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Did I Hear Mike Bordick Correct??


ExileAngelos

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Nick has a chance but really needs to have a couple of marque seasons and be productive for a long time. He has a chance at 3000 hits, 1500 runs, a little shy of 1500 RBIs, 300 HRs, 600 2bs and the highest Fielding % of any RF in the history of baseball. I think he is one of those guys that at the end of his career you will look at his numbers and say when did he do all of that. With all that being said he has not had those great seasons yet and feel he will fall short in the end but not terribly far short.

I can't figure out why runs matter much as that would require someone else driving you in most of the time. I do not think Nick gets 300 homeruns, but I do think that his injuries seem to be tied to things like obliques and hand injuries instead of shoulder or knee injuries. Nick has an outside chance at 3000 hits and if he gets there then he should get in IMO because hitting and fielding a baseball are the basis of the game. Nick does both pretty well.

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You're making the sabermetric case why he should get in...and I don't disagree with you. But in a world where Lou Whitaker--also a second baseman, not incidentally--didn't receive 5% of the votes in his first year of eligibility, Craig Biggio wouldn't receive a sniff without 3000 hits.

He got 68% on his first ballot. This was a stat that went around a lot last announcement -- no player's ever reached 50% without eventually getting in. Someone can correct me on that but I'm pretty sure it's accurate. Biggio has 15 years to get the last 7%. Barring scandal, he's a guarantee.

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In a world where "first ballot Hall of Famer" is a distinction to many within the electorate, last year could not have been a perfect opportunity for him to maximize votes.

I think Biggio was on something. He was a little guy who got pretty big and I still feel that Bagwell was on it as well. That is my opinion without proof, but I would venture to guess a bunch of Orioles who were using as well.

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He got 68% on his first ballot. This was a stat that went around a lot last announcement -- no player's ever reached 50% without eventually getting in. Someone can correct me on that but I'm pretty sure it's accurate. Biggio has 15 years to get the last 7%. Barring scandal, he's a guarantee.

I do think he will get in but...

Folks are underestimating the impact of the backlog being created. Otherwise worthy nominees with steroid taint will be hanging out on the ballot for years with one camp refusing to vote for them while the other camp will vote for them over supposedly clean but less impressive players.

I'm a small hall guy but there were a good 8 players that didn't get last year that I think are worthy.

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I do think he will get in but...

Folks are underestimating the impact of the backlog being created. Otherwise worthy nominees with steroid taint will be hanging out on the ballot for years with one camp refusing to vote for them while the other camp will vote for them over supposedly clean but less impressive players.

I'm a small hall guy but there were a good 8 players that didn't get last year that I think are worthy.

Why are they more likely to "clog" the ballot than Biggio though? Biggio's never had any steroid heat, so plenty of old school writers would rather see him make it than Bonds and co. And new school writers like him more than the old guys anyway. I think the "packed ballot" thing is exaggerated honestly. Very few writers are going to have a big shortage of room on theirs and a lot of the big guys in coming years (Griffey, Thomas, the non-Clemens pitchers) will get voted in fairly quickly. A 3,000-hit guy isn't going to fall through the cracks like Trammell, Walker, Martinez etc will.

Honestly I think the only thing keeping him from the Hall last year was writers thinking he didn't deserve it first-ballot.

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I have heard some steroid talk with Biggio.

The first ballot guys will get in and the near first ballot guys (Biggio or Larkin) will get in. Folks like Mussina and Schilling could end up on the short end of the stick. (not that I am sure Mussina belongs in)

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I agree with every single thing you wrote here. However, it's worth mentioning that there are a few players who reached 3,000 by a narrow margin and had more than 1600 hits after age 30. Lou Brock and Wade Boggs both fit in that category (less than 3100 hits, more than 1800 after age 30). So, it's not probable that Markakis gets to 3,000, but it wouldn't be unprecedented.

Both Brock and Boggs had some unusual circumstances behind their surges. Boggs came up very late (Nick had over a two year head start), and Brock had the advantage of being a durable but relatively low-walk leadoff hitter who spent his 30s getting 650 ABs/700+ PAs a season. Brock got almost 1700 hits in his 30s despite hitting under .300.

And I know you disagree, but Brock has one of the lower WAR totals among HOF outfielders, VC committee selections included. If he was active today he might not make the Hall.

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Folks like Mussina and Schilling could end up on the short end of the stick. (not that I am sure Mussina belongs in)

Mussina's WAR total puts him in the top 20 all time. There are roughly 55-60 pitchers in the Hall for their MLB pitching accomplishments. You'd have to be a real small Hall guy to exclude someone on par with Fergie Jenkins, Nolan Ryan, Steve Carlton, and Robin Roberts. If you add together Whitey Ford and Catfish Hunter you just barely leapfrog Mussina.

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Mussina's WAR total puts him in the top 20 all time. There are roughly 55-60 pitchers in the Hall for their MLB pitching accomplishments. You'd have to be a real small Hall guy to exclude someone on par with Fergie Jenkins, Nolan Ryan, Steve Carlton, and Robin Roberts. If you add together Whitey Ford and Catfish Hunter you just barely leapfrog Mussina.

So I might be biased.

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Both Brock and Boggs had some unusual circumstances behind their surges. Boggs came up very late (Nick had over a two year head start), and Brock had the advantage of being a durable but relatively low-walk leadoff hitter who spent his 30s getting 650 ABs/700+ PAs a season. Brock got almost 1700 hits in his 30s despite hitting under .300.

And I know you disagree, but Brock has one of the lower WAR totals among HOF outfielders, VC committee selections included. If he was active today he might not make the Hall.

In terms of a path to 3000 hits, Brock is a more likely model for Nick than Boggs us. As you noted, Boggs was a late bloomer but then hit .350 in his prime.

Anybody who watched Brock play in his prime knows that he's Hall-worthy. I try not to be an old fuddy-duddy, but this is a guy who dominated games. World Series games, to boot. In an era when runs were very hard to come by, he generated runs with his legs game in and game out. I guarantee if you'd seen him in the context of his day you'd feel very differently about him.

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Anybody who watched Brock play in his prime knows that he's Hall-worthy. I try not to be an old fuddy-duddy, but this is a guy who dominated games. World Series games, to boot. In an era when runs were very hard to come by, he generated runs with his legs game in and game out. I guarantee if you'd seen him in the context of his day you'd feel very differently about him.

I won't try to dissuade you in your admiration for Brock. Maybe I would have a different opinion if I'd seen him. But maybe not. I can't think of a single example of someone I watched, even as a kid, about whom I dramatically disagree with today's assessment of.

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