Midseason Top 10?

[LookinUp]

I like Hader, but I think some are over rating him as a prospect. Something like a #3 starter as upside. I also think Hunter Harvey's draft status puts him much higher on the list than people are placing him. Here's my current list.

1. Gausman

2. Bundy

3. Harvey

4. Schoop (4-7 are almost interchangable for me)

5. Delmonico

6. E. Rodriguez (also under rated, IMO. Could end up as high as #3 by end of this season)

7. Urrutia

8. Hader

9. Ohlman (gets helium if he can catch)

10. Marin (position value)

11. Walker (no position value)

12. Hoes

13. Hart

14. Sisco

15. Wright (bullpen help this year, IMO)

[mrpennybags]

Nice write-up. Looks like a fine top 5-7.

[LookinUp]

The farm is barren for the moment, but this draft appears to be solid.

Did you write this post 2 years ago and just remember to hit Post?

I could make the case that Bundy, Gausman, Schoop, Rodriguez and Delmonico could be top 100 guys this year. You could make a case that Harvey, Hader and Ohlman get there next year. There are more good baseball players in our org now than there have been for a long time. We might not have the massive upside of the Wieters, Matusz, Tillman, Arrieta years, but the depth of ML potential is very different than its been in a long time. I just put together 15 names that didn't include Berry and Davies, both of whom could at least look like ML relievers in a couple/few years.

[eb45]

I don't know. Hader is 19, throws low 90's and touches 94, is lefthanded, and has the type of delivery which is tough to pick up. He's already looked great in rookie ball and low A ball. Harvey reportedly sits 89-92 and touched 97 early in the spring. He hasn't done a thing yet. He's a lot about projection and we have no idea how pro hitters handle him. He has more upside than Hader but I'll take the proven guy with the lower upside this time. The O's were reportedly considering Hart with the 22nd pick as well. Would he be ranked top 5 if we had taken him there instead of #37? Instead, no one has him in their top 10 because he wasn't picked at #22. He's the same player and the same talent either way.

I mean, I've got Harvey at 5 and Hader at 6 so I don't think we disagree too much, but Harvey gets some benefit of the doubt for me because so many reputable people have seen him and love him. He's not a top three guy yet, of course, but I've got no problems putting him ahead of some guys who might have proven more but don't have his upside.

re: Hart, he's not some nebulous "supplemental pick," he's Josh Hart. if I would have taken a supplemental pick in exchange for Hoes, it would have been a different player. there are some players taken around 37 who I would rank higher than I did Hart and some who I'd rank lower. you can't just say "he was a supplemental pick, therefore he is top five".

[hoosiers]

I don't know. Hader is 19, throws low 90's and touches 94, is lefthanded, and has the type of delivery which is tough to pick up. He's already looked great in rookie ball and low A ball. Harvey reportedly sits 89-92 and touched 97 early in the spring. He hasn't done a thing yet. He's a lot about projection and we have no idea how pro hitters handle him. He has more upside than Hader but I'll take the proven guy with the lower upside this time. The O's were reportedly considering Hart with the 22nd pick as well. Would he be ranked top 5 if we had taken him there instead of #37? Instead, no one has him in their top 10 because he wasn't picked at #22. He's the same player and the same talent either way.

I really don't know where Hader fits. He has been tremendously effective, but IMO he will need to put on some weight and show he can pitch deeper into games at the upper levels. If he's a League top 3-5 type talent, he could be right there in our system at 3-5 near Schoop and Harvey and DelMonico. We'll see.

Regarding Hart, I guess we'll have to see there as well. I really don't believe our system is deep enough that a first round supplemental is outside our top 10 and there may be a case for our second rounder to be in the top 10 as well. I would have to check and see how long it has been since a second rounder did not the following year's Top 10. My guess is that it's been a while - at least two years. Maybe our system is that much deeper today than it has been in a long, long time. We'll see.

[eb45]

instead of saying you don't believe the system is deep enough that Hart isn't a top ten guy, why not tell us which guys everyone else has in their top ten you'd take Hart over?

also, Branden Kline was #13 last year, so there's your second round pick outside the top ten. the system hasn't exactly regressed in the last six months, either.

[CharmCityHokie]

Hunter Harvey is something like 6'3 and 175 and built like a beanpole as well. He'll need to put on weight and prove he can even do what Hader is already doing.

