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Did I Hear Mike Bordick Correct??


ExileAngelos

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You play with enough numbers and stats long enough, you can manipulate it to show whatever side you are on.

This was said by my old High School Math teacher, way too many years ago, but it still holds true.

It does seem counter-intuitive that their numbers tend to be better on the road then at home.

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We'll find out if 3000 hits is still a Golden Ticket to Cooperstown (PED charges notwithstanding); Craig Biggio finished with 3060 hits and didn't make the Hall in his first year of eligibility...which is interesting, because NO ONE got in following the most recent vote. Biggio did receive more than 68% of the votes, so he'll probably get in eventually, but it's pretty clear that the rubber stamp days for 3000-hit players are waning, if not completely gone.

I think this overstates the case somewhat. Biggio is definitely getting in.

500 home runs is considered as much of a certainty for inclusion as 3,000 hits and yet Eddie Mathews and Harmon Killebrew had 500 home runs and didn't make it until their 5th and 4th ballots respectively.

While it is possible that 3,000 hits may not get one into the HOF eventually, Biggio is not the test case for that. Damon would have been and Markakis certainly would be.

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That may be true now, but it is gradually starting to matter. Just look at Buster Olney. He's a mainstream baseball guy who has influence in baseball and is not a stat head. Even He is aware of defensive metrics. In 15-20 years when Markakis is on the ballot potentially more and more of the old guard will be gone. The newer voters will be more inclined to appreciate defense and positional value.

Yeah, you are probably right and I hope you are. Why are you a red pip?

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Here's my issue with the HOF. I hate stat qualifiers being the basis for whether or not someone should get in. Just because someone has 3,000 hits doesn't automatically make them a HOF. You have to look at other criteria (i.e. awards, comparison to players at his position).

The bottomline is that if there is any doubt as to whether or not someone is a HOF, than they are not worthy of being in the HOF. It is the HOF, not the Hall of Very Good.

Mariano Rivera- no brainer

Craig Biggio (over 3,000 hits)- not a HOF

Craig Biggio is definitely a Hall of Famer based on the standard of players already in the Hall of Fame. There is an argument to be made that despite the 3,000 hits, Biggio is not a first ballot guy (as some people feel the need to differentiate that), but he certainly belongs in the Hall of Fame.

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I think this overstates the case somewhat. Biggio is definitely getting in.

I'm inclined to agree that Biggio is probably going to be a member eventually, but I don't think it's a stone cold lock. Last year was the perfect opportunity for him to maximize votes. It was a weak ballot...and he didn't get there. I think there's a distinct possibility that his vote share actually drops over the next couple of years of eligibility, given the competition.

The last player with 3000 hits not tied to PEDs or banned from baseball to fail to be elected on the first ballot was Paul Waner...until Craig Biggio...in a year where no one was elected. Something's different. Again, I do believe that Biggio will eventually be enshrined, but I don't think it's guaranteed.

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Craig Biggio is definitely a Hall of Famer based on the standard of players already in the Hall of Fame. There is an argument to be made that despite the 3,000 hits, Biggio is not a first ballot guy (as some people feel the need to differentiate that), but he certainly belongs in the Hall of Fame.

Let me ask you a (non-loaded) question. Is the reason that Biggio is "definitely a Hall of Famer" a function of the 3000 hit plateau? In other words, are 3000 hits a necessary criterion for him to meet, given the rest of his career? Or, put yet another way, if everything else is the same about Biggio's career except his hit total, which we'll hypothetically set at 2850 hits, is Biggio "definitely a Hall of Famer" in your mind?

Again, the question isn't a loaded one. I'd be extremely interested to read your thoughts.

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Let me ask you a (non-loaded) question. Is the reason that Biggio is "definitely a Hall of Famer" a function of the 3000 hit plateau? In other words, are 3000 hits a necessary criterion for him to meet, given the rest of his career? Or, put yet another way, if everything else is the same about Biggio's career except his hit total, which we'll hypothetically set at 2850 hits, is Biggio "definitely a Hall of Famer" in your mind?

Again, the question isn't a loaded one. I'd be extremely interested to read your thoughts.

Speaking for myself he would be in either way. He put up those numbers while playing significant amounts of time at Catcher, Second and Centerfield.

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I don't think there's any real shot for Markakis to be elected to the Hall of Fame. There are two basic ways in--extremely high peak value or impressive, longstanding career value.

He could go in by the very popular method of leveraging a bizarre, inscrutable, and Byzantine multi-headed selection process that randomly picks pretty good players out of obscurity (and sometimes even many decades of death) and places them on pedestals above players with twice the career.

