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Should we just spend like drunken sailors for the next 2.5 seasons no matter the long term effects?


Frobby

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It occurs to me that:

1. We may not be able to keep Davis beyond 2015.

2. We may not be able to keep Wieters beyond 2015.

3. Hardy is only under contract through 2014.

4. Markakis is signed through 2014, with an option for 2015.

5. We have a ton of players who are in their absolute prime right now, but will be hitting their 30's in three years or less.

6. We are a contending team right now, but we have some holes that probably mean we'll fall short of being a World Champion.

So, one way we could look at this is that our window of opportunity is right now, and if we have to spend to get the additional players we need to make a serious WS run, maybe we should do it even if that means that in 5 years we'll start to be the 2012 Phillies.

I've always resisted going for short term gain that leads to longer term pain. That's more or less what happened in the mid-late 90's, and look how long it took to pull out of that tailspin. But if we're in true contender mode now, do we owe it to ourselves to "go for it?"

I still think the better case is that we need to build for the long term, but it's food for thought.

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I think if we continue to struggle with our TOR potential, draft picks (Matusz, Hobgood, Bundy, Gausman(?))...

then the only way we can go deep into the playoffs and take a chance on signing a Cliff Lee TOR starter.

Will we decide to spend (probably not) ? Will that TOR starter be available and amenable to signing with the O's??

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To an extent, yes. Like Oz says, "Right player, right price", except in baseball, with no salary cap, it's more like, "Right player, reasonable price."

You gotta spend money to make money, so if PA wants to be making more money from the O's, he's gotta spend some while our talent level is at its highest in the last 15 years. Just need some complimentary pieces, nothing too crazy. I definitely don't want to be fighting for that last wild card spot every year, the next 5 years.

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It occurs to me that:

1. We may not be able to keep Davis beyond 2015.

2. We may not be able to keep Wieters beyond 2015.

3. Hardy is only under contract through 2014.

4. Markakis is signed through 2014, with an option for 2015.

5. We have a ton of players who are in their absolute prime right now, but will be hitting their 30's in three years or less.

6. We are a contending team right now, but we have some holes that probably mean we'll fall short of being a World Champion.

So, one way we could look at this is that our window of opportunity is right now, and if we have to spend to get the additional players we need to make a serious WS run, maybe we should do it even if that means that in 5 years we'll start to be the 2012 Phillies.

I've always resisted going for short term gain that leads to longer term pain. That's more or less what happened in the mid-late 90's, and look how long it took to pull out of that tailspin. But if we're in true contender mode now, do we owe it to ourselves to "go for it?"

I still think the better case is that we need to build for the long term, but it's food for thought.

Interesting thoughts.

A lot of what happens, will be driven by what the owner believes he wants to spend on this team.

Note, I do not advocate blowing up the payroll, salaries are already way too high, but you also have to keep in mind fair market value, which is always subjective to one's personal believes.

But, they built this team, and to not try and keep it, and improve it, will be a crying shame, IMO.

I for one, and really glad that I am not DD.

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This is how I am starting to think too. 2014 could be the year to go for it all. Then in 2015 we may need to see what prospects we can get for CD and Wieters, while building around Manny and AJ. Eventually we will be unable to keep all of these guys at their market value. If I am going to pick a guy to build around starting 2016 it is Manny.

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We really only need to add a TOR SP and a solid 2B to be WS contenders, as opposed to just the playoff contenders we are now. I don't think we completely mortgage the future to acquire those two pieces. The SP is the hard part, because there really isn't one on the FA market next year. But I don't understand why we aren't in on Miguel Gonzalez II. Actually I do. We aren't going to spend like sailors.....ever. The PA scheme is to keep the team in contention and that is good enough to put the fannies in the seats. He don't need no stinkin' WS.

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If it's one player, yes I'm alright with that.

If it's a slew of players, no. I don't want to go through what the Cubs have gone through the past 4 years.

The Playoffs are a crap-shoot. If you consistently put your team in position to make the Playoffs, you'll have a great chance to win a title eventually. There's no reason to overpay for a minimal increase in likelihood to win for one or two years. It's best to spread out your chances of winning over several seasons.

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I don't like large FA contracts and think they often provide a very poor return on investment.

Of course they do.

However if the window is going to close in 2016 anyway, it would be nice to have something to show for the run other then just a WC berth.

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BTW, I disagree with the sentiment that the organization won't be able to retain Davis or Wieters. If the org can afford to "go for it" and overpay for the next two seasons, then it can utilize those resources to extend what they already have.

What if they do what the Red Sox did last offseason? Pay a fair number of quality free agents going rate for a 1-2 year commitment?

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I love how any time spending is discussed, the superlatives automatically accompany it.

"Like a drunken sailor!"

"Huge $200 million contracts and signing every free agent!"

"Yankees payroll!"

How about we spend something....ANYTHING. We don't have to go off half cocked and just flush money down the drain for the heck of it.

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I love how any time spending is discussed, the superlatives automatically accompany it.

"Like a drunken sailor!"

"Huge $200 million contracts and signing every free agent!"

"Yankees payroll!"

How about we spend something....ANYTHING. We don't have to go off half cocked and just flush money down the drain for the heck of it.

I thought the payroll was 91 million, and for comparison isn't Tampa at $25 million?

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BTW, I disagree with the sentiment that the organization won't be able to retain Davis or Wieters. If the org can afford to "go for it" and overpay for the next two seasons, then it can utilize those resources to extend what they already have.

You'll note I said "may not," not "will not." The team has some hard choices to make concerning how they choose to spend their money over the next several years.

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