And Zach Davies is even smaller, 6'0 and 150 pounds and he pitched 114.1 innings last year in his first pro season and has already put up 86.1 very effective innings this season. It's not all about size, some guys can manage with the body they've been dealt with. Tim Lincecum is 5'11 and 170, Mike Leake is 5'10. I'm not saying that these guys arent necessarily exceptions to the rule, but being so young, guys like Hader and Davies, I'm not instantly going to knock their prospect status because they cant put weight on fast enough. (This impassioned defense comes with the disclaimer that Hader has become my favorite guy to follow in our minor league system).

Edit: That was in response to hoosiers comment about weight gain, not RZNJ's

[hoosiers]

instead of saying you don't believe the system is deep enough that Hart isn't a top ten guy, why not tell us which guys everyone else has in their top ten you'd take Hart over?

I already did.

[Jammer7]

Knocking Davies' velo (89-91) and then saying you have Bennett Parry (86-88) ahead of him makes absolutely no sense. Wilson also doesn't throw appreciably harder than Davies and, even as a pitchability guy, his secondaries aren't as good. Jones throws harder but his build is just as slight as Davies (he's two inches and twenty pounds heavier) and has nowhere near Zach's command. Arguments can be made for the other pitchers you list but Davies has a real swing and miss pitch which I haven't seen Kline throw (haven't seen him this year though), Bridwell hasn't gotten close to Davies' results, and Hobgood is coming back from serious injury. I wouldn't put any of them above Davies. I am a big Mike Wright fan, but Davies should be in that next group after Bundy/Gausman, along with Wright, Hader, EdRod, and Hunter Harvey.

For reference, here's the rough guess at a top 20 I made after the draft, assuming Gausman graduates:

1. DBundy

2. Schoop

3. Delmonico

4. EdRod

5. Harvey

6. Hader

7. Urrutia

8. Walker

9. Wright

10. Hoes

11. Hart

12. Marin

13. Davies

14. Ohlman

15. Sisco

16. Berry

17. Kline

18. Tarpley

19. Seabrooke

20. Wilson

If I were to update it today, I think I'd move Ohlman and Urrutia up, and probably Walker down. It's amazing how much less top-heavy this system is right now compared to even this offseason. Sure, there's not really a ton of premium talent right now, but there's a bunch of guys who are developing into good players. I think we're starting to see the effects of the new development program at work with guys like Ohlman and Davies, guys who always had a lot of potential but who are now converting it into results.

That is good stuff. I disagree as to Davies' long-term potential, and it is largely based on his size. As I said, if he continues to do well with what he has to offer, then I will be more of a believer in time. Not many guys with his profile have been successful at the ML level. I think projection of a guy in A-ball is certainly a factor in any ranking of players in a minor league system. Davies has no projection at all. It is what it is. Time will tell if your faith in him is justified. The other guys to me have more of a chance of being more valuable to our ML club in my lowly uninformed opinion.

Obviously you have had an opportunity to see these guys much more than me. I only get to see some of them in the spring. Thanks very much for the info. I hope all of these guys do well. I do believe in what the organization is doing these days in drafting and player development. A significant difference from years past.

Also, the OP said he was not considering the 2013 draftees at this point.

[Jammer7]

Did you write this post 2 years ago and just remember to hit Post?

I could make the case that Bundy, Gausman, Schoop, Rodriguez and Delmonico could be top 100 guys this year. You could make a case that Harvey, Hader and Ohlman get there next year. There are more good baseball players in our org now than there have been for a long time. We might not have the massive upside of the Wieters, Matusz, Tillman, Arrieta years, but the depth of ML potential is very different than its been in a long time. I just put together 15 names that didn't include Berry and Davies, both of whom could at least look like ML relievers in a couple/few years.

That comment, "barren for the moment," was based on what talent can make an impact this year at the ML level, or what we may have for trade possibilities. Besides Gausman and maybe Urrutia, which other prospects have a chance for impact of any kind? As I understand it, Schoop is hurt and will be out for a while, so he is out.

I am excited about what is ahead for the system. I love what they are doing when I see guys like Delmonico, Hader, Ohlman, Ed Rodriguez, etc... actually progressing and moving up with success. I should have been more clear.

