Season Awards (MVP, Cy Young, ROY, GG, SS)

[luismatos4prez]

We're about 75% of the way through the year. About time to start discussing these things. Here's who I've got

AL MVP: Trout

NL MVP: McCutchen

AL Cy: Scherzer

NL Cy: Kershaw

AL ROY: Myers

NL ROY: Fernandez

GG C: Perez; Molina

GG 1B: Loney; Rizzo

GG 2B: Pedroia; Barney

GG 3B: Machado; Arenado

GG SS: Hardy; Simmons

GG LF: Marte; Gordon

GG CF: Cain; Gomez

GG RF: Victorino; Bruce

SS C: Mauer; Posey

SS 1B: Davis, Votto

SS 2B: Cano; Carpenter

SS 3B: Cabrera; Wright

SS SS: Segura; Lowrie

SS LF: Nava; Gonzalez

SS CF: Trout; McCutchen

SS RF: Bautista; Cuddyer

SS DH: Ortiz

[calmunderfire]

AL MVP: Cabrera

NL MVP: Votto

AL Cy Young: Hernandez

NL Cy Young: Harvey/Kershaw (too close right now)

[isestrex]

Pretty close to mine, luis...

The only changes I'd make:

AL MVP: Cabrera

SS LF: Ibanez (Nava's success is largely off of a platoon with Gomes)

I think Jones has a very good shot at the SS over Trout because he'll finish with more homers, more RBI and as long as the batting average is relatively close the voters will skew the traditional stats. I also think Markakis has a terrific shot at the GG in RF after looking at the numbers. Sure Victorino deserves it because he's a CF playing a weaker position and has been great. But Nick has been a little flashier this year and is more cemented as a "Right Fielder". I wonder how the voting will go...

[Malike]

Pretty close to mine, luis...

The only changes I'd make:

AL MVP: Cabrera

SS LF: Ibanez (Nava's success is largely off of a platoon with Gomes)

I think Jones has a very good shot at the SS over Trout because he'll finish with more homers, more RBI and as long as the batting average is relatively close the voters will skew the traditional stats. I also think Markakis has a terrific shot at the GG in RF after looking at the numbers. Sure Victorino deserves it because he's a CF playing a weaker position and has been great. But Nick has been a little flashier this year and is more cemented as a "Right Fielder". I wonder how the voting will go...

I agree with Cabrera, he's a no brainer. LAA could win 65 games this year even if they didn't have Trout. Cabrera is more valuable to his team, even if Trout leads in WAR.

[calmunderfire]

I ignore GG's. They do not even register on my radar. I cannot take them seriously in a world where Ripken has 2 and Jeter has a bajillion.

Until they start handing them out to the deserving players it's ignore.

[luismatos4prez]

Cabrera is more valuable to his team, even if Trout leads in WAR.

Here we go again.

With that line of thinking, if the Orioles make the playoffs by one game over the Tigers, then you'd have to concede that Nate McLouth was a more valuable player than Cabrera.

I take the "Most Valuable" line literally. The player who provided the most value. That's Mike Trout. Cabrera is a better hitter and plays on a better team. But he isn't a better baseball player.

[waroriole]

Here we go again.

With that line of thinking, if the Orioles make the playoffs by one game over the Tigers, then you'd have to concede that Nate McLouth was a more valuable player than Cabrera.

I take the "Most Valuable" line literally. The player who provided the most value. That's Mike Trout. Cabrera is a better hitter and plays on a better team. But he isn't a better baseball player.

Cabrera and Trout both have 6.1 rWAR. Gomez (MIL) is at 6.4, so he should get it over McCutchen by your logic.

I'd go:

AL MVP: Cabrera

NL MVP: McCutchen

AL CY: Scherzer

NL CY: Kershaw

[luismatos4prez]

Cabrera and Trout both have 6.1 rWAR. Gomez (MIL) is at 6.4, so he should get it over McCutchen by your logic.

I'd go:

AL MVP: Cabrera

NL MVP: McCutchen

AL CY: Scherzer

NL CY: Kershaw

You're the first person to mention WAR here. I didn't say anything about it

[OFFNY]

.

