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Could Chen graduate from "good pitcher" to "ace?"


Frobby

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Wow, that's reaching pretty deep to make a point.

Not really. His hr/fb% last year was 11.7%, this year it's 3.9%. xFIP of 4.72 this year to 4.34 last year. His strikeout rate has also dropped to 5.13 compared to 7.19 last year, and before tonight his swinging strike rate was a very poor 6.0% compared to last year's 9.1%.

Unless he starts striking out a bunch more guys or has some special magic that is going to keep the ball in the park at roughly 1/3 the rate that he did last year, he's due for serious regression and this is definitely not a sustainable pace.

I think it is a fair statement to say that his peripherals do not indicate that he has made any strides toward becoming an "ace" thus far on the season. Now, if he can get his strikeout rate back above 7+ and keep a lower HR rate around 8-9%, we're talking about a potential number 2.

I am concerned about the number of fly balls Chen gives up pitching at OPACY but he should be a solid pitcher for us and I am very glad to have him back. But I'd be very hesitant to hang an "ace" label on him no matter how shiny that 2.82 ERA looks right now.

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Not really. His hr/fb% last year was 11.7%, this year it's 3.9%. xFIP of 4.72 this year to 4.34 last year. His strikeout rate has also dropped to 5.13 compared to 7.19 last year, and before tonight his swinging strike rate was a very poor 6.0% compared to last year's 9.1%.

Unless he starts striking out a bunch more guys or has some special magic that is going to keep the ball in the park at roughly 1/3 the rate that he did last year, he's due for serious regression and this is definitely not a sustainable pace.

I think it is a fair statement to say that his peripherals do not indicate that he has made any strides toward becoming an "ace" thus far on the season. Now, if he can get his strikeout rate back above 7+ and keep a lower HR rate around 8-9%, we're talking about a potential number 2.

I am concerned about the number of fly balls Chen gives up pitching at OPACY but he should be a solid pitcher for us and I am very glad to have him back. But I'd be very hesitant to hang an "ace" label on him no matter how shiny that 2.82 ERA looks right now.

This is a logical, well reasoned and well expressed argument. I choose to ignore it, and just go off what I feel I've observed this season. That's probably stupid of me, but I can't help myself .

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If he can limit the home runs allowed, then yes. Two great examples so far this season of pitchers taking the next step (largely due to greatly decreasing the amount of HRs allowed) are Travis Wood and Derek Holland. So far Chen has been much better than last year in that department. His WHIP was very good last year, but his ERA was so high because of the HRs allowed.

Hos homeruns allowed was my issue with him, but this year that has been a major improvement it seems.I honestly beleive chen coming back is the boost we needed, similar to kakis coming back or machado being called up last year.

Now if only we could get urrieta up here

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Not really. His hr/fb% last year was 11.7%, this year it's 3.9%. xFIP of 4.72 this year to 4.34 last year. His strikeout rate has also dropped to 5.13 compared to 7.19 last year, and before tonight his swinging strike rate was a very poor 6.0% compared to last year's 9.1%.

Unless he starts striking out a bunch more guys or has some special magic that is going to keep the ball in the park at roughly 1/3 the rate that he did last year, he's due for serious regression and this is definitely not a sustainable pace.

I think it is a fair statement to say that his peripherals do not indicate that he has made any strides toward becoming an "ace" thus far on the season. Now, if he can get his strikeout rate back above 7+ and keep a lower HR rate around 8-9%, we're talking about a potential number 2.

I am concerned about the number of fly balls Chen gives up pitching at OPACY but he should be a solid pitcher for us and I am very glad to have him back. But I'd be very hesitant to hang an "ace" label on him no matter how shiny that 2.82 ERA looks right now.

Agreed. For Chen to become an ace with a consistent ERA under 3.00 he'd basically have to bump his strikeout rate up considerably. Like 30%-50%. Otherwise he's farming out too much to the defense, and that's reflected in his FIP/xFIP/SIERA.

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Yeah, but his curveball isn't a plus pitch and his changeup, which was really good the first half of last year, is inconsistent. His fastball command is probably the best on the team, but his secondaries aren't consistently strong enough to be an ace, IMO.

I don't disagree... I'm just pointing out that fastball command will get you a long way, even with average secondaries.

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Not sure if he will become an ace, but I'd settle for a 2. He tired a bit at the end of last season though I though in various starts he looked very effective and seemed to be picking up a little velocity (up to 92 or so IIRC).

He has the stuff and velo to be a very effective major league pitcher.

Better to have three #2s in your rotation, then a TOR and three #5s guys. :)

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Not really.

2.82 ERA

3.53 FIP

4.78 xFIP

I certainly like having him back but he's still a guy I expect most nights for 6 IP and 2 ER and occasionally he'll elevate the ball and just get absolutely rocked.

All pitchers get rocked once in a while, look at what the Nationals did against Lee last night, 4 bombs.

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I don't disagree... I'm just pointing out that fastball command will get you a long way, even with average secondaries.

I agree. It wasn't until about last year when I started focusing on fastball command that I realized how rare solid command is. It's usually on the TOR guys that can locate to both sides of the corners consistently.

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