As a side note, I have been away from the board for a while, months now. Been busy coaching my son's travel team and we just got back from Perfect Game in Ft. Myers. Awesome to see 13 year old kids running sub 7 second (6.7 was the top time) 60's, hitting 85-87 mph from the mound and hitting balls 400 plus feet, no not with BBCOR. The youth game sure has changed in 30 years. lol

[eb45]

That is good stuff. I disagree as to Davies' long-term potential, and it is largely based on his size. As I said, if he continues to do well with what he has to offer, then I will be more of a believer in time. Not many guys with his profile have been successful at the ML level. I think projection of a guy in A-ball is certainly a factor in any ranking of players in a minor league system. Davies has no projection at all. It is what it is. Time will tell if your faith in him is justified. The other guys to me have more of a chance of being more valuable to our ML club in my lowly uninformed opinion.

Obviously you have had an opportunity to see these guys much more than me. I only get to see some of them in the spring. Thanks very much for the info. I hope all of these guys do well. I do believe in what the organization is doing these days in drafting and player development. A significant difference from years past.

Also, the OP said he was not considering the 2013 draftees at this point.

I mean, to discount him based on his size is one thing. Everyone is doing that. If he were 6'3 220 and putting up the numbers he is, he'd be up in the top 5 with EdRod instead of in the 10-15 range. But to put him behind guys like Hobgood, Wilson and Jones who are long shots without Davies' combination of success and age and especially Parry, who is effectively a non-prospect right now, doesn't make a ton of sense.

Look at it this way: the only pitcher with at least ten starts in High-A who is younger than Davies is EdRod. Not just among Orioles minor leaguers, among all minor leaguers. And he's done more than hold his own. Some concern over his frame is warranted, but at this point, what he actually does on the field and what people who have seen a good deal of him think is more important than how big he is.

[luismatos4prez]

Gausman

Bundy

Schoop

Rodriguez

Delmonico

Harvey

Urrutia

Hoes

Hader

Hart

Walker, Ohlman, and Wright would be next.

[Jammer7]

I mean, to discount him based on his size is one thing. Everyone is doing that. If he were 6'3 220 and putting up the numbers he is, he'd be up in the top 5 with EdRod instead of in the 10-15 range. But to put him behind guys like Hobgood, Wilson and Jones who are long shots without Davies' combination of success and age and especially Parry, who is effectively a non-prospect right now, doesn't make a ton of sense.

Look at it this way: the only pitcher with at least ten starts in High-A who is younger than Davies is EdRod. Not just among Orioles minor leaguers, among all minor leaguers. And he's done more than hold his own. Some concern over his frame is warranted, but at this point, what he actually does on the field and what people who have seen a good deal of him think is more important than how big he is.

I understand every point you make. He seems similar to Josh Towers from a few years ago. Small framed kid who was very good until he hit the ML level. He made some splash for one start, I believe, and then got lit up. He later went to Toronto, and got lit up. Done.

What they do in A-ball is encouraging and all, I just think of a ranking as to what their longer-term potential is to help the ML organization. Numbers in A-ball don't mean much to me really. I want to see that their stuff can get ML hitters out some day, and that he will be able to stay healthy enough to make some impact over time.

He won't need to be 6-03 220, but 6-00 185 would be nice instead of 6-00 150. At that weight, will he have the stamina to be a starter long term? Or is his future in the pen? I have read the Mike Leake comps, but seems to me a different athlete...much skinnier. Leake is listed at 5-10 185.

As I said, I root for the kid. I hope you are right. I would be happy to be wrong on this one. For now, for ME, I would not have him in our top 25.

I had not heard of Parry's loss of velocity. He's big and LH, and I thought he was more like 90-92. Is there an injury there?

As for Hobgood, I think his results have been decent thus far after surgery. The velocity is coming back nicely. Next year will be a truer test of where he will be in the long term. He is still just 22, 23 next month, so there is still time.

[waroriole]

1. Gausman

2. Bundy

3. Schoop

4. EdRod

5. Urrutia

6. Delmonico

7. Hader

8. Harvey

9. Ohlman

10. Hoes

[blazer]

1. Bundy

2. Gausman

3. Delmonico

4. Rodriguez

5. Hader

6. Schoop- A little lower than others, but just because I think Delmonico, Rodriguez and Hader have moved up...

7. Harvey

8. Ohlman

9. Hart

10. Urrutia- A little lower too, but if he puts up close the his AA numbers in AAA and does not graduate this year, will move up...

Hoes, Davies, Walker, Sisco, Marin would be the next 5 for me...