BP Playoff Odds Snapshot Thread

[Frobby]

I'm done updating this thread in detail. BP says 100% and I can't disagree after tonight. And I think we've now killed any last Yankee wildcard hopes, too.

[scOtt]

I'm done updating this thread in detail. BP says 100% and I can't disagree after tonight. And I think we've now killed any last Yankee wildcard hopes, too.

TB killing the Blow Jays' chances too.

[Frobby]

I figure it's time to dust off this thread.

Through 8/9/15

Team/Current Record/Projected Record*/Playoff Odds/Division Odds

NYY 61-49 88-74 88.9% 52.5%

TOR 61-52 88-74 64.9% 41.6%

BAL 56-54 81-81 19.9% 03.3%

TBR 56-56 81-81 20.3% 02.6%

BOS 50-6274-88 00.4% 00.1%

KCR 66-44 93-69 99.6% 99.1%

DET 54-57 78-84 05.2% 00.3%

CLE 51-59 78-84 04.9% 00.4%

MIN 55-56 78-84 03.8% 00.1%

CWS 51-58 76-86 01.3% 00.1%

HOU 61-52 87-75 83.8% 53.7%

LAA 59-51 86-76 68.6% 38.1%

TEX 55-55 80-82 14.6% 03.5%

SEA 52-60 77-85 02.6% 00.4%

OAK 51-62 76-86 01.2% 00.2%

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

Still basically a one in five chance for us. I plan to update this weekly to see how we progress from here.

[Barnaby Graves]

20% seems generous at this point.

[Tony-OH]

I figure it's time to dust off this thread.

Through 8/9/15

Team/Current Record/Projected Record*/Playoff Odds/Division Odds

NYY 61-49 88-74 88.9% 52.5%

TOR 61-52 88-74 64.9% 41.6%

BAL 56-54 81-81 19.9% 03.3%

TBR 56-56 81-81 20.3% 02.6%

BOS 50-6274-88 00.4% 00.1%

KCR 66-44 93-69 99.6% 99.1%

DET 54-57 78-84 05.2% 00.3%

CLE 51-59 78-84 04.9% 00.4%

MIN 55-56 78-84 03.8% 00.1%

CWS 51-58 76-86 01.3% 00.1%

HOU 61-52 87-75 83.8% 53.7%

LAA 59-51 86-76 68.6% 38.1%

TEX 55-55 80-82 14.6% 03.5%

SEA 52-60 77-85 02.6% 00.4%

OAK 51-62 76-86 01.2% 00.2%

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

Still basically a one in five chance for us. I plan to update this weekly to see how we progress from here.

Or we can look at this we, the Orioles have a 20% chance of a one-game wild card playoff appearance. Yep, definitely worth sending away your top upper level healthy starting pitching prospect for those odds.

[Redskins Rick]

The Orioles have nearly the same identical record as the Nationals do.

Just the Yankees are playing better than the Mets are.

[Frobby]

Or we can look at this we, the Orioles have a 20% chance of a one-game wild card playoff appearance. Yep, definitely worth sending away your top upper level healthy starting pitching prospect for those odds.

How'd the Royals do last year with their one-game wild card appearance? I was against the Davies trade, but I'd still be very happy to get a wild card berth if one comes our way. If nothing else, it would mean exciting games all through the end of the season.

[hoosiers]

Or we can look at this we, the Orioles have a 20% chance of a one-game wild card playoff appearance. Yep, definitely worth sending away your top upper level healthy starting pitching prospect for those odds.

Tony, did you like prior deadline moves by DD (EdRod-Miller, Jake-Feldman, first pick/Hader/Delmonico for Norris) or has your opinion of any of them changed in retrospect? You seem disappointed in the Davies trade, but by almost all accounts, Davies is the least we've given up in trade among these deadline deals.

[hoosiers]

20% seems generous at this point.

I think the 20% is too low. We are right there with two other wild card teams. These odds are skewed because those other teams have legitimate chances at winning their divisions.

[ArtVanDelay]

The Orioles have nearly the same identical record as the Nationals do.

Just the Yankees are playing better than the Mets are.

You mean the Mets are playing better than the Yankees, right?

[Frobby]

Just to show how volatile these things are, our win yesterday on a day when NY and Toronto were idle and the Angels lost improved our playoff odds from 19.9% to 25.4%.

[scOtt]

Just to show how volatile these things are, our win yesterday on a day when NY and Toronto were idle and the Angels lost improved our playoff odds from 19.9% to 25.4%.

So you're telling me there's a chance.

[Machado13]

These things are always wrong until the final weekend and then it's like "see! We have the best predictor analytics database!"

Great job "experts" you correctly predicted playoff picture 1 week before the playoffs started lol

[scOtt]

26.6% now. We are the second WC now.

[Frobby]

Last week, the Royals went 5-2, the Orioles, Blue Jays, White Sox and Rangers went 4-2, the Twins and Astros went 3-2, the Yankees, Indians and Mariners went 3-3, the Rays and Red Sox went 2-3, the Tigers went 2-4, the Angels went 1-6 and the A's went 0-6. The A's chances dropped to zero (per BP) and so I've removed them from the list.

Through 8/16/15

Team/Current Record/Projected Record/Playoff Odds/Division Odds

NYY 64-52 89-73 91.2% 47.9%

TOR 65-54 89-73 91.4% 46.2%

BAL 60-56 83-79 33.0% 04.3%

TBR 58-59 81-81 16.1% 01.5%

BOS 52-65 73-89 00.1% 00.0%

KCR 71-46 94-68 100.0% 99.8%

MIN 59-58 79-83 07.1% 00.0%

DET 56-61 78-84 04.0% 00.1%

CWS 55-60 77-85 02.9% 00.0%

CLE 54-62 78-84 04.1% 00.1%

HOU 64-54 88-74 88.1% 76.1%

LAA 60-57 83-79 37.9% 15.6%

TEX 59-57 81-81 21.8% 07.6%

SEA 55-63 77-85 02.2% 00.6%

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/odds/

Orioles' snapshot:

8/09: 56-54 81-81 19.9% 03.3%

8/16: 60-56 83-79 33.0% 04.3% (4-2)

Nice progress, largely due to the Angels' horrible week.