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Did I Hear Mike Bordick Correct??


ExileAngelos

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Be that as it may, his entire list of awards on his baseball reference page is one gold glove and a 6th place finish for RoY.

At no point so far in his career has he been viewed as close to a dominant force.

Agree, but he is a solid productive outfielder in both defense and offense, and in multiple fantasy leagues is owned at the 99% level.

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Be that as it may, his entire list of awards on his baseball reference page is one gold glove and a 6th place finish for RoY.

At no point so far in his career has he been viewed as close to a dominant force.

I agree with your assessment. To elaborate further, I think saying Markakis isn't a future HOF'er doesn't mean he's a bad player or lacks value...clearly he's a productive, reliable, every day player.

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Not a Markakis hater. I like him, but I'm going to try and be a little objective here. How is a corner outfielder who plays sub par defense with not much and eroding power, is statistically declining and his only real attribute is contact and playing every day even close to a HOF player? Markakis this season right now is -5 runs above average meaning he's a below average MLB player.

He's a poor man's version of Tony Gwynn who hit .338 for a career, kept it up for years and still didn't even amass a career WAR over 70 and really when you look at it, arguably is not HOF worthy.

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Not a Markakis hater. I like him, but I'm going to try and be a little objective here. How is a corner outfielder who plays sub par defense with not much and eroding power, is statistically declining and his only real attribute is contact and playing every day even close to a HOF player? Markakis this season right now is -5 runs above average meaning he's a below average MLB player.

He's a poor man's version of Tony Gwynn who hit .338 for a career, kept it up for years and still didn't even amass a career WAR over 70 and really when you look at it, arguably is not HOF worthy.

If Markakis puts himself at 3,000 hits then he's seriously in the discussion for the HOF. hard to argue the guy isn't durable. Is that fair..no, but that's the way it is. Are the odds of that good right now...no, they look slim, but before his injury last year he was on a reasonable pace where it seemed possible over an extended career. Maybe he ends up at first base like Nick Swisher and hits .300 for many years to come. Is he declining prematurely? .....maybe. There are certainly signs of that. Might some of that be to injury and is he capable of re-surging? I wouldn't rule it out. Is he a below average fielder in RF? Yes, I believe that, but the fact is a lot of people don't and a lot of HOF voters don't give crap about defensive metrics and if he does miraculously reach 3,000 hits it really wont matter.

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Nick is a steady, good ballplayer, but not the type that I think of as an MLB Hall-of-Famer. But his banjo-hitting skills are quite good, and it's not crazy to think that he could hang around long enough playing at his current level to come close to 3000 hits. And I still think that 3000 hits will eventually get a player in, even though it probably shouldn't.

We'll find out if 3000 hits is still a Golden Ticket to Cooperstown (PED charges notwithstanding); Craig Biggio finished with 3060 hits and didn't make the Hall in his first year of eligibility...which is interesting, because NO ONE got in following the most recent vote. Biggio did receive more than 68% of the votes, so he'll probably get in eventually, but it's pretty clear that the rubber stamp days for 3000-hit players are waning, if not completely gone.

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Its pretty funny that this is the topic of conversation right now.

I was listening to Bordick when he said this, and just the week before I had said the same thing to the people at my house watching the game.

Here's how it could happen. Markakis averages 185 hits in a season for his career. He is only 29 and already has over 1300 hits. If he just does his average for the next 10 years, then he will end up with 3154 hits. That would put him tied with George Brett and only 30 from Ripken. He would be ahead of guys like Gwynn, Boggs, and Kaline.

If he also hit his average of 18 HRs, then he would have over 300 HRs and 3000 hits. If for some way he could raise his career average to .300+, then he would be one of 5 in history to have 300hrs, 3000hits, and .300 BA. (Aaron, Mays, Musial, and Brett)

I think he can do it, and I think it will end up without any All-Star Selections

There is no person that is more consistent than Markakis

I even found a link to an article about Markakis and 3000 hits:

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/6/22/2230874/nick-markakis-3000-hit-club-member

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I don't think there's any real shot for Markakis to be elected to the Hall of Fame. There are two basic ways in--extremely high peak value or impressive, longstanding career value. Markakis has literally no chance by the former criteria.

On the career value side...I wish I could dig up my version of the favorite toy, just to project Markakis' shot at 3000 hits, but it's clearly less than 50-50, because he's going to need more than 1600 before the start of his age-30 season. He's averaging 185 hits per 162 games played, and at that rate he'd need to go another nine years to reach 3000...that assumes the same rate of accumulating hits and being able to play every single game, every single season. The odds of this happening are tiny, so a practical best case scenario is probably 11 more seasons.

A more likely scenario is that, if he avoids major injury going forward, he'll finish somewhere between 2500 and 2800 hits.

Markakis is a solid major league ballplayer who has already had a nice career, but it hasn't been Hall of Fame caliber, or even all that close, IMO. Someone earlier compared him to Dwight Evans. I think Markakis (who has a career OPS+ of 116 to date--it will almost certainly be at least modestly lower than that by the time he's done) is a solid cut below Evans (career OPS+ 127).

Lou Whitaker (OPS+ 117 at a far more difficult defensive position) was eliminated from the HOF ballot after one year (which is a travesty, but that's another rant). If I had to guess, the same will happen to Markakis one day.

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He will make the Oriole Hall of Fame for sure.

As for defensive liability, really?

His putouts are down, the runners have learned to not run on his arm.

Advanced defensive metrics show both him and Jones to be below average at home. There is a school of thought that the park effects at OPACY is skewing the findings.

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If Markakis puts himself at 3,000 hits then he's seriously in the discussion for the HOF. hard to argue the guy isn't durable. Is that fair..no, but that's the way it is. Are the odds of that good right now...no, they look slim, but before his injury last year he was on a reasonable pace where it seemed possible over an extended career. Maybe he ends up at first base like Nick Swisher and hits .300 for many years to come. Is he declining prematurely? .....maybe. There are certainly signs of that. Might some of that be to injury and is he capable of re-surging? I wouldn't rule it out. Is he a below average fielder in RF? Yes, I believe that, but the fact is a lot of people don't and a lot of HOF voters don't give crap about defensive metrics and if he does miraculously reach 3,000 hits it really wont matter.

That may be true now, but it is gradually starting to matter. Just look at Buster Olney. He's a mainstream baseball guy who has influence in baseball and is not a stat head. Even He is aware of defensive metrics. In 15-20 years when Markakis is on the ballot potentially more and more of the old guard will be gone. The newer voters will be more inclined to appreciate defense and positional value.

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Advanced defensive metrics show both him and Jones to be below average at home. There is a school of thought that the park effects at OPACY is skewing the findings.

You play with enough numbers and stats long enough, you can manipulate it to show whatever side you are on.

This was said by my old High School Math teacher, way too many years ago, but it still holds true.

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Here's my issue with the HOF. I hate stat qualifiers being the basis for whether or not someone should get in. Just because someone has 3,000 hits doesn't automatically make them a HOF. You have to look at other criteria (i.e. awards, comparison to players at his position).

The bottomline is that if there is any doubt as to whether or not someone is a HOF, than they are not worthy of being in the HOF. It is the HOF, not the Hall of Very Good.

Mariano Rivera- no brainer

Craig Biggio (over 3,000 hits)- not a HOF

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