Revisiting Duquettes' second half moves

[Frobby]

If Betemit was healthy and productive it wouldn't bother me but Buck has taken at bats away from Morse with Uruttia, that's the part I don't get. Ride Morse out the entire month and hope he gets hot, if not why did you trade for him?

Just to have another RH bat available. Let's look at the facts: Morse was having a lousy year when we traded for him (.693 OPS for Seattle) and had been ice cold (.489 OPS since coming off the DL in late July). Buck has started him in 7 of 12 games since he got here, and he hasn't produced (.286 OPS). Meanwhile, we've got Valencia going bonkers, so why should Morse play any more than he has?

And people need to understand that we gave up Xavier Avery to get Morse. That's practically getting him for free. It's not like we gave up some prize prospect for Morse and then didn't play him. You can shake a tree and 100 Xavier Avery's fall out.

[El Gordo]

hoosiers posted this in the BP Playoff Odds thread:

I think this is a worthy topic that deserves its own thread. And I don't know that I agree with hoosiers. I assume we are basically talking about these four trades:

July 2: Feldman for Arrietta and Strop (O's were 2.5 games behind Boston and in 2nd wild card position)

July 23: Rodriguez for Delmonico (O's were 2.5 games behind Boston and .5 games out of second wild card position)

July 31: Norris for Hader, Hoes and Round A comp pick (O's were 5 games behind Tampa and in 2nd wild card position)

Aug. 30: Morse for Avery (O's were 7.5 games behind Boston and 4 games out of 2nd wild card position

First, I reject the idea that the Orioles should have been realistic about their chances. We were clearly in the thick of the division race at the time of the first two trades, and still lead for the second wild card at the time of the third. Admittedly, our odds were getting a bit long by the time of the Morse trade, but quite honestly, I just don't care one whit about losing Xavier Avery.

Second, I think all the trades were pretty fair, and served needs for the Orioles. Feldman has been a huge improvement over Arrieta, Garcia and whoever else we had as 5th starter, and has logged a lot of innings. The O's are 5-2 in the games Norris has started. We gave up a lot to get him, but we have him for 2 more years. My biggest reservation is losing Delmonico in the KRod deal, but he's been injury prone and is striking out a lot. As I said, Morse for Avery is a non-event in my book.

For me, these moves helped our competitive position, and the team's mediocre performance the last three months relates to players we already had who haven't done as well in the second half of the season as they did in the first half. That was far from perfectly foreseeable when these deals were made, and Duquette had an obligation to try to bolster a team that clearly was in contention.

When an argument is made that DD's decisions amount to a "fundamental miscalculation" my hyperbole alarm goes off and I am inclined to dismiss it out of hand. I regret losing Hader and Delmonico. But I would hardly call it a fundamental miscalculation.

[webbrick2010]

I'm amused that you can shake a tree and get 100 Xavier Avery's... I guess you can shake a different tree and get a few LJ Hoes

So who are our top 3 OF prospects that can step in next year and take over LF or become the 4th OF'er???

And please don't even mention Urrutia who is at most a one tool player (hit for average). He can't run can't field has a poor arm, and has zero power

but he'll probably be run up the flag as a possible replacement for McClouth next year

[El Gordo]

I think when we look back at this summer's moves, a lot will turn on whether Norris turns out to be a solid pitcher over the next two years. I'll be honest, I am not overly impressed with what I've seen of him. The O's have won 6 of the 8 starts he has made for us, and therefore the trade achieved its purpose so far, which is to help us win games. But, he seems to throw a lot of pitches, has some stamina issues and he is very vulnerable to LH batters and the HR ball. So I think we'll have to see how he produces in 2014-15 to know for sure if it was worth giving up Hader, Hoes and the comp pick.

This could describe many of our SP. We have Fly ball pitchers who give up a lot of HR and low OBP hitterss who hit a lot of HR. That seems to be the plan. :rolleyestf: Maybe it's cheaper that way.

[eddie83]

Just to have another RH bat available. Let's look at the facts: Morse was having a lousy year when we traded for him (.693 OPS for Seattle) and had been ice cold (.489 OPS since coming off the DL in late July). Buck has started him in 7 of 12 games since he got here, and he hasn't produced (.286 OPS). Meanwhile, we've got Valencia going bonkers, so why should Morse play any more than he has?

