Super Stat Sticky: Get Your Learn On!

[DrungoHazewood]

We've been talking a lot about reliever metrics lately, so coincidentally BP has a good article on their reliever tools up. Here's a little snippet about WXRL:

One reliever statistic which you might be familiar with because it's used extensively on this site is WXRL. WXRL is a metric developed by Keith Woolner which is based on a Win Expectation framework. Win Expectation has its own statistical report (the Win Expectancy Matrix), and is a pretty complicated topic, so I'll give you a bare-bones, no-math explanation. Win Expectation breaks down each game situation—inning, score, number of outs, number of runners on base, and which bases they're on—that occurs in the major leagues, all to measure how the transition from one situation to another alters a team's chance of winning the game. So, within this framework, a pitcher who enters a game in a classic "save situation"—ninth inning, three-run lead, bases empty—increases his team's win expectancy if he makes it through the ninth without giving up the lead, albeit by a small amount, since the chances of victory with a three-run lead were pretty good to begin with. If the pitcher comes into the ninth with a one-run lead, no outs, and two men on, and gets out of the jam, his contribution to the team's win expectancy is considerably greater.

In WXRL the raw change in Win Expectation (the "WX" in WXRL) from the reliever's entrance to his departure is adjusted for the replacement level (the "R" in WXRL) and for strength of the opposing lineup (the "L"). Here are the current WXRL leaders:

Pitcher           W   L  SV  BS  IP     RA+    WXRL    LEVTakashi Saito     1   0  16   0  24.0   3.07   2.904   1.86Francisco Cordero 0   0  21   0  23.1   2.11   2.702   1.49Al Reyes          1   0  14   0  25.2   2.21   2.627   1.73Rafael Soriano    1   0   5   0  25.0   1.85   2.600   1.53Scott Linebrink   1   1   1   1  25.2   2.14   2.268   2.23

The qualities of WXRL to keep in mind:

* WXRL is a counting stat, measured in wins.

* All WXRL values are above replacement level—any below replacement-level performances have negative values.

* WXRL accounts for inherited and bequeathed runners.

* Leverage matters. A reliever who comes into high-leverage situations will accumulate more WXRL than a player who pitches just as well in garbage time.

* WXRL can be found in the Relievers Expected Wins Added Report, or in the Pitcher Season, Pitcher Team Year, or Team Pitching custom reports.

[Baltimoron]

A great run through of the current state of fielding metrics as well as a explanation of the fielding info available at THT.

Link

[Baltimoron]

A great primer for MLB player rules, covering topics like options, free agency, waivers, posting of Japanese players, minor league drafts and trades shows up

in these parts.

A well thought out and complete reference for a wide array of baseball statistics and statistical databases out together by Tom Tango can be found in this direction.

[now]

Cleaning out my files, I noticed the following (posted by Drungo I will guess) about WARP, which I don't see listed here, though he calls it one of the best comprehensive stats...

Prospectus has WARP numbers on all their player pages. WARP1 is adjusted for this season's context, WARP2 is adjusted to an all-time context, and WARP3 also adjusts for playing time so it's a way to project out over a full season.

Should we have an entry for WARP added to the main list?

[os1971]

MGL's UZR from 2003 to 2007 (yes 2007 through May has been done).

here

Ok Tejada is listed as a minus 41 runs per 150. Even I don't think hes that bad. Am I reading it right?

[Baltimoron]

Ok Tejada is listed as a minus 41 runs per 150. Even I don't think hes that bad. Am I reading it right?

I don't think so

Tejada, Miguel tejam001 6 1860 -12 3 -2 -9 708 -2

-2 is Tejada's per 150 games average from 2003 through the first half of 07.

[Migrant Redbird]

Unfortunately, Baseball Info Solutions decided not to release the +/- fielding system they published in The Fielding Bible last year. So no Fielding Bible.

At least they're now saying that they will publish an updated version in 2009.

When I bought the Bill James Handbook for 2008, which was supposed to have all the stats from the 2007 season, I thought it was going to give all the +/- ratings for the year too. Nope! It only provides the same leaders and trailers information which is already posted on The Fielding Bible website for free! In my view, the handbook provides very little value and the detailed tables are hard to use and read (fine print). Most of the information is available on the internet free and much of it is even sortable. I am really disappointed with the handbook and won't be buying any more of them from Bill James. 20 or 30 years ago, it would have been a fantastic resource, but now it's an anachronism.

[Camden_yardbird]

Does ZIP's or PECOTA account for home ballpark?

[DrungoHazewood]

Does ZIP's or PECOTA account for home ballpark?

I would imagine ZIPs does, and PECOTA accounts for all kinds of things from league offensive levels, home park, age, physical attributes, etc, etc.

[Baltimoron]

Tom Tango has a wiki page here.

[The Rick]

Thank you for this. I've been asking for this all off-season. Thanks for all the work.

Now maybe I won't be such an idiot and win an argument here and there

[Migrant Redbird]

I've gotten involved in a knock down, drag out online argument with another Cardinals fan over RPA (Runs per Plate Appearance). This is not the same as the RPA which Mike Gimbel trademarked in an article posted at The Think Factory, which stands for Run Production Average. It's what Tom Tango defines as Runs Produced (RP=R+RBI-HR) and I'm having difficulty following the TangoTiger explanation why subtracting home runs makes it a more valid stat for comparing the value of a hitter.

I'm assuming there have been a lot more discussions of this on the internet, but I've not been able to find any and would appreciate any links to such discussions, or thoughts one way or the other on the issue.

[BaltimoreTerp]

I've gotten involved in a knock down, drag out online argument with another Cardinals fan over RPA (Runs per Plate Appearance). This is not the same as the RPA which Mike Gimbel trademarked in an article posted at The Think Factory, which stands for Run Production Average. It's what Tom Tango defines as Runs Produced (RP=R+RBI-HR) and I'm having difficulty following the TangoTiger explanation why subtracting home runs makes it a more valid stat for comparing the value of a hitter.

I'm assuming there have been a lot more discussions of this on the internet, but I've not been able to find any and would appreciate any links to such discussions, or thoughts one way or the other on the issue.

Just looking at that, it seems that since a home run counts as both an RBI and a run scored, it shouldn't be counted twice in that system.

[Migrant Redbird]

Just looking at that, it seems that since a home run counts as both an RBI and a run scored, it shouldn't be counted twice in that system.

But every other run is counted twice -- once as a run scored and once as a run driven in. Why should the run scored by the batter who hits the HR be devalued by 50 percent compared to all other runs scored? If anything, it should be valued more than other runs because it gets scored independently of what any other hitter in the lineup does.

That the HR shouldn't be counted twice is a fallacy. If it should only be counted once, then all other runs scored and runs batted in should be divided by two as well.

Tango's argument doesn't hinge on the HR being counted twice. He contends that subtracting the home runs yields values for RP which correlate more closely with the values produced by the Runs Created formula. To me, that's a bogus argument; how do we know that the RC formula itself is valid?

[DrungoHazewood]

...how do we know that the RC formula itself is valid?

Because on a wide variety of scales and contexts runs created is very close to runs actually scored. On a game level, team level, season level... whatever, you figure out runs created from other events and components and it's going to be close to actual runs scored.