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Will Jim Johnson be non-tendered?

Barnaby Graves

Will Jim Johnson be non-tendered?  

77 members have voted

  1. 1. Will Jim Johnson be non-tendered?

    • Yes
    • No

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I think he'll be tendered a contract. Some of the assumptions about what the O's would have to pay him in his final year of arbitration eligibility are off base in my opinion. He won't take a pay cut from the $6.5 mm he's getting now, but he's not in line for a big raise after blowing 9 saves, either.

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Why? You want to pay more than $6.5 million for a reliever's worth of innings at an xFIP of 3.80?

It wouldn't have been an interesting question a month ago, so I don't think a few blown saves makes it an interesting question now.

If the stupid save stat is the basis of his salary then it's only fair blown saves should be taken into account.

I think he will be nontendered but ultimately resigned for a lower salary.

Maybe. Once you're on the market who knows where you could go.

He's clearly worth something but I think he could get non-tendered and then a relatively desperate team will overpay for him to close.

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He's making $6.5 LARGE this year. In arbitration this winter we'd offer 7.5 ... Kind of a lowball raise. JJ's agent will ask for 9+ ?

And THAT'S why he will be non-tendered. Even if you had perfect foresight that 2014 JJ would be EXACTLY like 2012 JJ... That WAY WAY WAY too much for any reliever. Even Mariano Rivera.

The only caveat, the only way they would consider that much money is if they definitely wanted him to start again. And that's a possibility. But then you'd be taking a huge risk on a still very expensive contract.

I love JJ. And still have confidence that he'll get it back together in time to help us down the stretch. But after this year, there's just no logical way we can bring him back.

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He never was a particularly good pitcher, as a starter OR reliever. He put on a magical run with us in 2012, where a great defense, team-wide momentum, and the deception of his sinker were working in tandem to give him an edge that lasted through almost all of the season. The book's out on Jim now; he never has been a strikeout guy, so all you have to do to beat him is "hit it where they ain't". Opposing hitters are seeing that sinker very well this year, even when it sinks.

Other than his run in 2012, he's just been an unremarkable pitcher and is not worth his current salary even if he repeated last year's performance. The Yankees front office could care less about a poorly-spent $6.5 million (it doesn't hold a candle to the amount they wasted on Aroid and others), but to the Orioles, that's a fortune that we could spend better elsewhere. Every penny we throw away is money we aren't putting into promising young players or mid-season FA deals to close off our weaknesses.

Team always says they're strapped for cash, but gee, maybe if they didn't put out for replacement-level players commanding MVP salaries, maybe they'd find some available funds on the balance sheet.

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