And people need to understand that we gave up Xavier Avery to get Morse. That's practically getting him for free. It's not like we gave up some prize prospect for Morse and then didn't play him. You can shake a tree and 100 Xavier Avery's fall out.

How many starts does Valencia have vs RHP? Zero since September. I am not worried about Avery. I don't get playing Uruttia and his 1 extra base bit and zero walks in front of Morse. I am talking at bats vs RHP here only. Valencia had nothing to do with Morse. Now maybe Danny will start tonight but Buck hasn't used him in that role so far.

[TonySoprano]

The O's have won 6 of the 8 starts he has made for us, and therefore the trade achieved its purpose so far, which is to help us win games.

In those 8 games, the Orioles trailed in 4 of them when he was pulled, and the O's came back to win 2 of those 4.

DATE	OPP	IP	ER	S	F1-Aug	HOU	6	2	5-2	6-36-Aug	SDP	6	1	2-1	4-111-Aug	SFG	5	2	1-2	10-217-Aug	COL	5.2	4	8-4	8-423-Aug	OAK	4.2	7	6-7	9-728-Aug	BOS	5.1	1	1-3	3-42-Sep	CLE	7	1	5-1	7-28-Sep	CHW	4.1	4	1-4	2-4

[Singleton]

I pretty strongly disagree with the post and its conclusion. I didn't like the trades at the time because I didn't think they significantly improved our club. I thought we had a flawed team that even with the additions was unlikely to make much noise even if we were fortunate enough to secure the 2nd wild card. Two of the three players we acquired were rentals and I wasn't that excited to have the third (Norris) on the team for 2 more years.

As it turned out, the players we received didn't improve us much and the team has faltered.

Frod has given up 8 runs in 18 innings which could hardly be viewed as signficant improvement. More than the numbers -- and this is my opinion -- he hasn't inspired confidence from the moment he put on the uniform. There's a reason Buck isn't using him in the 8th inning. And for these 18 innings of mediocrity we gave up our 2nd or 3rd best hitting prospect.

Frobby points out that we've mostly won when Bud Norris has pitched. But most of us are sophisticated enough to know that there's more to the story than who is standing on the mound for the win. Norris hasn't pitched very well for us. He's given up 23 runs in 44 innings and he's been lucky to be "that good." In those 44 innings he's given up 51 hits and 20 walks for a total of 71 baserunners. And for this we gave up a very promising arm, outfield depth (at worst) AND a fairly high draft pick (sandwich). Oh yea and his elbow hurts and many think he'd be better in the bullpen.

For those that think that Norris is great to have around, if we tried to trade him this offseason, do you think we could recoup our losses? The answer to me is a strong "no" which is pretty telling.

We all know that lots of prospects don't work out. Delmonico strikes out. Hader is young. Hoes might top out as a 4th outfielder. Who knows what the draft pick will turn into.

But each of these players (and the pick) had promise. Each of the 3 players may have been on our top 10 and given the way things have worked, the player we would have picked next year would probably be a top ten guy for us in '14. Each had a pretty decent chance of contributing to future Oriole teams. At worst we would be much better off having them in the system to package in a trade this offseason. Without this depth, we'll be pretty handcuffed to find ways to improve our team without further mortgaging our future.

Overall, I have been less than impressed with DD"s trades and I'm worried about what this offseason will bring.

[Frobby]

I'm amused that you can shake a tree and get 100 Xavier Avery's... I guess you can shake a different tree and get a few LJ Hoes

So who are our top 3 OF prospects that can step in next year and take over LF or become the 4th OF'er???

And please don't even mention Urrutia who is at most a one tool player (hit for average). He can't run can't field has a poor arm, and has zero power

but he'll probably be run up the flag as a possible replacement for McClouth next year

First of all, I like Hoes much better than Avery, and always have. Avery's MiL line is .261/.329/.356, while Hoes' is .286/.366/.380. Avery has better speed but it doesn't translate into him being a better defensive OF. Hoes takes better routes and has a better arm.

A MiL lifer like Jason Pridie is probably a more competent fill-in at the major league level than Avery. Trayvon Robinson could fit the bill as well as Avery, too. That not to say I want either one to be our 4th OF next year -- just that they could do it as well or better than Avery, who isn't very good IMO.

[sportsfan8703]

When an argument is made that DD's decisions amount to a "fundamental miscalculation" my hyperbole alarm goes off and I am inclined to dismiss it out of hand. I regret losing Hader and Delmonico. But I would hardly call it a fundamental miscalculation.