AL MVP: Matt Wieters

NL MVP: Matt Wieters

AL Cy Young: Matt Wieters

NL Cy Young: Matt Wieters

AL ROY: Matt Wieters

NL ROY: Matt Wieters

GG C: Matt Wieters; Matt Wieters

GG 1B: Matt Wieters; Matt Wieters

GG 2B: Matt Wieters; Matt Wieters

GG 3B: Matt Wieters; Matt Wieters

GG SS: Matt Wieters; Matt Wieters

GG LF: Matt Wieters; Matt Wieters

GG CF: Matt Wieters; Matt Wieters

GG RF: Matt Wieters; Matt Wieters

SS C: Matt Wieters; Matt Wieters

SS 1B: Matt Wieters; Matt Wieters

SS 2B: Matt Wieters; Matt Wieters

SS 3B: Matt Wieters; Matt Wieters

SS SS: Matt Wieters; Matt Wieters

SS LF: Matt Wieters; Matt Wieters

SS CF: Matt Wieters; Matt Wieters

SS RF: Matt Wieters; Matt Wieters

SS DH: Matt Wieters

Nobel Peace Prize: Matt Wieters

Most Influential Person Alive: Matt Wieters

Reason For Living: Matt Wieters

[waroriole]

You're the first person to mention WAR here. I didn't say anything about it

Then what is your criteria for judging value?

[luismatos4prez]

Then what is your criteria for judging value?

I individually look at each category and then make a judgement.

For hitting, I look at wRC+. For fielding I look at DRS and UZR over the last 3 years. For baserunning, I look at Fangraphs' and BBRef's advanced statistics. Then I consider other stuff like if their BABIP is way too high, their HR/FB rate is unsustainable, injury problems, position, etc.

Trout is a very good defender at LF and CF, the 2nd best hitter in baseball, and a fantastic baserunner.

Cabrera is a miserable defender at 3B, the best hitter in baseball, and a slightly below average baserunner.

Not even a difficult decision for me.

[waroriole]

I individually look at each category and then make a judgement.

For hitting, I look at wRC+. For fielding I look at DRS and UZR over the last 3 years. For baserunning, I look at Fangraphs' and BBRef's advanced statistics. Then I consider other stuff like if their BABIP is way too high, their HR/FB rate is unsustainable, injury problems, position, etc.

Trout is a very good defender at LF and CF, the 2nd best hitter in baseball, and a fantastic baserunner.

Cabrera is a miserable defender at 3B, the best hitter in baseball, and a slightly below average baserunner.

Not even a difficult decision for me.

Looking at fielding over 3 years doesn't make sense if we're talking about 2013 MVP. What does last year's fielding have to do with who is a better player this year? This year, Trout has a -7 UZR/150 in CF. His dWAR (from BR) is -1.4 this year. Cabrera plays a poor 3B, but I think an argument can be made that the difference in their bats outweighs the difference in their baserunning and fielding.

As far as hitting metrics go, Cabrera really outpaces everyone else. His wRC+ is 202, compared to 179 for Davis and Trout. His wOBA is .470, compared to .437 for Davis and .427 for Trout. Really, Davis is the 2nd best hitter this season, and Trout would be 3rd.

Considering whether their peripherals are too high seems a bit silly to me. You're chiding others for looking at this subjectively, yet you're assigning weight to things that nobody can explain. That's the kind of thing that makes an MVP season. Just because Davis has a higher than average HR/FB rate doesn't mean that he has been less valuable to the Orioles. It means he might not be as valuable going forward if those rates level out, but we're talking about past performance in the MVP race, not predicting future performance.

What weight are you assigning hitting, fielding and base running. That is something that could be subjective.

[luismatos4prez]

Looking at fielding over 3 years doesn't make sense if we're talking about 2013 MVP. What does last year's fielding have to do with who is a better player this year? This year, Trout has a -7 UZR/150 in CF. His dWAR (from BR) is -1.4 this year. Cabrera plays a poor 3B, but I think an argument can be made that the difference in their bats outweighs the difference in their baserunning and fielding.

