Rosenthal: Bedard to Mariners 1 player from completion

[Lucky Jim]

Is Tillman really THAT far away?

He'll be in AA next year after performing pretty well in what could be the toughest pitchers' park in minor league baseball.

Clement's pretty good, but I feel he is overrated. The value of his bat is basically related to his ability to stay behind the plate.

The difference between a winning team or losing team is not having Clement over Triunfel, IMO.

It may just be that talent that is not major league ready is being undervalued. Billy Beane has taken in a lot of talent that isn't ready yet, but is full of upside.

Triunfel and Tillman of course are higher risk players, but both are top talents with a ton of upside. Sherrill is a guy that we can spin off for much more than the value Chen holds.

So if thats deal, its a very good deal. If Clement is included, and one of the others is taken out, that is also a very good deal. I wouldn't complain either way.

Do we have park neutral numbers for him? Because he wasn't very good last year. Actually, looking at his splits, he was worse on the road than he was at home when he was at High Desert.

So, is he close to AA?

[utvolzac]

Do we have park neutral numbers for him? Because he wasn't very good last year. Actually, looking at his splits, he was worse on the road than he was at home when he was at High Desert.

So, is he close to AA?

At 19, I'm not as much concerned with his stats as much as his make up at this point. Does he have 3 solid pitches that he can at least show some command over? Or does he live off a fastball, with 1 out pitch and a "developing change up", like most Single A pitchers.

[Lucky Jim]

At 19, I'm not as much concerned with his stats as much as his make up at this point. Does he have 3 solid pitches that he can at least show some command over? Or does he live off a fastball, with 1 out pitch and a "developing change up", like most Single A pitchers.

I'm not concerned with him as a prospect - I'm just questioning how close he is to ML. As per NoVaO.

[davearm]

No - that's my point. If you read my posts, I like Triunfel just fine. But not as a second component - he's all risk. And he's all projection.

He's a GREAT third component in a trade.

This is the same reason I was down on Morrow (and prefer Clement) - lower ceiling, perhaps, but more likely to fulfill it.

A deal with Jones and Triunfel (but not Clement) doesn't mitigate risk nearly enough. Jones is borderline risky, himself. Making having a more sure second component all the more important.

And here we have perfectly illustrated why Triunfel is virtually certain not to be in this deal.

Being conservative and risk-averse by nature, MacPhail is highly unlikely to take Triunfel as the #2 guy in a Bedard trade (and FWIW I agree).

And the Mariners are highly unlikely to make the guy with the highest ceiling in their system the #3 guy in a Bedard trade (and FWIW I agree there, too).

There's just simply not a very good fit here on Triunfel.

Jones, Clement, Tillman/Chen is the right ballpark, IMO. It dovetails nicely with the pitching-heavy Roberts deal too.

[Lucky Jim]

And here we have perfectly illustrated why Triunfel is virtually certain not to be in this deal.

Being conservative and risk-averse by nature, MacPhail is highly unlikely to take Triunfel as the #2 guy in a Bedard trade (and FWIW I agree).

And the Mariners are highly unlikely to make the guy with the highest ceiling in their system the #3 guy in a Bedard trade (and FWIW I agree there, too).

There's just simply not a very good fit here on Triunfel.

Jones, Clement, Tillman/Chen is the right ballpark, IMO. It dovetails nicely with the pitching-heavy Roberts deal too.

I'm in perfect agreement. Wow. Feels nice.

[RShack]

I could care less about guys who can help us immediately. I want to build for the future, and that's what his deal does. The high ceiling guys are who I want. I have no interest in dealing Bedard for mediocre talent that can help us now. We need to maximize the talent that we get in return, not the immediate help. There isn't enough "immediate help" out there that could help us to anything significant. And, I could care less about being helped immediately to another 4th place finish.

AM has to balance some of "immediately" with some of "long-term", but what he's mainly worried about is "Real Soon Now". Trading his best guys, he has to mainly be focused on that for at least 2 reasons:

• He's got to put a good team on the field in 2009 if he wants to compete by 2010. He's only got 1 crappy season to spend, not several of them. He started with a 6-Player team, and by 2010 he needs to have a 12- or 13-Player team. Since it's the AL-East, let's say he needs a 13-Player team. So, he's gotta solve 7 net problems. That's not counting normal attrition, which adds another 2 if you figure 1 per year just for that. It also doesn't include the problems he creates by trading good players, which is why he hates to trade good players. Since he's looking at trading his 3 good players, plus cope with 2 years of attrition, that means he's got 12 net problems to solve. That's a whole lot. And he's only got 2 seasons (3 winters) to do it.

  .

• He's got to get guys that actually turn out to be very good ML players. People like to talk about prospects, but they aren't the Real Thing yet, and only some of them will prove to be the Real Thing. Every year of development they're away from the big-league level, the greater the risk they'll crap out.

