O's get Bud Norris

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, weams said:

Or was it O'Day? I thought Bud covered Ventura pretty well. 

You think 4ER in 4 1/3 innings is doing "pretty well"?

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, FlipTheBird said:

Or rather, what other moves might have been made? Norris made 28 starts in 2014. Someone was going to have to take those reigns if he's not here. Even if you just start Gausman (who had 20 starts in 2014) in the rotation from day one, he only eats up maybe 10 of those starts. Who's taking the rest? Odds are, they have to go acquire a starting pitcher at some point in 2014, and that would have cost them someone else.

First off, Ubaldo.  Sure he wasn't good that year but slot him at #5 he doesn't do enough damage to kill a 12 game lead.  Secondly even if you do bring in someone else he isn't going to cost Hader + Hoes + first round pick.

[weams]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You think 4ER in 4 1/3 innings is doing "pretty well"?

Nope. He just pitched like Yovani. 

[FlipTheBird]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

First off, Ubaldo.  Sure he wasn't good that year but slot him at #5 he doesn't do enough damage to kill a 12 game lead.  Secondly even if you do bring in someone else he isn't going to cost Hader + Hoes + first round pick.

That's impossible to know. Pitching comes at a premium, and we have no idea what they Orioles would have had to pay for whomever they might have decided to acquire. Leaving Ubaldo Jimenez in the starting rotation was not going to happen.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, FlipTheBird said:

That's impossible to know. Pitching comes at a premium, and we have no idea what they Orioles would have had to pay for whomever they might have decided to acquire. Leaving Ubaldo Jimenez in the starting rotation was not going to happen.

I'm going to go with it is possible to know since we have plenty of examples to go off.  Take Miley for instance, didn't cost anything close to what Norris cost.  Or a Tommy Hunter.  Back end guys are not normally very expensive.

[jtschrei]

All the trades were defensible at the time and they have all worked out poorly in the end. If the O's had won a WS with Miller and Norris, then we could all overlook the results. But this year's team would look completely different with Eduardo and Hader. 

The trades were in line with DD's mantra -- putting a team on the field every year that can go to the playoffs. He has traded assets every year to make the team more competitive in the short term. You can debate the reasons for that -- he wants a job like Toronto, Buck wants to win now, prospects are just suspects until they blossom.

Whatever the case, the results are the results. No World Series. Low cost guys with very high ceilings on other teams. These moves all look bad in hindsight. 

That said, DD has been consistent. I fully expect him to trade some assets very soon to improve the team this year. We have too much invested in Buck, Jones, Davis, etc. I could easily see Sisco, plus ??? getting traded for a starting pitcher in the next few weeks. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

When they aquired Norris he had a ERA + of 103 for the season.   Miley, at the time of the trade was +81.     

All they needed, if anything, was a back end guy.  You don't need to give up a first round pick, a high ceiling guy and a ML ready prospect with a low ceiling for that.

[FlipTheBird]

4 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

When they aquired Norris he had a ERA + of 103 for the season.   Miley, at the time of the trade was +81.     

Duquette does have a penchant for buying high on players.   He bought into Ubaldo's great last two months with Cleveland even though he sucked most of his time there.   He bought into Travis Snider's second half with Pittsburgh.   He trade for Parra when most expected him to regress after a hot first half.  

Though Norris struggled after the initial acquisition, 2014 wound up being his career year.

[glenn__davis]

35 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

The Norris trade and the Miller trade are defensible and debatable.   The interesting question is what would history have been if none of the following trades had been made. 

1. The Norris trade

2. The Miller trade

3. The Parra trade

4. The Miley trade

 

Do the Orioles still win the division in 2014?   Do the Orioles beat the Tigers in the playoffs?    Do the Orioles make the playoffs last year.

 

The Orioles would still potentially have Eduardo Rodriguez, Josh Hader, Ariel Miranda, and Zach Davies.

"He went to Paris, looking for answers to questions that bothered him so

He was impressive, young and aggressive, saving the world on his own

But warm summer breezes and French wines and cheeses put his ambition at bay

Summers and winters scattered like splinters and 4 or 5 years slipped away

 

He went to Paris looking for answers to question that bothered him so."

11 minutes ago, jtschrei said:

All the trades were defensible at the time and they have all worked out poorly in the end. If the O's had won a WS with Miller and Norris, then we could all overlook the results.  

 

I don't agree with this mindset.  The playoffs are a crapshoot.  All you can is try to build the strongest team you can to get there.  I don't believe the evaluation of the trade should be dependent on whether or not the Series was one.  We probably had the best team in baseball and ran into a hot KC team that dinked and dunked their way to a sweep.  In the context of what we were trying do at the time, I think both the Norris and Miller trades were defensible and I'd make them again.  I do think the Parra and Miley trades were poor.

[Tony-OH]

57 minutes ago, FlipTheBird said:

Though Norris struggled after the initial acquisition, 2014 wound up being his career year.

People tend to forget that Norris wasn't a rental, which is why his price tag was fairly high. Saying that, Hader was the only guy of value we gave up and he was in Delmarva and still has a long way to prove he can pitch effectively in the major leagues. 

I don't think that trade was necessarily a bad one and I can easily defend that one. Now the Parra for Davies trade? Undefendable.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

People tend to forget that Norris wasn't a rental, which is why his price tag was fairly high. Saying that, Hader was the only guy of value we gave up and he was in Delmarva and still has a long way to prove he can pitch effectively in the major leagues. 

I don't think that trade was necessarily a bad one and I can easily defend that one. Now the Parra for Davies trade? Undefendable.

So you don't think a first round pick holds significant value?  At the time of the trade I would have put the value of the pick as being higher than Hader, given how far away he was.

[Tony-OH]

20 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

So you don't think a first round pick holds significant value?  At the time of the trade I would have put the value of the pick as being higher than Hader, given how far away he was.

I'm pretty sure it ended up being the 37th overall selection so yes, there is value there. How much? that's debatable. When Hardball times did the valuation of draft picks through the first 50 selection, they put the chances of the 37th selection having a 7% chance of being a significant contributor (10+ WAR player) and 15% of a 3-WAR player. Another study have players drafted around this area at making the major league at 40%. 

So perhaps the value of that pick was higher than Hader and for a team that was rebuilding like the Astros it was probably an important factor. 

Either way, I said Hader was the only guy of value, I didn't say the only thing of value. That pick wasn't a guy yet. Semantics of course, but you started it.