Revisiting Duquettes' second half moves

[Frobby]

hoosiers posted this in the BP Playoff Odds thread:

Acknowledging that the odds do not go back as far as the trade deadline, IMO, it is really difficult to look at these odds and reconcile them with the prospects and early draft pick we gave up for fairly mediocre players. Our September schedule was always going to be difficult. Sure, it's been close and we've had chances, but we had a competitive team BEFORE those trades were made and there would have been nothing wrong with playing out the string with the group that was doing fairly well as it was. Of course, there is still time for this team to go on a crazy good run to finish the season, but it is looking pretty bleak.

I've said this in a few threads and there will be time to discuss more in the offseason, but I think our GM showed a fundamental misunderstanding of our competitive position in making those trades (pretty much confirmed by the odds above) and we are a weaker organization because of it. IMO, it is one of the poorest series of moves made by an Os GM in many years.

I think this is a worthy topic that deserves its own thread. And I don't know that I agree with hoosiers. I assume we are basically talking about these four trades:

July 2: Feldman for Arrietta and Strop (O's were 2.5 games behind Boston and in 2nd wild card position)

July 23: Rodriguez for Delmonico (O's were 2.5 games behind Boston and .5 games out of second wild card position)

July 31: Norris for Hader, Hoes and Round A comp pick (O's were 5 games behind Tampa and in 2nd wild card position)

Aug. 30: Morse for Avery (O's were 7.5 games behind Boston and 4 games out of 2nd wild card position

First, I reject the idea that the Orioles should have been realistic about their chances. We were clearly in the thick of the division race at the time of the first two trades, and still lead for the second wild card at the time of the third. Admittedly, our odds were getting a bit long by the time of the Morse trade, but quite honestly, I just don't care one whit about losing Xavier Avery.

Second, I think all the trades were pretty fair, and served needs for the Orioles. Feldman has been a huge improvement over Arrieta, Garcia and whoever else we had as 5th starter, and has logged a lot of innings. The O's are 5-2 in the games Norris has started. We gave up a lot to get him, but we have him for 2 more years. My biggest reservation is losing Delmonico in the KRod deal, but he's been injury prone and is striking out a lot. As I said, Morse for Avery is a non-event in my book.

For me, these moves helped our competitive position, and the team's mediocre performance the last three months relates to players we already had who haven't done as well in the second half of the season as they did in the first half. That was far from perfectly foreseeable when these deals were made, and Duquette had an obligation to try to bolster a team that clearly was in contention.

[Redskins Rick]

hoosiers posted this in the BP Playoff Odds thread:

I think this is a worthy topic that deserves its own thread. And I don't know that I agree with hoosiers. I assume we are basically talking about these four trades:

July 2: Feldman for Arrietta and Strop (O's were 2.5 games behind Boston and in 2nd wild card position)

July 23: Rodriguez for Delmonico (O's were 2.5 games behind Boston and .5 games out of second wild card position)

July 31: Norris for Hader, Hoes and Round A comp pick (O's were 5 games behind Tampa and in 2nd wild card position)

Aug. 30: Morse for Avery (O's were 7.5 games behind Boston and 4 games out of 2nd wild card position

First, I reject the idea that the Orioles should have been realistic about their chances. We were clearly in the thick of the division race at the time of the first two trades, and still lead for the second wild card at the time of the third. Admittedly, our odds were getting a bit long by the time of the Morse trade, but quite honestly, I just don't care one whit about losing Xavier Avery.

Second, I think all the trades were pretty fair, and served needs for the Orioles. Feldman has been a huge improvement over Arrieta, Garcia and whoever else we had as 5th starter, and has logged a lot of innings. The O's are 5-2 in the games Norris has started. We gave up a lot to get him, but we have him for 2 more years. My biggest reservation is losing Delmonico in the KRod deal, but he's been injury prone and is striking out a lot. As I said, Morse for Avery is a non-event in my book.

For me, these moves helped our competitive position, and the team's mediocre performance the last three months relates to players we already had who haven't done as well in the second half of the season as they did in the first half. That was far from perfectly foreseeable when these deals were made, and Duquette had an obligation to try to bolster a team that clearly was in contention.

Nice analysis.

My thoughts is more important what DD didn't do, he didn't give up the farm.

