What is the likely fate of the the three longest tenured Orioles for next season?

[EagleOriole]

He does not have "starter stuff" either. He is basically has one pitch, a sinker/fastball with great movement that he can locate when he is on. I have a hard time seeing how he could make it multiple times through a batting order.

Not true. He throws his two-seamer 47% of the time with a BAA of .307. Four-seamner 29% with a .227 BAA, curveball 12% fo the time with a .190 BAA and his change-up 12% of the time with a .235 BAA...probably relies on two-seamer because all relievers rely more on their "best" pitch. Really he could be a four pitch starting pitcher and if put into the rotation would probably use his secondary pitches much more.

[Redskins Rick]

Not true. He throws his two-seamer 47% of the time with a BAA of .307. Four-seamner 29% with a .227 BAA, curveball 12% fo the time with a .190 BAA and his change-up 12% of the time with a .235 BAA...probably relies on two-seamer because all relievers rely more on their "best" pitch. Really he could be a four pitch starting pitcher and if put into the rotation would probably use his secondary pitches much more.

From wiki:

Norris throws five pitches, although against right-handers he uses only his four-seam fastball (91–94 mph) and slider (83–87). Against lefties, he adds a changeup (85–87). Especially against righties, the slider is his favorite two-strike pitch. It also carries a whiff rate of 38%. Norris also throws a sinker and a curveball.

[EagleOriole]

Pretty damn good shouldn't be worth 8 million + for a team with a 100 million-ish budget.

I realize we are going to have a lot of players who will earn raises in arbitration. Also, we should pay Nate McLouth and lock him up in LF. Here are the contracts coming off the books this year:

Roberts $10 million

Hammel $6.75 million

Feldman $6 million

Wada $4.2 million

Betemit $1.75 million

Casilla $1.9 million

That is $30 million of the $92 million payroll for this year that will be off the books for next year. I think they can give JJ $8 million to be a pretty damn good closer and still make huge strides to improve this team in the off-season.

[EagleOriole]

From wiki:

Norris throws five pitches, although against right-handers he uses only his four-seam fastball (91–94 mph) and slider (83–87). Against lefties, he adds a changeup (85–87). Especially against righties, the slider is his favorite two-strike pitch. It also carries a whiff rate of 38%. Norris also throws a sinker and a curveball.

Wait, confused are we talking Norris or JJ. Either could be damn good closers or back end of the rotation innings eaters if you ask me.

[Redskins Rick]

I realize we are going to have a lot of players who will earn raises in arbitration. Also, we should pay Nate McLouth and lock him up in LF. Here are the contracts coming off the books this year:

Roberts $10 million

Hammel $6.75 million

Feldman $6 million

Wada $4.2 million

Betemit $1.75 million

Casilla $1.9 million

That is $30 million of the $92 million payroll for this year that will be off the books for next year. I think they can give JJ $8 million to be a pretty damn good closer and still make huge strides to improve this team in the off-season.

Nice post, and I agree, bring JJ back as the closer.

Maybe Wada and Betemit, if they have very good Septembers.

[Crazysilver03]

I realize we are going to have a lot of players who will earn raises in arbitration. Also, we should pay Nate McLouth and lock him up in LF. Here are the contracts coming off the books this year:

Roberts $10 million

Hammel $6.75 million

Feldman $6 million

Wada $4.2 million

Betemit $1.75 million

Casilla $1.9 million

That is $30 million of the $92 million payroll for this year that will be off the books for next year. I think they can give JJ $8 million to be a pretty damn good closer and still make huge strides to improve this team in the off-season.

We aren't paying $6M for Feldman, it is closer to $2M. Plus .5M for KRod. So we are only losing $27M. But most of that will go into arbitration raises.

[Babypowder]

I don't know how a budget conscious team can pay a relief pitcher 10ish million dollars. I certainly wouldn't advocate it, especially not for one who is only pretty good. Jim Johnson is the 83rd most valuable reliever in baseball this year by bWAR.

