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Machado and Davis decline - numbers do not lie


Pat Kelly

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Slumps do happen, but there are disturbing numbers on both of these guys that are approaching the 'it might be more than a slump' territory. CUF will say that Machado can't hit the fastball because he's too busy looking for the slider and gets blown away!

Yes that is true. Everything plays off other pitches like I've been trying to bash into your skull all year to no avail. Manny Machado cannot recognize a slider coming out of a pitchers hand. He doesn't know if it's a fastball or slider and how sharp the break is. At the beginning of the year pitchers didn't know this. He would hammer cement mixer sliders, but he wasn't seeing a huge dosage of them especially with 2 strikes. If a pitcher has a sharp slider and he locates it Machado can't do anything about it at this point in his career. It's the reality, right now he cannot handle this.

He's trying to adjust because he and the whole AL know this. As a result all the extreme damage he was doing against fastballs early in the year is gone. He used to just go up there and look dead red fastball because he's a pretty good fastball hitter when he sits on it.

So why throw him one over and over? Put a slider in his mind and make him chase or be late on a heater. He already swings at everything and anything no matter if it's a ball or strike. How else could you have a walk percentage of 3?

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Did you read the article? Those trends didn't even raise an eyebrow?

So Davis has been striking out, so a kid in his first full year hit .275 for a month. BIG DEAL.

Davis' striking out more is the only real concern, but one bad July (even then an OPS over .800) is not that big of a deal.

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So Davis has been striking out, so a kid in his first full year hit .275 for a month. BIG DEAL.

Davis' striking out more is the only real concern, but one bad July (even then an OPS over .800) is not that big of a deal.

If Davis is an .800 OPS player for the rest of the season it would be a huge deal. Even the blindest optimist could surely see that, right?

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So Davis has been striking out, so a kid in his first full year hit .275 for a month. BIG DEAL.

Davis' striking out more is the only real concern, but one bad July (even then an OPS over .800) is not that big of a deal.

Davis improvements in the beginning of this year were largely due to plate discipline improvements. I'd say his former plate discipline (and worse) showing up for an extended period of time is certainly a cause for concern. 2012 Chris Davis is still a decent player, but he isn't someone you invest a ton of money in or someone who can be the key bat in a championship caliber team. Chris Davis is striking out a ton and not walking anymore, exactly the trend that held him back before this year. A subpar OBP for two months and only 8 unintentional walks during that time is worthy of at least slight concern. It certainly isn't absurd.

And I don't think the point is that Machado hit .275 for a month. It's .271 for almost two months, and a sub-.300 OBP in that timeframe as well. Machado becoming an out machine for 2 months after his start is also clearly worthy of a little concern.

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Hitting is harder than pitching and defense. More mistakes are made hitting than at any other part of the game. This is why you see greater improvement in hitting in a young player than you would see in defense or in young pitching. Hitting is just so much more difficult.

The ship has sailed with Davis being a complete hitter. He's in his 6th season and he's 27.

Machado is still so inexperienced that he could turn his weaknesses into non factors eventually. That's the bright side of this thread.

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Davis improvements in the beginning of this year were largely due to plate discipline improvements. I'd say his former plate discipline (and worse) showing up for an extended period of time is certainly a cause for concern. 2012 Chris Davis is still a decent player, but he isn't someone you invest a ton of money in or someone who can be the key bat in a championship caliber team. Chris Davis is striking out a ton and not walking anymore, exactly the trend that held him back before this year. A subpar OBP for two months and only 8 unintentional walks during that time is worthy of at least slight concern. It certainly isn't absurd.

And I don't think the point is that Machado hit .275 for a month. It's .271 for almost two months, and a sub-.300 OBP in that timeframe as well. Machado becoming an out machine for 2 months after his start is also clearly worthy of a little concern.

Yeah but, there's nothing to see here. Just noise in the numbers. :rolleyes:

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Earl Webb's Record Is Safe?

Not so long ago was on a record-setting doubles pace, hitting 38 in 83 games through the end of June to put him in the mix to potentially top Earl Webb’s longstanding record of 67 in 1931.

And then Machado stopped hitting doubles.

He has just one double in 20 games this month, including 15 consecutive games without a double. During that double-less streak he’s also hit just .219 with a .575 OPS overall, so not making a run at Webb’s record is secondary to Machado simply showing he’s human at age 21.

Machado still leads baseball with 39 doubles, but he’s dropped into a tie for 21st place on the all-time list through 103 team games. Webb’s record is safe

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/07/26/earl-webb-is-safe-manny-machado-stopped-hitting-doubles/

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Earl Webb's Record Is Safe?

