the ERA title once since 2008, and that's almost certainly not going to change this year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Kerry A-Ball

Kerry

Posted
Posted

Peavy is a risk. The only benefit to him is that he's a free agent in 2015, but has a player option for that year that he most likely won't hit due to his injury problems.

I'd go so far as to say that there's no chance that the 2015 player option will vest. He needs 400 combined IP in 2013 and 2014 for it to happen. Since it would be a minor miracle for him to finish with 150 this year...well, he's not going to pitch 400 innings over this season and next.

That all said...I completely agree that he represents a tremendous risk as an acquisition. He's still owed a lot of money and has been extremely unreliable (health-wise) for the past five years. To get the Sox to pick up most of his contract, significant prospects will have to be surrendered. The alternative is a salary dump, of course, but do you really want to take on the equivalent of more than $20M (what's left of this year and all of next year) in the hopes of drawing an inside straight (i.e. that Peavy somehow stays off the DL over a season and-a-third)?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • Posts

    • FlaO'sFan
      John Sterling retires at 85

      By FlaO'sFan · Posted

      I remember him from his time with the Braves when I was in Atlanta. This is from the 'Rick Camp Game' in 85.  
    • Frobby
      Cole Irvin 2024

      By Frobby · Posted

      I don’t think his lack of command in the early going is going to be fixed by changing roles.  Irvin typically has very good command.  He didn’t at the beginning of last year, but recovered it after a stint in the minors.  This year he’s having early problems again, but I think the reasons may be different.  He’s gained velocity and he’s added a new pitch that moves well but he hadn’t quite figured out how to command.  So, I don’t know if he’ll figure it out or not.  If he does, he could emerge a better pitcher than at any previous time in his career. In any event, he will get at least two more starts before Means is ready to return.   Hopefully he’ll make some progress, but he’s likely to find himself in the bullpen when Means returns regardless.       
    • ShoelesJoe
      Cole Irvin 2024

      By ShoelesJoe · Posted

      Irvin is probably the most frustrating pitcher on this team right now. He has good velocity and good movement, but consistently misses his targets by a foot or two. Monday night the Twins hit a number of missiles that by luck or pluck didn't fall in, but a better team would have probably put up a touchdown against him. I think Irvin would have more success out of the pen, throwing as hard as he can for 20 pitches, rather than as a starter where he has to hold back a little so as to eat innings. Of course that's not going to resolve his problems with lack of command, but at least he'd be in a position to do less damage out of the BP than by starting every fifth day. 
    • OriolesMagic83
      Jordan Westburg 2024

      By OriolesMagic83 · Posted

      As some people have noted on the Holliday thread, a quick release can help make up for less than a rocket arm and he's quick and has good hands.  Seems to work well with Gunnar too.
    • Frobby
      Craig Kimbrel 2024

      By Frobby · Posted

      He’s been murdering a lot of balls.  99th percentile in average exit velocity, 97th in hard hit rate.  He’s been a little unlucky, with a .331 xOBA, .361 xwOBA going into last night.  
    • Roy Firestone
      Cedric Mullins 2024

      By Roy Firestone · Posted

      It's only somewhat relevant to this post, but that game saving catch in Seattle, and the subsequent game winning home run is quite possibly the most impressive thing I ever saw within one inning of  each other.Cedric Mullins did that. I watched Willie Mays for most of my life...I simply dont think he ever did that...certainly not in extra innings and so close those moments were together.
    • Frobby
      Cedric Mullins 2024

      By Frobby · Posted

      Where did you find that info?

  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...