[Redskins Rick]

I don't know how a budget conscious team can pay a relief pitcher 10ish million dollars. I certainly wouldn't advocate it, especially not for one who is only pretty good. Jim Johnson is the 83rd most valuable reliever in baseball this year by bWAR.

How can you call this team budget conscious, payroll was 92 million, pushing close to 100 million?

Are they Boston or the Yankees and unlimited spending, nope, thank God, but even the Yankees are not spending unlimited dollars.

They are fall from the lowest paid team in MLB, too.

Fans are coming to the game, parking lots are pretty full, TV money is coming in.

[Crazysilver03]

How can you call this team budget conscious, payroll was 92 million, pushing close to 100 million?

Are they Boston or the Yankees and unlimited spending, nope, thank God, but even the Yankees are not spending unlimited dollars.

They are fall from the lowest paid team in MLB, too.

Fans are coming to the game, parking lots are pretty full, TV money is coming in.

This is a team that couldn't add much salary at this year or last year's trade deadline. It is a team that is willing to give up a more significant piece so the other team absorbs more salary. And it has held relatively firm at $95M. It is on the low end of MLB payrolls.

[Redskins Rick]

This is a team that couldn't add much salary at this year or last year's trade deadline. It is a team that is willing to give up a more significant piece so the other team absorbs more salary. And it has held relatively firm at $95M. It is on the low end of MLB payrolls.

15 teams are under them in payroll.

So, no, I dont buy that argument that they are on the low end of the payroll. Dead in the middle.

http://deadspin.com/2013-payrolls-and-salaries-for-every-mlb-team-462765594

[Crazysilver03]

15 teams are under them in payroll.

So, no, I dont buy that argument that they are on the low end of the payroll. Dead in the middle.

http://deadspin.com/2013-payrolls-and-salaries-for-every-mlb-team-462765594

Ok. So you are going to ignore the other things I listed in my post?

[Crazysilver03]

15 teams are under them in payroll.

So, no, I dont buy that argument that they are on the low end of the payroll. Dead in the middle.

http://deadspin.com/2013-payrolls-and-salaries-for-every-mlb-team-462765594

15-20 is a big clump that is relatively interchangeable. There is a huge jump from #15 to #14 though.

[EagleOriole]

We aren't paying $6M for Feldman, it is closer to $2M. Plus .5M for KRod. So we are only losing $27M. But most of that will go into arbitration raises.

The payroll is at $92 million this year, would it be realistic that it will be $100 million next year? That is 35 million to spend on arbitration raises and free agents...lot of money there.

[wildcard]

2013 and 2014 are the O's best chance to win the AL East and the World Series. By 2015 the Yankees will have reloaded with a vengeance. You think the Red Sox reload fast? The Yankees could spend 250M to get back to the top in 2015.

With that in mind, I think the O's hold on to Jim Johnson in 2014 and probably Markakis. Roberts is likely gone.

The O's will have 27M from players let go plus some part of 25M from the national TV contract. That could see the O's spend 110M in payroll for 2014 but that will not move them up much in the team salary rankings because everyone gets 25M more. How much of the 25M the O's spend on salaries is unknown.

Here are the players that will probably not be back:

10M Roberts

6.75M Hammel

3M Feldman (He was acquired in early July which means half his 6M salary)]

1.75M Betemit

1.7M Casilla

1.1M Jurrjens

1.058M Garcia

1M Reimold

1M KRod

Total 27.358M

Notice that I am not including Wada. If he comes to the majors soon and pitches well the O's could pick up his 5M option. The O's will need at least 7 starters for 2014 and they have Tillman, Chen, Gonzo, and Norris. Gausman is another option and a healthy Wada may be worth 5M. It is yet to be determine,

The O's current payroll in about 96M after spending 5M mid season for Feldman (3M), Noriis (1M) and KRod (1M).

[Crazysilver03]

The payroll is at $92 million this year, would it be realistic that it will be $100 million next year? That is 35 million to spend on arbitration raises and free agents...lot of money there.

Payroll is closer to $96M with mid-season acquisitions. There will be significant arbitration raises this season. That $35M will go fast.