[Frobby]

Nice analysis.

My thoughts is more important what DD didn't do, he didn't give up the farm.

Well, I think hoosiers, who follows the minors very closely, probably thinks very highly of the guys we gave up (and the comp pick). I like Hader, Hoes and Delmonico too, but they are not exactly the crown jewels. Delmonico is a guy without a defensive position who has yet to hit .250 in the low minors, Hader is very intriguing but has control issues, and Hoes is a guy with 4th OF upside (will have a solid OBP, but no power at all and his speed is just OK).

[eddie83]

This all goes back to some of the points I made before about DD and Buck being on the same page. I had no problem dealing for KRod but I do now because of the way Buck has used him. Same thing with Morse, why add the guy if he isn't going to play? The only trade that can really hurt us is giving up Delmonico. Norris is here for 2 more seasons and the other players needed a change of scenery.

[Tony-OH]

Nice analysis.

My thoughts is more important what DD didn't do, he didn't give up the farm.

Yep, the two players I would like to still have still are Hader and Delmonico, but both are a long way from the big leagues and neither are anywhere near a sure thing. Delmonico has taken a major step back this year after a hot start. He doesn't hit for average, struggles against lefties, his K's have risen, and has no defensive position. Hader is a guy no one wanted to give up but Houston would not give up Norris without him in the deal. AS Frobby pointed out, we have him for two more years so he wasn't a rental.

As for Feldman, I liked the deal when it happened and I still do. He may be a guy who likes it here and decides he wants to stick around for a few more years.

[Aristotelian]

I agree, they were mostly good moves that helped us. This season would have been a lot worse without Norris and Feldman, and without giving up any of our key prospects. Norris and Feldman did what we hoped/expected them to do, but not enough to overcome regression by Hammel, Chen, and the bullpen. Moreover, we get Norris for another year, which may be our last chance to contend for a while. I don't think there is anything more they could have done. They did what they could do within the realm of the possible, it just wasn't enough.

[Tony-OH]

This all goes back to some of the points I made before about DD and Buck being on the same page. I had no problem dealing for KRod but I do now because of the way Buck has used him. Same thing with Morse, why add the guy if he isn't going to play? The only trade that can really hurt us is giving up Delmonico. Norris is here for 2 more seasons and the other played needed a change of scenery.

Based on how Buck has used K-Rod and Morse, it does appear to be a possible issue here. With O'day out, he should be main 8th inning guy, not Guasman or Hunter.

[TouchemAll]

hoosiers posted this in the BP Playoff Odds thread:

I think this is a worthy topic that deserves its own thread. And I don't know that I agree with hoosiers. I assume we are basically talking about these four trades:

July 2: Feldman for Arrietta and Strop (O's were 2.5 games behind Boston and in 2nd wild card position)

July 23: Rodriguez for Delmonico (O's were 2.5 games behind Boston and .5 games out of second wild card position)

July 31: Norris for Hader, Hoes and Round A comp pick (O's were 5 games behind Tampa and in 2nd wild card position)

Aug. 30: Morse for Avery (O's were 7.5 games behind Boston and 4 games out of 2nd wild card position

First, I reject the idea that the Orioles should have been realistic about their chances. We were clearly in the thick of the division race at the time of the first two trades, and still lead for the second wild card at the time of the third. Admittedly, our odds were getting a bit long by the time of the Morse trade, but quite honestly, I just don't care one whit about losing Xavier Avery.

Second, I think all the trades were pretty fair, and served needs for the Orioles. Feldman has been a huge improvement over Arrieta, Garcia and whoever else we had as 5th starter, and has logged a lot of innings. The O's are 5-2 in the games Norris has started. We gave up a lot to get him, but we have him for 2 more years. My biggest reservation is losing Delmonico in the KRod deal, but he's been injury prone and is striking out a lot. As I said, Morse for Avery is a non-event in my book.

For me, these moves helped our competitive position, and the team's mediocre performance the last three months relates to players we already had who haven't done as well in the second half of the season as they did in the first half. That was far from perfectly foreseeable when these deals were made, and Duquette had an obligation to try to bolster a team that clearly was in contention.

:agree: The trades didn't bring down this team, but the present players have stubbed a BIG toe since the break and the pitching may have to take most of the heat.

