Adam Jones continues to have some of the most absurd ABs of all time

[calmunderfire]

I've seen similar stuff. Certainly there is evidence that walk rates can increase with age/maturity, but generally production decreases. My guess it's more related to loss of other skills/bat speed and hitters guessing a bit more.

Yes. Generally players physical skills decline somewhere around 30. HR's, defense, AVG and all that stuff decreases, but drawing walks doesn't rely on bat speed and raw physicality. Walking is an old man skill.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Yes. Generally players physical skills decline somewhere around 30. HR's, defense, AVG and all that stuff decreases, but drawing walks doesn't rely on bat speed and raw physicality. Walking is an old man skill.

Yep, in context. I think you're right.

[jabba72]

Jones isnt going to be able to swing this way forever, unless he has some good testosterone supplements. Hopefully legal ones. But at some point his bat will slow down.

[DrungoHazewood]

Yes. Generally players physical skills decline somewhere around 30. HR's, defense, AVG and all that stuff decreases, but drawing walks doesn't rely on bat speed and raw physicality. Walking is an old man skill.

I don't want to be too nit-picky, but I think different physical skills improve and decline at different rates and times. A typical player peaks at 27 because that's where the sum of all of those skills plus experience and knowledge peak. Since (presumably) knowledge and experience never decline you would necessarily have to have a physical peak at or before 27.

Things like speed and quickness probably peak the day a player enters the league and only decline. Other things that are a combination of physical tools and learned skills (like the hit tool or maybe first step jumps on defense) probably peak later. It's well documented that defense, which is very physical-tool dependent, peaks at least several years earlier than hitting.

[calmunderfire]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9933

This ignores defense and positional value. There is a tendency to lose value in both these areas constantly. So yes, overall play probably maxes out at 27. I agree with everything you say.

I read this article, well I didn't read it, but I skipped to the tables and graphs. Walk Rate generally increases until the early 30s so I would expect more improvement from Jones plate discipline. Power also rises until pretty late. Metabolism slowing down has a pretty favorable effect on power. Yeah you get fatter if you are sedentary, but for some guys a lower calorie maintenance does wonders for your size and strength. My dad was 5'10" 145 at age 21. At 30 he was 5'10" 180 and was benching over 300 pounds.