Kevin Gausman: Starter or reliever?

[MSBird]

Down the stretch, I would like to see Gausman stay in the pen and salvage any rough starts by our starters as a long reliever. I think 2 or 3 shutdown innings in relief will be the role the team needs him the most for and will give him some confidence when fighting for a rotation spot in ST. He's a valuable asset to have as he can surely give us a spot start or two, if needed.

[CaptainRedbeard]

Pitchers who figure it out are the exception to the rule, but are the real good ones as well. Unlike hitters who drastically improve after getting called up pitchers do not. FIP remains basically flat once a pitcher debuts in the MLB.

Gausman has a 3.70 xFIP in his 5 starts this year. Seems like starter material to me! Or do you think his true talent level would indicate a 25% HR/FB rate?

Gausman has demonstrated a great ability to keep the ball in the strike zone. I think that is an extremely valuable skill that is very hard to teach and develop. It involves the ability to repeat your mechanics and keep the ball on a downward plane, both of which Gausman does exceptionally well for a pitcher his age and experience level.

What Gausman hasn't developed yet (or at least displayed as a starter at the major league level) is the ability to command the ball within the strike zone well. That's why he's given up a lot of homers and hasn't gotten the swinging strikes that you would expect from a guy with two clear plus to plus-plus pitches. That ability can be developed, and I think it will in Gausman's case.

Miguel Gonzalez is really struggling right now. He just doesn't look sharp at all, Buck seems to have lost confidence in him indicated by skipping his turn, and the results have generally not been there. Gausman has lots of innings left to give on the season and has been very effective in 6 of 7 appearances since his first start at AAA since getting sent down. We have both Britton and TJ to pitch long relief. Even if Gausman can only go 3 or 4 innings, I'd be giving him the ball over Gonzalez in his next turn.

[calmunderfire]

Gausman has a 3.70 xFIP in his 5 starts this year. Seems like starter material to me! Or do you think his true talent level would indicate a 25% HR/FB rate?

Gausman has demonstrated a great ability to keep the ball in the strike zone. I think that is an extremely valuable skill that is very hard to teach and develop. It involves the ability to repeat your mechanics and keep the ball on a downward plane, both of which Gausman does exceptionally well for a pitcher his age and experience level.

What Gausman hasn't developed yet (or at least displayed as a starter at the major league level) is the ability to command the ball within the strike zone well. That's why he's given up a lot of homers and hasn't gotten the swinging strikes that you would expect from a guy with two clear plus to plus-plus pitches. That ability can be developed, and I think it will in Gausman's case.

Miguel Gonzalez is really struggling right now. He just doesn't look sharp at all, Buck seems to have lost confidence in him indicated by skipping his turn, and the results have generally not been there. Gausman has lots of innings left to give on the season and has been very effective in 6 of 7 appearances since his first start at AAA since getting sent down. We have both Britton and TJ to pitch long relief. Even if Gausman can only go 3 or 4 innings, I'd be giving him the ball over Gonzalez in his next turn.

Nobody has a 25% HR/FB rate. I'm sure that has a lot to do with not having a breaking pitch and constantly throwing fastballs down the middle of the plate.

[isestrex]

When did the Cards have a top 5 pick?

Not sure that makes much of a difference... in the end result, Gausman doesn't have any more upside than Adam Wainwright.

Are you saying this method by the Cardinals makes sense for "unknown" players but fails when applied to the "talented" arms?

EDIT: Also, Palmer, Flanagan, McGregor, Boddicker, D.Martinez and Storm Davis all started in the bullpen for a year before getting starts.

[Can_of_corn]

Not sure that makes much of a difference... in the end result, Gausman doesn't have any more upside than Adam Wainwright.

Are you saying this method by the Cardinals makes sense for "unknown" players but fails when applied to the "talented" arms?

No, I am saying that your responded to a poster who talked of moving a top 5 pick to the pen with a discussion about how the Cards have done such a thing.

Like it or not there are other factors in play when talking about very high draft picks.

[isestrex]

No, I am saying that your responded to a poster who talked of moving a top 5 pick to the pen with a discussion about how the Cards have done such a thing.

Like it or not there are other factors in play when talking about very high draft picks.

My evaluation (which could be inaccurate) of the preceding posts was that people were saying Gausman had "too much talent" to start in the pen simply because of his draft position. Hawgwash. If it was good enough for the guys I've already mentioned in various posts, then it's plenty good enough for Gausman.