[TouchemAll]

Based on how Buck has used K-Rod and Morse, it does appear to be a possible issue here. With O'day out, he should be main 8th inning guy, not Guasman or Hunter.

Yep the use of K-Rod is the one that's got me mystified. Morse not so much

[Redskins Rick]

Based on how Buck has used K-Rod and Morse, it does appear to be a possible issue here. With O'day out, he should be main 8th inning guy, not Guasman or Hunter.

Roch alluded to another reliever having injury and unavailable and the Birds are tight lipped.

Who do you think that might be?

[eddie83]

Based on how Buck has used K-Rod and Morse, it does appear to be a possible issue here. With O'day out, he should be main 8th inning guy, not Guasman or Hunter.

I still can't let go of Tuesday night. We win on Monday and need 6 outs to at worst split the series. The middle of the order is up for NY and its Gausman instead of KRod. Then Buck says postgame about his issues holding runners? Why is he here then? Sunday Morse pinch hits for McLouth the Sox bring a righty in, so that means Uruttia? There was talk he might get sent back to Sarasota before the end of the year for crying out loud. Buck used 2 unproven rookies instead of the players DD gave him for a run. What does it say about what Buck thinks about those guys?

[LookinUp]

Well, I think hoosiers, who follows the minors very closely, probably thinks very highly of the guys we gave up (and the comp pick). I like Hader, Hoes and Delmonico too, but they are not exactly the crown jewels. Delmonico is a guy without a defensive position who has yet to hit .250 in the low minors, Hader is very intriguing but has control issues, and Hoes is a guy with 4th OF upside (will have a solid OBP, but no power at all and his speed is just OK).

Personally, the trades don't bother me as much as the approach. I was hoping we'd deal high on Delmonico and Hader, so I don't mind losing them even a bit. I do wish we packaged more together to get a better player back, so I'm not sure DD maximized the return he could have gotten, but that's speculation. The only asset it hurts to lose was the comp pick, but we got ML service time for it.

The overall approach is more troublesome to me. I'm not sure whether to chalk this season up to too many injuries (Bundy, Wada, O'Day?, Reimold, Steve Johnson), poor coaching/managing or the failure of DD to spend more of his financial resources early in the season.

This goes back to a PA issue as much as anything, IMO. I think DD could have done more before the season (e.g., sign Joe Saunders), but he might not have had any flexibility to take on any salary at the end of the year. So, in the absence of an ability to load up before the season, we're left with a model where we can swap our failing or over rated prospects (IMO) for salary. I guess I just wish we could do both.

[Redskins Rick]

Yep, the two players I would like to still have still are Hader and Delmonico, but both are a long way from the big leagues and neither are anywhere near a sure thing. Delmonico has taken a major step back this year after a hot start. He doesn't hit for average, struggles against lefties, his K's have risen, and has no defensive position. Hader is a guy no one wanted to give up but Houston would not give up Norris without him in the deal. AS Frobby pointed out, we have him for two more years so he wasn't a rental.

As for Feldman, I liked the deal when it happened and I still do. He may be a guy who likes it here and decides he wants to stick around for a few more years.

Hoes, Hader and Delmonico are nice guys and decent prospects and at one time would have been the best in the farm system, nice to be in a position to have better prospects that we can hold onto.

[Frobby]

Hader is a guy no one wanted to give up but Houston would not give up Norris without him in the deal. AS Frobby pointed out, we have him for two more years so he wasn't a rental.

I think when we look back at this summer's moves, a lot will turn on whether Norris turns out to be a solid pitcher over the next two years. I'll be honest, I am not overly impressed with what I've seen of him. The O's have won 6 of the 8 starts he has made for us, and therefore the trade achieved its purpose so far, which is to help us win games. But, he seems to throw a lot of pitches, has some stamina issues and he is very vulnerable to LH batters and the HR ball. So I think we'll have to see how he produces in 2014-15 to know for sure if it was worth giving up Hader, Hoes and the comp pick.

[eddie83]

Yep the use of K-Rod is the one that's got me mystified. Morse not so much

If Betemit was healthy and productive it wouldn't bother me but Buck has taken at bats away from Morse with Uruttia, that's the part I don't get. Ride Morse out the entire month and hope he gets hot, if not why did you trade for him?