Adam Jones' slightly improved plate discipline from last year has disappeared.

[isestrex]

Last year in 2012, Adam seemed to finally learn to lay off pitches out of the zone even as pitchers threw less and less over the plate. However, while pitchers haven't adjusted their approach to him this year, Adam has become more... confident?... perfunctory?... remiss?... in his approach and drifted away from the advances he made in 2012.

That Zone% all the way to the left tells us the league's approach to Adam. Progressively in his career, he's seen less pitches inside the strike zone with 2012 and 2013 at career lows. Typically this should institute a higher walk rate and it has in past years. As the Zone% drops, the BB% has steadily climbed... except for this year.

His OBP doesn't look dreadful when compared to the rest of career (though a .321 OBP isn't very impressive compared to the league). But it's the BB% that is staggeringly the lowest of his career at 2.4%

Season	Zone%	BB%	 OBP  O-Swing%	Swing%	Contact%    K%      BABIP2008	52.7 %	4.5 %	.311	36.2 %	53.5 %	 76.9 %	   21.0 %   .3292009	48.5 %	6.9 %	.335	35.2 %	53.6 %	 74.5 %	   17.9 %   .3082010	46.0 %	3.7 %	.325	40.6 %	54.6 %	 75.2 %	   19.2 %   .3282011	44.5 %	4.7 %	.319	44.4 %	56.6 %	 76.8 %	   18.3 %   .3042012	43.2 %	4.9 %	.334	41.3 %	55.0 %	 75.1 %	   18.1 %   .3132013	43.5 %	2.4 %	.321	44.3 %	59.0 %	 75.6 %	   19.3 %   .332

Why the the dreadfully low walk rate when pitchers haven't changed their approach? It's because his O-Swing% (percentage of swings on pitches outside the strike zone) is the third highest in baseball behind only Pablo Sandoval and Alfonso Soriano. And his Swing% (simply the amount of pitches he swings at period) is 2nd only to the Panda. We all knew he was a hacker but the little discipline he seemed to gain in 2012 seems to have evaporated.

As a result of the free swinging, non walking approach, Jones' K% is the highest it's been since his rookie season. However, to put that number in perspective, his K% only ranks 63rd in baseball right next to Joe Mauer, Joey Votto and David Wright so it's not like the result is terribly catastrophic. For the answer as to why he's been so successful, it's probable that his BABIP simply needs to regress a little though it probably won't regress much.

The conclusion after doing this research is that Jones' approach is dreadful and he performs poorly when pitchers execute their plan to stay outside the zone (often away off the plate). However, when they don't execute and leave it over the plate, Jones has a field day and is very talented at punishing mistakes. I'm sure it's something of a comfort having Chris Davis behind him, but that comfort is a myth. The numbers show that pitchers aren't giving him more pitches to hit because they know he's not smart enough to take the walk and get on base for the 2nd best hitter in the league.

My fear after doing this research: I wonder if we're close to seeing a Josh Hamilton like plummet.

[Norfolk orioles]

That was one of the most pathetic at bats I've ever seen a baseball player have.

Runners on second and third, 1 out, 1b open and he swings at 4 pitches out of the strike zone. 1 was a foul off, the others were swings and misses.

Pathetic at bat. I'm surprised anyone throws him a strike, ever.

[isestrex]

That was one of the most pathetic at bats I've ever seen a baseball player have.

Runners on second and third, 1 out, 1b open and he swings at 4 pitches out of the strike zone. 1 was a foul off, the others were swings and misses.

Pathetic at bat. I'm surprised anyone throws him a strike, ever.

This isn't a reaction to one at bat. For those, you can visit one of the game threads. This is about his season to date.

[sfosfan]

Great post!

Pouring salt on the open wound today I see. Couldn't you have waited for a better day to post this?

[Can_of_corn]

Nice bit of research with the added benefit of providing another point of evidence to puncture the illusion that is protection.

[Can_of_corn]

I agree. It seems like he expands his zone even more with men on base.

You have to give Jones some credit, he is a major league hitter. If pitchers go to the extreme he will adjust. The question is how much they have to visit the strike zone.

[Chavez Ravine]

You have to give Jones some credit, he is a major league hitter. If pitchers go to the extreme he will adjust. The question is how much they have to visit the strike zone.

I agree. But it also makes Jones frustrating because you wonder if he cold be elite with just a smidgen more selectivity/ recognition.

[Can_of_corn]

I agree. But it also makes Jones frustrating because you wonder if he cold be elite with just a smidgen more selectivity/ recognition.

I agree. It is sometimes hard for me to remember that improving plate discipline is no where near as easy to do as it seems to the amateur.

[Riggodrill44]

Someone earlier in the season said the same thing and what we learned then was, Jones isn't going to change. Why should he?

He is a Major league player and this "flawed" approach has not only got him there but ,also got him paid. He has no incentive to ever change his approach at the plate.

[tntoriole]

I agree. But it also makes Jones frustrating because you wonder if he cold be elite with just a smidgen more selectivity/ recognition.

As Chris Davis has demonstrated to Adam this year, right in front of his eyes every day. If Chris Davis maintains his strike zone awareness and coverage, then he is elite. If not, then he will revert to being like Adam, namely a good player, but not at the absolute top at their positions.

[Lawlbringer]

When he reaches for those low pitches I cringe.

A little more work and he can go from being a good hitter to a truly great and CLUTCH one.

[El Gordo]

Adam Jones AB have become brilliant self parody.

[El Gordo]

I agree. It seems like he expands his zone even more with men on base.

He dreams of becoming the first MLB player in history to hit a 5 RBI HR.

[ACDC27]

We all know this is who Adam is he is a really good player but not quite at the elite level. That being said he is a team I'm sure plenty of others teams would love tohave.

[El Gordo]

I can take AJ as he is as long as he isn't batting 4th. #3or #6, I'm OK with. His poor AB kill to many potential rallies at #4.