Not so long ago was on a record-setting doubles pace, hitting 38 in 83 games through the end of June to put him in the mix to potentially top Earl Webb’s longstanding record of 67 in 1931.

And then Machado stopped hitting doubles.

He has just one double in 20 games this month, including 15 consecutive games without a double. During that double-less streak he’s also hit just .219 with a .575 OPS overall, so not making a run at Webb’s record is secondary to Machado simply showing he’s human at age 21.

Machado still leads baseball with 39 doubles, but he’s dropped into a tie for 21st place on the all-time list through 103 team games. Webb’s record is safe

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/07/26/earl-webb-is-safe-manny-machado-stopped-hitting-doubles/

Yep, it was clear that it was safe at the beginning of the month. His pace was unsustainable, and I agree secondary to the automatic out he's become.

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I love the "book is out on Davis" crowd - and I don't want to make fun of anyone specifcially but it really makes me laugh.

Royals Manager: We have Baltimore this week. You heard about this Davis guy?

Royals GM: Davis?

Royals Manager: Yeah, Chris Davis. Says here been in the league 5 years. Has hit 70 home runs the last year and a half? 37 already this year!

Royals GM: Really - 37 home runs already? Want to scout him?

Royals Manager: Hate to bother them - but might be worth asking.

Royals GM: (calls Scout) : What do you know about this Davis with the Orioles?

Royals Scout: Been kind of wondering when someone would ask. Fastballs inside - can't hit 'em.

Royals Manager: Oh good. Let's just do that then.

Everyone relax, it's a slump. Davis is a career .268 hitter who was hitting .330 and on pace to break the single season HR record. He's going to cool off for a while. He hasn't been solved - he'll be back hitting again at some point.

Funny, but have you actually seen his BA based on pitch location? Also, if you've been watching the last 20 or so games, you would notice this is most certainly what teams are intentionally doing more of-- pitching him inside.

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I guess the point is this. So long as the Orioles continue to not lose games I really don't care.

Davis was always going to revert again, that is why it is hard to hit 61 homers without the aid of enhancement. But there is no reason to think that he is suddenly going to be a liability for the rest of the season. The same with Machado.

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Funny, but have you actually seen his BA based on pitch location? Also, if you've been watching the last 20 or so games, you would notice this is most certainly what teams are intentionally doing more of-- pitching him inside.

Fair enough. Do you think it's probable that teams have just become aware that they ought to pitch him inside in the last 20 games? What does the fact that in the full year of MLB that preceded the last 20 games - July 2012-June 2013 - Chris Davis hit 51 Home Runs while striking out 199 times tell us about the state of scouting reports on Chris Davis prior to the last 20 games? Is it possible teams were very aware of how they ought to attack Davis all along given that this is 5th season in the MLB, and variables in execution by the pitchers and variables in execution by Davis resulted in periods of both incredible binges of home runs and incredible binges in strikeouts?

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Fair enough. Do you think it's probable that teams have just become aware that they ought to pitch him inside in the last 20 games? What does the fact that in the full year of MLB that preceded the last 20 games - July 2012-June 2013 - Chris Davis hit 51 Home Runs while striking out 199 times tell us about the state of scouting reports on Chris Davis prior to the last 20 games? Is it possible teams were very aware of how they ought to attack Davis all along given that this is 5th season in the MLB, and variables in execution by the pitchers and variables in execution by Davis resulted in periods of both incredible binges of home runs and incredible binges in strikeouts?

I think Davis could prove to be an atypical player in that he could have found a way, to buck his major flaw as it is outlined with his career numbers. That flaw is the strikeout. More specifically I'm talking about his career BB/K ratio. This remains to be seen.

I was using the 20 game reference more or less arbitrarily but I think Davis was so scorching hot for most of the year that he could make solid contact with the inside stuff or lay off when he recognized it was out of the zone. He has cooled and now the bandaid has peeled off a hole in his game-- the ability to hit stuff on the inside.

Save for a few of the greats, every hitter has holes. Davis will have to find a way again to combat his major weakness.

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I guess the point is this. So long as the Orioles continue to not lose games I really don't care.

Davis was always going to revert again, that is why it is hard to hit 61 homers without the aid of enhancement. But there is no reason to think that he is suddenly going to be a liability for the rest of the season. The same with Machado.

The problem is he's become a liability at the plate for nearly 2 months now. It hasn't been "just a slump", its been almost half the season.

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