Jump to content

NOW you can complain about the situational hitting


Frobby

Recommended Posts

I believe they posted that the O's were 17 for 46 in RISP situations in the four proceeding games. They may have failed with a runner on 3B a few times, but they also had some successes.

I just went through the summaries and there were 11 failures with a runner on 3rd and less than 2 outs over these 5 games. There were A LOT of successes, so it probably was close to 50/50. However, when the failures happen over twice per game, they're going to stick out in people's minds. I'm just trying to explain why it may seem like a problem to the casual viewer without the stats in front of them.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 120
  • Created
  • Last Reply
I just went through the summaries and there were 11 failures with a runner on 3rd and less than 2 outs over these 5 games. There were A LOT of successes, so it probably was close to 50/50. However, when the failures happen over twice per game, they're going to stick out in people's minds. I'm just trying to explain why it may seem like a problem to the casual viewer without the stats in front of them.

Fair enough. By the way, the Orioles had 188 at bats in that situation in the first 100 games of the year. So, roughly two opportunities a game. They've had a lot more than that since the ASB, and that's a good thing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The O's have had 11 unsuccessful ABs in the 5 games since the break. They've had a lot of successes, too. They've been swinging the bats well and getting into these situations a lot since Friday.

In what situations? I looked and only found four times where the orioles has a runner on third with no outs. They got the runner in twice or 50% of the time. If I made a mistake someone can correct me.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I just went through the summaries and there were 11 failures with a runner on 3rd and less than 2 outs over these 5 games. There were A LOT of successes, so it probably was close to 50/50. However, when the failures happen over twice per game, they're going to stick out in people's minds. I'm just trying to explain why it may seem like a problem to the casual viewer without the stats in front of them.

Well they're averaging 11 hits per game since the ASB....they're going to have more opportunities to score runners from third. Either way its kind of a silly reason to be critical of the offense for not scoring the runner from third just because you those few times are more recent in your mind, even when they are outnumbered by successes.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Stop digging dude. No it didn't happen twice in the Texas series. The only time they got a runner to third with 0 outs, they scored three times in successive hits with runners on third.

Didn't they strand the bases loaded with no outs?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yes, this is a much tougher situation. They've had some problems recently

Last game:

Man on 3rd 0 out - doesn't get the runner in

Bases loaded 0 out (2 days in a row) - doesn't get a run out of it either time.

Again I'm disappointed but much less so given the pitcher they were facing. Actually more disappointed in what was it, only 3 hits off of Chen?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Pretty sure they did in Texas... Yeah. They definitely did.

I'm pretty sure it was once in the finale of the Texas series, and then once in the first game against KC. That doesn't change the fact that it was in consecutive games though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I know plenty about baseball and he's almost right. With the tying run in the 9th on 3rd with 0 outs, there really isn't an excuse for not getting that runner in. There are multiple options.

I don't know if anyone has pointed this out, but statistically, this is just wrong. You might find this article informative. Interestingly, the 2009 Orioles had one of the best percentages of runs scored from third with less than 2 outs. I guess you all would like to go back to the 2009 Orioles rather than the 2012 or 2013 Orioles? More interestingly, the ability to score the runner on third with less than two outs doesn't correlate at all with winning percentage.

http://www.azsnakepit.com/2013/3/13/4097416/scoring-runner-third-less-than-two-outs-skill

Link to comment
Share on other sites

25% of the time they won't score (50% * 50%).*

Math, yay!

*(Assuming 50% get him in, 50% make an out)

You can't do it that way because the bats aren't independent. The odds of getting the run in go down after the first out, and after the second out. You can see it this way...

You say 25% chance of failure because each batter has a 50% chance of failure... .5 x .5 = .25.

I say, you have a 25% chance of success because each batter has a 50% change of getting him in... .5 x .5 = .25.

Wait a minute, what happened to the other 50% of the time?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You can't do it that way because the bats aren't independent. The odds of getting the run in go down after the first out, and after the second out. You can see it this way...