If the concern is something related to contracts, ego, stigma... etc, then I suppose a feeble argument could be made that Gausman should avoid the bullpen for non-performance issues. However, I haven't seen any such concerns posted as of yet. Relating to his big league results, there can be little argument that an extended trip to the pen would hurt his development.

[CaptainRedbeard]

Nobody has a 25% HR/FB rate. I'm sure that has a lot to do with not having a breaking pitch and constantly throwing fastballs down the middle of the plate.

Yeah, that's exactly my point. If you use xFIP rather than FIP, which normalizes Gausman's absurd small-sample 25% HR/FB rate in his 5 starts, he actually has displayed solid peripherals as a starter.

Even if you think Gausman is going to give up homers on fly balls as absurdly frequently as Chris Tillman, who is 4th in the majors at 14.5% this year, his FIP would be around 4.25 in his first five starts. That's not a pitcher who is only restricted to work in relief.

There are starting pitchers in baseball who are very successful and only have two pitches. AJ Burnett, Justin Masterson, and Shelby Miller are all exclusively FB/CU pitchers. The key is that all 3 of those pitchers have two plus-plus pitches and are good at changing speeds, movement, and location on their fastballs. If Gausman can do the same, even without a good breaking pitch, he can be a starting pitcher.

[Can_of_corn]

My evaluation (which could be inaccurate) of the preceding posts was that people were saying Gausman had "too much talent" to start in the pen simply because of his draft position. Hawgwash. If it was good enough for the guys I've already mentioned in various posts, then it's plenty good enough for Gausman.

If the concern is something related to contracts, ego, stigma... etc, then I suppose a feeble argument could be made that Gausman should avoid the bullpen for non-performance issues. However, I haven't seen any such concerns posted as of yet. Relating to his big league results, there can be little argument that an extended trip to the pen would hurt his development.

The main thing he needs is a third pitch. What incentive would he have to master a third pitch when he is being used in one-two inning increments in the pen?

[isestrex]

The main thing he needs is a third pitch. What incentive would he have to master a third pitch when he is being used in one-two inning increments in the pen?

Of that, I have no answer. I would curious to see some research behind Wainwright or Lynn's arsenal both in the minors and in the pen as compared to what it is now. If the Cardinal's plan is to establish a 3rd pitch prior to bringing the pitcher to the MLB bullpen, then obviously Gausman can't apply here. But if they developed and worked on their 3rd pitch while in the pen...

[Redskins Rick]

If you can throw two pitches with the same exact motion and have 10+ MPH difference, than you too, can be a major league starter.

Helps to have a third and even fourth pitch for those nights, you are missing one of your pitches.

[PolishFalcon22]

The main thing he needs is a third pitch. What incentive would he have to master a third pitch when he is being used in one-two inning increments in the pen?

Could provide plenty of incentive. He may not want to be a reliever the rest of his career.

[Can_of_corn]

Could provide plenty of incentive. He may not want to be a reliever the rest of his career.

A lot of guys, when they move to the pen, shelf a pitch (Koji for instance). The idea being, you don't want to get beat with your third best pitch. That is a less then ideal environment to be adding a pitch.

Also, why should the Catcher call for it?

[OFFNY]

If you can throw two pitches with the same exact motion and have 10+ MPH difference, than you too, can be a major league starter.

Helps to have a third and even fourth pitch for those nights, you are missing one of your pitches.

I'll take it a step further.

I think that a pitcher can survive as a starter at the major league level WITH ONE PITCH, if he could consistently throw said pitch between 108 and 113 M.P.H., and do so for 7 or 8 innings.

[weams]

It would have been funny to watch you contort yourself around guys like Maddux or Palmer. When the O's called up Palmer he was coming off a season where he walked 130 in 129 innings in A ball. Clearly he was a failed prospect with no command or control and needed to be traded or dumped on whatever sucker would take him. Maddux had a 5+ ERA as a rookie, and was obviously a junkballer masquerading as a mid-level prospect.

If only life were a clear and obvious as you think it is...

Ah, to be young. Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay and Chris Carpenter come to mind. And to truly date myself, Randy Johnson and Sandy Koufax.

[Redskins Rick]

I'll take it a step further.

I think that a pitcher can survive as a starter at the major league level WITH ONE PITCH, if he could consistently throw said pitch between 108 and 113 M.P.H., and do so for 7 or 8 innings.

LOL

difference is, there are two pitch starters in the MLB, that can do the 10 MPH difference.

I believe Chapman still holds the record at hitting 105.