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Should we just spend like drunken sailors for the next 2.5 seasons no matter the long term effects?


Frobby

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It occurs to me that:

1. We may not be able to keep Davis beyond 2015.

2. We may not be able to keep Wieters beyond 2015.

3. Hardy is only under contract through 2014.

4. Markakis is signed through 2014, with an option for 2015.

5. We have a ton of players who are in their absolute prime right now, but will be hitting their 30's in three years or less.

6. We are a contending team right now, but we have some holes that probably mean we'll fall short of being a World Champion.

So, one way we could look at this is that our window of opportunity is right now, and if we have to spend to get the additional players we need to make a serious WS run, maybe we should do it even if that means that in 5 years we'll start to be the 2012 Phillies.

I've always resisted going for short term gain that leads to longer term pain. That's more or less what happened in the mid-late 90's, and look how long it took to pull out of that tailspin. But if we're in true contender mode now, do we owe it to ourselves to "go for it?"

I still think the better case is that we need to build for the long term, but it's food for thought.

Despite all that, and knowing that in 2014 we'll have more MASN money plus an additional $25M from MLB, there was a modest payrollincrease. I think Angelos is convinced that Duquette and Showalter can pull off a "Moneyball" miracle.

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I thought the payroll was 91 million, and for comparison isn't Tampa at $25 million?

Per Cot's, the payroll is at $92 mm. It's going to rise significantly over the next couple of years even if we bring in no expensive free agents, because we have a lot of players who are arbitration eligible or under contracts that provide for significant raises. We do shed BRob's $10 mm, Hammel's $6.75 mm, Feldman's salary and Betemit's $1.75 mm.

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Per Cot's, the payroll is at $92 mm. It's going to rise significantly over the next couple of years even if we bring in no expensive free agents, because we have a lot of players who are arbitration eligible or under contracts that provide for significant raises. We do shed BRob's $10 mm, Hammel's $6.75 mm, Feldman's salary and Betemit's $1.75 mm.

With the payroll rising and even with additional MLB TV Money coming in, will this team be allowed to go after big name free agents?

I think the first priority to resign our own FAs and lock them up. Roch wrote an article yesterday about McLouth and how he is a FA, Thats just one of the long list.

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I would definitely like to see a splash in the FA SP department. Its time to get an ace. If there was even someone like Garza thrown into the rotation that could push Chen to #2, Tillman #3, and so forth and would do wonders. I'll wait for it and probably check MLBTR everyday this off season feeling in the pit of my stomach "this is it!" And will come up disappointed. That's really a hard pressing need and quite literally one single player could take this team to a different level.

Not to sound too negative necause I'm not generally negative but a lot of things will need to go right to squeeze into the playoffs this year. If there was a TOR guy in there somewhere I would feel completely different. The rotation is treading water and needs to get way better if anyone wants to see some real solid contention.

Anyways...not a drunken sailor but overpay to make sure to get your guy (for once)....yes, absolutely.

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I still think the better case is that we need to build for the long term, but it's food for thought.

This will always be my goal. I don't want to just contend for 2-3 years and then become mediocre like we did after '97. We'll have to make hard decisions on who to sign and who to trade or let go.

The good thing is, it looks like we'll have at least a couple of years to continue to build the farm to replace guys that we may not be able to sign. That is the key for me. Build the farm, be a more financially able version of the Rays.

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If the main thing we have to give up is money OR prospects, I think it's something to seriously consider. If it will cost money AND most of our top prospects in the minors, I'm not sure that's the right way to go. We will be stuck with high cost players without any real talent to take thier place in a few years. We've seen how that worked out in the past.

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This will always be my goal. I don't want to just contend for 2-3 years and then become mediocre like we did after '97. We'll have to make hard decisions on who to sign and who to trade or let go.

The good thing is, it looks like we'll have at least a couple of years to continue to build the farm to replace guys that we may not be able to sign. That is the key for me. Build the farm, be a more financially able version of the Rays.

Like the Indians did a while back, develop players through their system, and then lock them up long term, before they were eligible for free agency.