You say 25% chance of failure because each batter has a 50% chance of failure... .5 x .5 = .25.

I say, you have a 25% chance of success because each batter has a 50% change of getting him in... .5 x .5 = .25.

Wait a minute, what happened to the other 50% of the time?

The bolded is simply incorrect. When you're calculating the chances of succeeding the first time OR the second time, you multiply the chances of failure and subtract from 1.

What you're calculating is the chances of succeeding the first time AND the second time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Is Chris Davis not allowed a slump? For every other player comments in this thread and others would be met with the cautious reply of, "Relax, all players have their ups and downs, he's just slumping", yet with Chris Davis that seems nowhere to be found.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The bolded is simply incorrect. When you're calculating the chances of succeeding the first time OR the second time, you multiply the chances of failure and subtract from 1.

What you're calculating is the chances of succeeding the first time AND the second time.

I recognized that as soon as I woke up this morning. It popped into my head that I'd calculated the chance of succeeding both times and the other 50% were the chance of succeeding once and failing the second. That's what I get for making bleary-eyed posts when taking my dog out at 3 AM. That said, the odds do still go down with each successive out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.


  • Posts

    • The pitcher …the guys here are overvaluing prospects. Id honestly trade quite a lot if it got us a ring.
    • Yeah, also interested to hear some thoughts on the draft from people!
    • Bradish was shut down and then did a full rehab before he started pitching again. Anyway go ahead and believe what you are going to believe, I'm not going to try and convince you, but there are some facts you are leaving out.
    • And how many of those teams rotations would you trade for the one that we have currently? In just about any/every projected playoff matchup save for the Guardians and maybe the Twins, the other team has the matchup advantage in the series. IMO those are long odds when trying to be successful in multiple rounds of the playoffs in October. Maybe you are comfortable with that? I am not.
    • I doubt Elias would be much moved to act a week before the deadline when asks by Sellers still skew high but I guess it is worth noting the Orioles play their Marlins series July 23-25. Who Tanner Scott and AJ Puk and Burch Smith and Vinny Nittoli play for in any given 3-game series probably doesn't make a game of difference, and the division probably won't come down to 1 game.  
    • Remember Bradish pitched for 3 months with a torn UCL.  And pitched well.  Until he couldn't.  Just because a tear happens doesn't mean it will curtail you right away.   I saw FB's face and body language during that game.  Something was off.    I can speak of this from personal experience.  I have a torn UCL and a bone chip the size of a quarter in my right elbow, and have had it for years.  Back from when I first got it looked at 20 years ago.   I just lived with the pain.  Sometimes up to 8 tylenol a day.   It always hurts and it wasn't until I was bowling one specific shot a few years ago and it completely blew out that I had to go to a orthopedist for it.   I just rested it for 3 months and have done nothing overhand as far as sports and working out since.  Anytime I throw overhand?  It kills. No way I could throw a baseball 80 times a game.  My arm would probably fall off.    The elbow really controls your overhand throws.  Underhand and side arm is not nearly as bad. 
    • How many teams won the trade deadline with a big time acquisitions and then won the championship.   2023 Rangers traded for rental Montgomery a solid mid rotation guy and rental Chapman nice bullpen piece. 2022 Astros traded for Trey Mancini 2021 Braves traded for Solor, Rosario, and Duvall.   2020 Covid year with weird deadline 2019 Nats traded for Daniel Hudson and Roenilis Ellis  2018 Red Sox traded for Andrew Cashner  2017 Astros traded for Justin Verlander which was a great pickup and changed there team when he bounced back but the trade itself was for very little in terms of prospects and more salary dump for rebuilding Tigers.    2016 Cubs trade for Chapman and Mike Montgomery.   2015 Royals traded for Johnny Cueto a veteran rental starter coming off all star season but pitched to a 4.86 ERA for Royals .  Also traded for Ben Zobrist.   2014 Giants traded for Jake Peavy as a rental.  
  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...