Could Tillman be the Orioles 1st 20 Game Winner in a long time?

[CSB Jack]

Surely you can see the difference between team wins, and assigning those wins based on who happened to start games with a lot of runs scored, and happened to be on the mound when the offense took the lead? Nobody has a bit of an issue with winning, it's the bizarre and antiquated process to assign full credit for that win to someone who may or may not have had much of anything to do with it.

And, yea, we'd all be happy with five mediocre 20-game winners next year, since it would mean the O's were scoring eight or nine runs a game. That would be fun.

I agree that comparing two starting pitchers solely on wins is meaningless, but in order for a starting pitcher to get a win they have to have contributed significantly to the team getting a win. It's the converse that is more often true - that a solid effort by a starter results in no decision or a loss because the rest of the team let him down defensively or by not scoring runs to support his effort. But even if the starter pitched a mediocre game, to get the win he has to complete at least five innings and leave with his team ahead. That means he did at least a significant part of his job, which is to put his team in position to win.

And I am pretty sure I heard a football coach say once that you PLAY to WIN the GAME!!! A pitcher that does enough to be the winning pitcher has real value to his team even if he doesn't blow you away with advanced metrics.

[DrungoHazewood]

I agree that comparing two starting pitchers solely on wins is meaningless, but in order for a starting pitcher to get a win they have to have contributed significantly to the team getting a win.

Well... no. Just a handful of recent examples: On June 15th the Cards' Lance Lyn got the win, going five innings, allowing 13 baserunners and seven earned. In May the Twins' Vance Worley got a win over the O's after going 5.1, 13 baserunners, one strikeout, five earned. Mat Latos got a win in May where he allowed five homers. Tommy Hansen and Dan Haren each had 2012 wins where they allowed four homers in 5+ innings.

In 2008 Dice-K got a win in a game where he had 8 walks and 1 K in 5+ innings. In 2007 Andy Pettitte got a win over the O's in a game where he allowed 9 runs and had zero strikeouts. In 2001 Woody Williams got win in a game where he allowed 13 of the 29 baserunners he faced to reach base, and 9 of them to score. Several players in the 1950s, including Johnny Sain and Bob Friend, got wins in games where they allowed 10 runs.

And I am pretty sure I heard a football coach say once that you PLAY to WIN the GAME!!! A pitcher that does enough to be the winning pitcher has real value to his team even if he doesn't blow you away with advanced metrics.

I don't think you have to get any more advanced than hits and runs and walks and strikeouts and home runs allowed to show that pitcher wins are a terrible metric, even for a starter.

[CSB Jack]

Well... no. Just a handful of recent examples: On June 15th the Cards' Lance Lyn got the win, going five innings, allowing 13 baserunners and seven earned. In May the Twins' Vance Worley got a win over the O's after going 5.1, 13 baserunners, one strikeout, five earned. Mat Latos got a win in May where he allowed five homers. Tommy Hansen and Dan Haren each had 2012 wins where they allowed four homers in 5+ innings.

In 2008 Dice-K got a win in a game where he had 8 walks and 1 K in 5+ innings. In 2007 Andy Pettitte got a win over the O's in a game where he allowed 9 runs and had zero strikeouts. In 2001 Woody Williams got win in a game where he allowed 13 of the 29 baserunners he faced to reach base, and 9 of them to score. Several players in the 1950s, including Johnny Sain and Bob Friend, got wins in games where they allowed 10 runs.

I don't think you have to get any more advanced than hits and runs and walks and strikeouts and home runs allowed to show that pitcher wins are a terrible metric, even for a starter.

And yet.... in each of those games the team won, and they were ahead when he left the game, so his mediocre (or worse) performance did not prevent his team from winning. He gave up fewer runs than his team scored while he was pitching.

Granted, you can't have a guy who consistently does not pitch deep in games or you will burn out the bullpen and that will negatively impact the team's overall won-loss record. But picking out examples where starting pitchers gave up lots of runs and hits but still got a win doesn't mean they didn't still contribute to the win.

I'm not saying that Tillman's 14-3 record indicates he's a better pitcher or has pitched better than Wei-Yin Chen with his 6-4 record. But I am saying that those 14 wins have value. They are a reflection of his taking the mound consistently and pitching consistently well enough for the Orioles to win 82.4% of his decisions and 63.6% of his starts. I don't want a guy that pitches just well enough to lose. I want a guy that pitches well enough to win, regardless of what else is going on in the game.

[MurphDogg]

I believe it was HARDER to win 20 back then. Fewer bullpen appearances, weaker bullpen support, no pitch count, no mechanical analysis, video,

etc. The guy won 3 Cy Young Awards and pitched for most of 20 years in 3 decades. He was a force of nature. Few if anybody these days is even

close.

Averaging 38 starts instead of 33, huge difference.

[mdbdotcom]

I believe it was HARDER to win 20 back then. Fewer bullpen appearances, weaker bullpen support, no pitch count, no mechanical analysis, video,

etc. The guy won 3 Cy Young Awards and pitched for most of 20 years in 3 decades. He was a force of nature. Few if anybody these days is even

close.

Larger ballparks, larger strike zones, and higher mounds. For me, the real difference-maker for Palmer was not the wins, but the 50 complete game shutouts. That's just unreal in any league.

[DrungoHazewood]

I believe it was HARDER to win 20 back then. Fewer bullpen appearances, weaker bullpen support, no pitch count, no mechanical analysis, video,

etc.

Sorry, Roy, that's obviously wrong.

[Can_of_corn]

Larger ballparks, larger strike zones, and higher mounds. For me, the real difference-maker for Palmer was not the wins, but the 50 complete game shutouts. That's just unreal in any league.

Walter Johnson had 110.

[DrungoHazewood]

Walter Johnson had 110.

If only we all could play in a segregated AA Eastern League with a ball made of playdough and 500 foot fences and call it MLB.