So there's no way he can trade everybody for some distant future. He's got to be trading guys to solve problems for Real Soon Now. That's what his main focus is: Real Soon Now. There might be some focus on "Right Away" and some focus on "Way Down the Road", but the main focus is on "Real Soon Now". Like I said, he's only really got one year to burn, and a second year to be mostly there.

[orangedive]

And here we have perfectly illustrated why Triunfel is virtually certain not to be in this deal.

Being conservative and risk-averse by nature, MacPhail is highly unlikely to take Triunfel as the #2 guy in a Bedard trade (and FWIW I agree).

And the Mariners are highly unlikely to make the guy with the highest ceiling in their system the #3 guy in a Bedard trade (and FWIW I agree there, too).

There's just simply not a very good fit here on Triunfel.

Jones, Clement, Tillman/Chen is the right ballpark, IMO. It dovetails nicely with the pitching-heavy Roberts deal too.

Dave, as an outsider, do you think it's too much to think the O's will get Jones, Clement, Tillman, & Chen?

[ColumbiaOriole]

And here we have perfectly illustrated why Triunfel is virtually certain not to be in this deal.

Being conservative and risk-averse by nature, MacPhail is highly unlikely to take Triunfel as the #2 guy in a Bedard trade (and FWIW I agree).

And the Mariners are highly unlikely to make the guy with the highest ceiling in their system the #3 guy in a Bedard trade (and FWIW I agree there, too).

There's just simply not a very good fit here on Triunfel.

Jones, Clement, Tillman/Chen is the right ballpark, IMO. It dovetails nicely with the pitching-heavy Roberts deal too.

Well said.

[Jimbo81]

I just had a thought. What if we are flipping Sherill in the Roberts deal to get Murton. Also we might be giving Payton to the M's aswell.

M's

Bedard

Payton

Cubs

Roberts

Sherill

O's

Jones

Clement

Chen

Tillman

Gallagher

Marshall

Cedeno

Murton

Kinda makes sense I guess.

Eh.

[brvn52]

Right...I would like to see the deal be much larger:

Mariners get:

Payton

Millar

Bedard

Cherry/Aquino/FCab....Or any of the disposable pitchers on the 40 man

Orioles get:

Sexson

Sherrill

Triunfel

Jones

Clement

Chen

10 player deals obviously don't happen often but to get us Clement, Jones and Triunfel, we should try and take on Sexson...They can take 2 of our vets but they can help them and they save money on Sexson's contract.

No way Seattle would give up their those 3 without another top player coming back. I think if you turned Clement into Tillman and took Cherry/Acquino/FCab out from our side of the deal it would be a lot more fair. The deal would give us a ML ready CF and ML ready 2B (both needs) as well as a LOOGY and then 2 top prospects (SS/3B and a P). In addition to this, we would get Sexson, who, while a salary dump, I feel could replace Millar's production and maybe with a good first half could be worth something at the trade deadline. Also, of course, we rid ourselves of Millar and Payton. Really like this deal.

[Black & Orange]

I just had a thought. What if we are flipping Sherill in the Roberts deal to get Murton. Also we might be giving Payton to the M's aswell.

I know he's older, but is Sherill considered a "power" lefty? Trembley said in the recent past that he'd like to get a guy in the bullpen that is a power lefty...

[davearm]

Dave, as an outsider, do you think it's too much to think the O's will get Jones, Clement, Tillman, & Chen?

Borderline too much.

I think that'd be a fantastic deal, even knowing not too much about Tillman and Chen.

The M's could maybe go that far if they really felt the need to make a big splash. I'd say the odds are against it though.

[NoVaO]

Do we have park neutral numbers for him? Because he wasn't very good last year. Actually, looking at his splits, he was worse on the road than he was at home when he was at High Desert.

So, is he close to AA?

He was still pretty good.

Even if his splits don't show the park effect doesn't mean you throw them out the window. He just pitched extremely well at home. If he pitched in a neutral park the way he pitched in High Desert, his numbers would look much better.

And his numbers without considering the park-effect aren't too bad. A few more hits than you would like. Same with homeruns and walks. But he has a good K rate and he really improved over the second half of the year.

And then we have to consider that he was 19 and his second year of pro ball. His ERA is high, but compare him to the rest of his teammates, especially those who started even 1 game for them.

[Jimbo81]

I know he's older, but is Sherill considered a "power" lefty? Trembley said in the recent past that he'd like to get a guy in the bullpen that is a power lefty...

No just a specialist I think.

[Frobby]

I know he's older, but is Sherill considered a "power" lefty? Trembley said in the recent past that he'd like to get a guy in the bullpen that is a power lefty...

Heck, yes - take a look at his K/9 stats.