If Vic Willis can go into the Hall in 1995, Nick Markakis could get the same treatment in 2110.

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I'm inclined to agree that Biggio is probably going to be a member eventually, but I don't think it's a stone cold lock. Last year was the perfect opportunity for him to maximize votes. It was a weak ballot...and he didn't get there. I think there's a distinct possibility that his vote share actually drops over the next couple of years of eligibility, given the competition.

The last player with 3000 hits not tied to PEDs or banned from baseball to fail to be elected on the first ballot was Paul Waner...until Craig Biggio...in a year where no one was elected. Something's different. Again, I do believe that Biggio will eventually be enshrined, but I don't think it's guaranteed.

In my mind (and I'm probably in the minority) I think Biggio's HOF case was hurt by him getting 3000 hits, since it appeared he stuck around as a well-below-average (heck, well below replacement) player just to get to the milestone. But his HOF case was cemented years before when he was one of the better players in baseball for 8-9 years. He was a 2B with a 10-year run where his OBP was .390, mostly in the Astrodome.

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In my mind (and I'm probably in the minority) I think Biggio's HOF case was hurt by him getting 3000 hits, since it appeared he stuck around as a well-below-average (heck, well below replacement) player just to get to the milestone. But his HOF case was cemented years before when he was one of the better players in baseball for 8-9 years. He was a 2B with a 10-year run where his OBP was .390, mostly in the Astrodome.

You're making the sabermetric case why he should get in...and I don't disagree with you. But in a world where Lou Whitaker--also a second baseman, not incidentally--didn't receive 5% of the votes in his first year of eligibility, Craig Biggio wouldn't receive a sniff without 3000 hits.

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You're making the sabermetric case why he should get in...and I don't disagree with you. But in a world where Lou Whitaker--also a second baseman, not incidentally--didn't receive 5% of the votes in his first year of eligibility, Craig Biggio wouldn't receive a sniff without 3000 hits.

I think we have long drifted past the original content of the posted thread.

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I'm inclined to agree that Biggio is probably going to be a member eventually, but I don't think it's a stone cold lock. Last year was the perfect opportunity for him to maximize votes. It was a weak ballot...and he didn't get there. I think there's a distinct possibility that his vote share actually drops over the next couple of years of eligibility, given the competition.

In a world where "first ballot Hall of Famer" is a distinction to many within the electorate, last year could not have been a perfect opportunity for him to maximize votes.

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I don't think there's any real shot for Markakis to be elected to the Hall of Fame. There are two basic ways in--extremely high peak value or impressive, longstanding career value. Markakis has literally no chance by the former criteria.

On the career value side...I wish I could dig up my version of the favorite toy, just to project Markakis' shot at 3000 hits, but it's clearly less than 50-50, because he's going to need more than 1600 before the start of his age-30 season. He's averaging 185 hits per 162 games played, and at that rate he'd need to go another nine years to reach 3000...that assumes the same rate of accumulating hits and being able to play every single game, every single season. The odds of this happening are tiny, so a practical best case scenario is probably 11 more seasons.

A more likely scenario is that, if he avoids major injury going forward, he'll finish somewhere between 2500 and 2800 hits.

Markakis is a solid major league ballplayer who has already had a nice career, but it hasn't been Hall of Fame caliber, or even all that close, IMO. Someone earlier compared him to Dwight Evans. I think Markakis (who has a career OPS+ of 116 to date--it will almost certainly be at least modestly lower than that by the time he's done) is a solid cut below Evans (career OPS+ 127).

Lou Whitaker (OPS+ 117 at a far more difficult defensive position) was eliminated from the HOF ballot after one year (which is a travesty, but that's another rant). If I had to guess, the same will happen to Markakis one day.

I agree with every single thing you wrote here. However, it's worth mentioning that there are a few players who reached 3,000 by a narrow margin and had more than 1600 hits after age 30. Lou Brock and Wade Boggs both fit in that category (less than 3100 hits, more than 1800 after age 30). So, it's not probable that Markakis gets to 3,000, but it wouldn't be unprecedented.

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Nick has a chance but really needs to have a couple of marque seasons and be productive for a long time. He has a chance at 3000 hits, 1500 runs, a little shy of 1500 RBIs, 300 HRs, 600 2bs and the highest Fielding % of any RF in the history of baseball. I think he is one of those guys that at the end of his career you will look at his numbers and say when did he do all of that. With all that being said he has not had those great seasons yet and feel he will fall short in the end but not terribly far short.

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