As far as hitting metrics go, Cabrera really outpaces everyone else. His wRC+ is 202, compared to 179 for Davis and Trout. His wOBA is .470, compared to .437 for Davis and .427 for Trout. Really, Davis is the 2nd best hitter this season, and Trout would be 3rd.

Considering whether their peripherals are too high seems a bit silly to me. You're chiding others for looking at this subjectively, yet you're assigning weight to things that nobody can explain. That's the kind of thing that makes an MVP season. Just because Davis has a higher than average HR/FB rate doesn't mean that he has been less valuable to the Orioles. It means he might not be as valuable going forward if those rates level out, but we're talking about past performance in the MVP race, not predicting future performance.

What weight are you assigning hitting, fielding and base running. That is something that could be subjective.

Every single writer that votes on the awards will be giving subjective judgements.

And UZR and DRS can be a bit unreliable in a 1 year sample. The larger the sample size, the better your ability to judge their defense is. Overall, Trout has shown above average defense in LF and CF over his young career. 7.7 UZR/150 in LF (-5 DRS) and 6.0 UZR/150 in CF (+15 DRS). If there's an injury or the player is old, then a one year decline in defense might raise my eyebrows. Overall, the numbers suggest that he's a great defender in CF but more ordinary in LF.

You're right about the peripherals of course in this context. It's not a big consideration for MVP arguments. More for when I'm generally trying to get a sense of how good a player is.

I'm not chiding others for making subjective judgements. There will always be disagreements when analyzing and judging players. I'm disagreeing with the fundamental logic that people use when they say "Well his team is going to the playoffs". It's a very weak argument, in my opinion.

[Malike]

Every single writer that votes on the awards will be giving subjective judgements.

And UZR and DRS can be a bit unreliable in a 1 year sample. The larger the sample size, the better your ability to judge their defense is. Overall, Trout has shown above average defense in LF and CF over his young career. 7.7 UZR/150 in LF (-5 DRS) and 6.0 UZR/150 in CF (+15 DRS). If there's an injury or the player is old, then a one year decline in defense might raise my eyebrows. Overall, the numbers suggest that he's a great defender in CF but more ordinary in LF.

You're right about the peripherals of course in this context. It's not a big consideration for MVP arguments. More for when I'm generally trying to get a sense of how good a player is.

I'm not chiding others for making subjective judgements. There will always be disagreements when analyzing and judging players. I'm disagreeing with the fundamental logic that people use when they say "Well his team is going to the playoffs". It's a very weak argument, in my opinion.

I never said "his team is going to the playoffs". I'm saying that Cabrera is the MOST VALUABLE PLAYER in the league. Period. In fact, Trout has been less valuable on defense this season then Cabrera has. Cabrera is by far a superior hitter. Trout has a lot of his offensive WAR tied up in steals and baserunning, I suspect. Now, if you want to award it to Trout because he was slighted last year, then that's your thing. Cabrera is the MVP of the league.

[Malike]

Looking at fielding over 3 years doesn't make sense if we're talking about 2013 MVP. What does last year's fielding have to do with who is a better player this year? This year, Trout has a -7 UZR/150 in CF. His dWAR (from BR) is -1.4 this year. Cabrera plays a poor 3B, but I think an argument can be made that the difference in their bats outweighs the difference in their baserunning and fielding.

As far as hitting metrics go, Cabrera really outpaces everyone else. His wRC+ is 202, compared to 179 for Davis and Trout. His wOBA is .470, compared to .437 for Davis and .427 for Trout. Really, Davis is the 2nd best hitter this season, and Trout would be 3rd.

Considering whether their peripherals are too high seems a bit silly to me. You're chiding others for looking at this subjectively, yet you're assigning weight to things that nobody can explain. That's the kind of thing that makes an MVP season. Just because Davis has a higher than average HR/FB rate doesn't mean that he has been less valuable to the Orioles. It means he might not be as valuable going forward if those rates level out, but we're talking about past performance in the MVP race, not predicting future performance.

What weight are you assigning hitting, fielding and base running. That is something that could be subjective.

Excellent post, just excellent.