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The question is even with the increase in money come it will Pete use that to put it in his pockets or use the money to get players. I don't think we have to have a payroll in the 160 milllion range but a payroll around 120 million seems fair. We have some contracts comming up this season and then the following season the key is to figure out where we have guys we think can replace them and keep the main core. The core to me is Jones, Manny, and Davis everyone else can rotate around and would not be a huge loss. Matt is a great catcher but not worht 12-15 million dollars a year when you can get just slightly less contribution and a third of the cost. You also have to be proactive and make trades at the right time. The Rays knew shields was going to cost to much and moved him for a ytounger stud prospect under team control for 5 years and a cheap salary. We may not have a shields but a guy like Johnson could be traded and give us a decent return with getting younger and save some money with Hunter or O'Day taking over the closer role. Also the more you win the more attendence increase the more money you bring in. If we can sustain the playoff caliber team this year and next i think the attendence will see another jump. There still are some fans that think last year was a fluke and unless the see the Orioles in their newspaper on top of the standing are not a believer.

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This is justa rough estimate/ projection of what the payroll could look like next year clearly things can change with our guys and how they produce the rest of the year.

C-Wieters 7 million

1B Davis 7 million if no extension 12 million if the do.

2B Flaherty 500K

SS Hardy 8 Million

3B Many 500K

LF- Urrieta- 500k

CF Jones- 13 milllion

RF Markakis 15 million

DH- Hoes 500k or vetern around 2 million

Bench 4 million

SP Chen 4 Million

5P Gonzo 500K

SP Tilman 500K

Sp Vetern pitcher maybe Feldman about 6 million

Sp Gausman 500k

Closer Hunter 2.5

RP O'Day 3.2

RP Patton 1 million

RP Macfarland 500k

RP Steve Johnson 500K

RP Lefty specilist 1.5 million

RP Vetern righy 3 million

That puts the payroll around 80 million you could easily go and get another player for the top of the rotation instead of bringing back Feldman for 6 million.

I would be trading Johnson to someone that needs a closer and has a young prospect that would be ready to play SS or 3B in the year 2015 when Hardy leaves.

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Yes, its definitely time to spend - this is a definite window for the franchise now

and those windows don't come around that often. The Red Sox have proven you don't have to be stuck with mistake contracts if they don't work out or your window

passes - and I think the Phillies will soon prove the same. There are franchises who have huge payroll capacity - (LAD, LAA, NYY, others will emerge no doubt) or teams on the verge willing to take on a big contract if necessary. As long as your asset doesn't completely break down and become completely worthless - you can always find a buyer. So spend the money, go for the title while the core is in its prime, and have the fire sale when the window closes replenishing your system in the process.

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This is justa rough estimate/ projection of what the payroll could look like next year clearly things can change with our guys and how they produce the rest of the year.

C-Wieters 7 million

1B Davis 7 million if no extension 12 million if the do.

2B Flaherty 500K

SS Hardy 8 Million

3B Many 500K

LF- Urrieta- 500k

CF Jones- 13 milllion

RF Markakis 15 million

DH- Hoes 500k or vetern around 2 million

Bench 4 million

SP Chen 4 Million

5P Gonzo 500K

SP Tilman 500K

Sp Vetern pitcher maybe Feldman about 6 million

Sp Gausman 500k

Closer Hunter 2.5

RP O'Day 3.2

RP Patton 1 million

RP Macfarland 500k

RP Steve Johnson 500K

RP Lefty specilist 1.5 million

RP Vetern righy 3 million

That puts the payroll around 80 million you could easily go and get another player for the top of the rotation instead of bringing back Feldman for 6 million.

I would be trading Johnson to someone that needs a closer and has a young prospect that would be ready to play SS or 3B in the year 2015 when Hardy leaves.

And that $15 million going to Markakis goes away in 2014.

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It seems like a good idea to go for it as you say, but I wouldn't it. I just can't risk more major rebuilding because we go for the championship.

The idea of this current team contending for a World Series is fools gold in my opinion. The rotation is just too weak.

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