Orioles prospect ratings by Sickels

[Boy Howdy]

Here's the link:

http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2008/1/6/183015/4468

He lists 20 with grades and some comments, but here's the top 5 for those that don't want to click:

Matt Wieters, C, Grade A-

Troy Patton, LHP, Grade B+ (I like him more than I should perhaps)

Radhames Liz, RHP, Grade B (Grade A arm, Grade C command)

Bill Rowell, 3B, Grade B

Nolan Reimold, OF, Grade B-

[OrioleMagic]

Thanks! Interesting information. I wonder where Sickels rated Bedard and Cabrera about 3 years ago. If I had to guess... it wouldn't be too much higher than Patton and Liz, but I don't remember.

[Boy Howdy]

I wonder where Sickels rated Bedard and Cabrera about 3 years ago. If I had to guess... it wouldn't be too much higher than Patton and Liz, but I don't remember.

Good question, and I don't have the answer.

Frobby, however, posted the last three Orioles Sickles lists a few weeks ago:

pre-2005

Nick Markakis, OF, B+

Val Majewski, OF, B+

Jeff Fiorentino, OF, B

Hayden Penn, RHP, B

Chris Ray, RHP, B

John Maine, RHP, B-

Tripper Johnson, 3B, C+

Adam Loewen, LHP, C+

Walter Young, 1B-DH, C+

Jacobo Sequea, RHP, C+

Eli Whiteside, C, C

David Haehnel, LHP, C

James Johnson, RHP, C

Nate Spears, 2B, C

Keith Reed, OF, C

Rob McCrory, RHP, C

Tony Neal, RHP, C

Carlos Perez, LHP, C

Jarod Rine, OF, C

Freddy Deza, RHP, C

pre-2006

Nick Markakis, OF, Grade A-

Brandon Snyder, C, B+

Chris Ray, RHP, B+

Adam Loewen, LHP, B

Val Majewski, OF, B

Nolan Reimold, OF, B

Garrett Olson, LHP, B

J.J. Johnson, RHP, B

Brandon Erbe, RHP, B

Hayden Penn, RHP, B-

Jeff Fiorentino, OF, B-

Chris Britton, RHP, B-

Radhames Liz, RHP, B-

Dave Haehnel, LHP, C+

Kurt Birkins, LHP, C

Brian Finch, RHP, C

Ryan Keefer, RHP, C

Blake Owen, RHP, C

Paco Figueroa, 2B, C

Wilfredo Perez, LHP, C

pre-2007

Bill Rowell, 3B, Grade B+ (looks like a very strong bat)

Brandon Erbe, RHP, Grade B+ (one of my favorites)

Nolan Reimold, OF, B (power should carry forward but batting average?)

Garrett Olson, LHP, B (solid mid-rotation starter type)

Pedro Beato, RHP, B (throws hard, needs time to develop)

Radhames Liz, RHP, B (throws hard, but needs a good dose of Triple-A)

James Hoey, RHP, B- (high octane bullpen arm but was rushed last year)

Jeff Fiorentino, OF, B- (I see him as a really good fourth outfielder, B- might be high)

Brandon Snyder, C, C+ (complete collapse of plate discipline last year is a bigger issue than the shoulder injury)

James Johnson, RHP, C+ (back-end rotation or swingman type)

Jason Berken, RHP, C+ (underrated 2006 draft guy)

Chris Vinyard, 1B, C+ (very impressive power in the New York-Penn League)

Ryan Adams, SS, C+ (Young, promising bat but will need time)

Val Majewski, OF, C (I liked him a lot before he hurt his shoulder)

Kieron Pope, OF, C (great tools but skills are still weak)

Zach Britton, LHP, C (good arm but raw)

Brian Burres, LHP, C (could be useful swingman)

Brett Bordes, LHP, C (lived armed LOOGY could advance quickly)

Brian Finch, RHP, C (I don't like his K/BB ratio)

Blake Davis, SS, C (held own in Sally League jumping from college ball)

[Roll Tide]

Here's the link:

http://www.minorleagueball.com/story/2008/1/6/183015/4468

He lists 20 with grades and some comments, but here's the top 5 for those that don't want to click:

Matt Wieters, C, Grade A-

Troy Patton, LHP, Grade B+ (I like him more than I should perhaps)

Radhames Liz, RHP, Grade B (Grade A arm, Grade C command)

Bill Rowell, 3B, Grade B

Nolan Reimold, OF, Grade B-

Good Stuff Thanks!

[Pruke]

Awesome stuff - thanks for posting.

Couple of thoughts:

1. The fact that Beird would rank at #16, makes me believe he was a good Rule 5 pickup. Let's hope it works out in ST.

2. I like the fact that 9 out of our top 12 prospects are pitchers. And I don't like the fact that 9 out of our top 12 prospects are pitchers. I wish we had more position prospects (as we all do) but am happy that we're getting pitching rich in my opinion, which opens options such as trading for prospects you lack or premium talents in the future.

Go O's

[TakebackOPACY]

Note that he may have made some subtle changes before his book goes to print... or before these 2007 grades went to print.

Sickels 2008 (same link as in the OP)

Sickels 2007

Rowell down from B+ to B

Erbe down from B+ to C+

Reimold down from B to B-

Olson down from B to B-

Beato down from B to B-

Liz holds at B

Hoey holds at B-

Fiorentino down from B- to C

Snyder holds at C+

JJ down from C+ to C

Jason Berken down from C+ to C

Chris Vinyard down from C+ to no rating

Ryan Adams down from C+ to no rating

Val Majewski down from C to no rating

Kieron Pope down from C to no rating

Zach Britton holds at C

Brett Bordes down from C to no rating

Brian Finch down from C to no rating

Blake Davis down from C to no rating

So noone from last year's Top 20 improved their grades.

[Camden_yardbird]

Looks representative of a down year at our lower levels. A lot of our average (B) players droped to B-. But on the plus side it looks like the lower level of that list is rising a 3rd of a grade into the C+ range. What disturbs me is the number of the C+ to B prospects who have just totally dropped off. But I guess that is the nature of the game.

One would think that some solid trades would greatly improve this list. I think 2-4 solid trades of the Orioles XS could drop the number of C+ and C rated prospects in the top 20 down to 2-3. This kind of return would show a lot for the AM and the Organization.

Also, just to spark debate, I would like to know who people put in that 20 spot now that the man who occupied it was released. I am not talking reorganization of the list, just a single name who replaces Fio.

[Lucky Jim]

LOL at Orioole26 posting in David Hernandez's defense on Sickels's site.

Hernandez

Hernandez should rank higher than 19. Should be higher then Bascom. Hernandez's last 2 games of last year is a indication how he can dominate hitters. I believe he will have a breakout year in Bowie.

by orioole26 on Sun Jan 06, 2008 at 06:22:19 PM CDT

[Lucky Jim]

I was going to do this so thanks for saving me the effort.

There is no way to make this look good. Virtually none of our prospects helped themselves last year. I think his ratings are pretty accurate, but I would argue the following:

1) Erbe is better than a C+ due to his age vs league; I would rate him B-

2) Reimold could still be a B, but I can see the B-

3) Olson shouldn't have fallen; he pitched great in the minors last year which is the basis for this rating as I understand it

4) Liz could have risen to a B+, but I'm not surprised that he didn't because of the command issues

Well, there's one way to make it look good: having 11 prospects with a B- or above is actually pretty good. And this is w/out our highest-ceiling prospects even coming close to maxing out.

I think Olson fell because his ceiling doesn't look fantastic and his failure to perform in the Majors is increasingly problematic at his age.

As for Erbe - I don't worry about his score. Either he gets it together and he's a B+/A- next year or there's something substantially wrong with him. C+ is the grade that Sickels generally gives to performance that hints at serious problems like injury issues. Regardless of Erbe's age, his performance last year was pretty horrendous.

[TakebackOPACY]

Since I posted a 'downer' post, here's some good news thanks to new acquisitions through various methods:

2007 = 8 players at B- or higher. (Sickels is a tough grader and B- is strong.)

2008 = 11 players at B- or higher.

Wieters at A- puts him in rare air! Frobby recently posted how tight Sickels is with 'A' grades; hopefully he'll chime in to this thread with an updated version of that post.

EDIT: Okay, I even knew by the time I posted, I'd read some of this same info.

[Boy Howdy]

Here's the OH Top 30 with Sickels grades next to their names for comparison

Wieters = A-

Rowell = B

Spoone = B-

Reimold = B-

Erbe = C+

Liz = B

Snyder = C+

Olson = B-

Beato = B-

Britton = C

Henson = not rated

Arrieta = B-

D. Hernandez = C

Bascom = B-

Moore = C+

Angle = C

Hoey = B-

Bergesen = C+

McCrory = C

Vinyard = not rated

Mahoney = C

Tripp = C

Berken = C

Bordes = not rated

Kolodny = C

Deza = C

L. Hernandez = not rated

Lebron = C

Davis = not rated

Abreu = not rated

[Lucky Jim]

I'm going to categorize his results thus far for comparison sake. At first glance, we look pretty good compared to other systems.

Lets go with a scale that quantifies the grades for an overall number. To be simple, how about

A = 10 point

A- = 7.5 point

B+ = 5.5 point

B = 4 point

B- = 3 point

C+ = 2 point

C = 1 point

This gives extra value to extremely high rated players, but doesn't get too crazy. I'll be back with the results.

Having been a Sickels reader for a long time, I can say that, intuitively, scaling a B+ as closer to a B than an A-, point-wise, seems off. Many many many of his B+ are really as good as his A-. The spread from A to B+ is 4.5 points. But from B to C+ only 3 points.

I'd go:

A = 10

A- = 8.5

B+ = 7

B = 5.5

B- = 4.0

C+ = 2.5

C = 1

[Lucky Jim]

lol, I was writing almost this same post at the same time. It should scare you that we think alike.

Well, there are a lot of folks I'd be a whole lot more concerned about agreeing with.

A lot of our average (B) players droped to B-. But on the plus side it looks like the lower level of that list is rising a 3rd of a grade into the C+ range.

These aren't average. B is a strong grade for Sickels.

[Gurgi]

I'm going to categorize his results thus far for comparison sake. At first glance, we look pretty good compared to other systems.

Lets go with a scale that quantifies the grades for an overall number. To be simple, how about

A = 10 point

A- = 7.5 point

B+ = 5.5 point

B = 4 point

B- = 3 point

C+ = 2 point

C = 1 point

This gives extra value to extremely high rated players, but doesn't get too crazy. I'll be back with the results.

Hurry back with the results!

[tywright]

Tyler Henson isn't in the top 20 and not even in the honorable mention. This list needs some major work as does all of Sickels' lists this season. Did anybody see that he only ranked Adam Jones a B+ and then overrated Jed Lowrie by giving him an A- ?!?!