I totally agree. How was it a miscalculation when this team is still only 2 out of the playoffs and has given away so many games? We all say we just want competitive games in September and that's what we're getting. Without the Feldman and Norris trade this team might have finished under .500. That would have been a gigantic blow to the organizations momentum. We're going to have our 2nd consecutive winning season and still have a small chance at the playoffs. I still think this season was a success. All the experts said that we couldn't replicate our 1 run win magic and we couldn't but we're good enough to still be in it. Having winning seasons will make guys like Feldman take fair market deals to sign with us in FA instead of having to overpay.

[skanar]

I think the Feldman trade was fine.

The K-Rod for Delmonico trade made no sense to me at the time, and still makes no sense. Delmonico is a very solid position prospect, and I don't agree that he "took a step back" this season. A .769 OPS is completely respectable for a 20 year old in A+ ball, positional issues notwithstanding.

The Norris trade was about more than this season. And I think too many people are ignoring the value of the comp pick - it's almost like having traded Hunter Harvey plus Hoes and Hader. If Norris pitches will for two more years, though, that's probably a good deal. Can't evaluate this one yet.

The Morse trade was fine because Avery was not much of a loss. I didn't like it a lot, because I've never been a fan of Michael Morse, but I didn't have a problem with the trade.

[wildcard]

I think the fundamental problem was that DD did not add a veteran starter and a bat in the off season. That was an economic decision as far as I can tell but it really hurt the team and the mid season moves may not have been needed if DD had filled out the team the way he should have. So blame DD or Angelos, whatever.

From where the O's were a mid season I think the first three trades were needed. The Morse trade was just throwing away money and Avery, which no one here cares about. But expecting anything from Morse from where he was a the time of the trade was pure folly IMO.

I didn't think Feldman was much more than a long reliever in the AL East. I was wrong. He has done well and I hope the O's sign him again. Giving up Arrieta and Strop was a coup. As it turns out trading those two for a solid starter is something that DD should do every time he can.

The Norris trade hurt to give up the 35th (?)pick in next years draft and Hader. I understand that DD was going for it in 2013. Like Frobby, Norris leaves me with some concerns going forward. I don't know how much of the is due to his injuries. Time will tell.

The KRod trade was probably needed. The pen needed another arm. KRod was having a good year. He has not impressed and does not seem to have Buck confidence. He's probably gone after this year. Delmonico doesn't sound like a guy that makes it to the majors and has an impact. So I am ok was the trade.

Overall, I like that DD went for it. I wish he would have went for a starter and bat last winter.

[El Gordo]

I think it is important to look at these trades in the context of the "big picture". :rolleyestf: PA's and DD's long term plan is to build a continuingly competitive team that teases the fans back into the seats without spending what would be necessary to have a serious contender. In that light Norris allows us to avoid spending on a real SP next season. Morse and Feldman give the appearance of making a "run" for it, and keep the fans interested. The jig will be up next winter, when we do pretty much the same as last, saying we like our guys and fail to even extend anyone.

[wildcard]

I think it is important to look at these trades in the context of the "big picture". :rolleyestf: PA's and DD's long term plan is to build a continuingly competitive team that teases the fans back into the seats without spending what would be necessary to have a serious contender. In that light Norris allows us to avoid spending on a real SP next season. Morse and Feldman give the appearance of making a "run" for it, and keep the fans interested. The jig will be up next winter, when we do pretty much the same as last, saying we like our guys and fail to even extend anyone.

Though I share some of your skepticism, I think you are going a little too far. Yes PA is cost conscious. Yes DD has constraints to work under. But Buck and DD want to win and will do what they can to achieve that goal. The O's did extend Jones. I think they will make a good six year offer to Davis this off season. I don't know that Boras will let Davis sign though.

I am real interested in how much of the 25M from the TV contract goes to players salaries.

[El Gordo]

Though I share some of your skepticism, I think you are going a little too far. Yes PA is cost conscious. Yes DD has constraints to work under. But Buck and DD want to win and will do what they can to achieve that goal. The O's did extend Jones. I think they will make a good six year offer to Davis this off season. I don't know that Boras will let Davis sign though.

I am real interested in how much of the 25M from the TV contract goes to players salaries.

Forget the 25 M. It's the 100M ceiling. Which player can we afford to extend given that constraint? Doing nothing we will be at about 90M. Adding 10M to extend Manny pretty much does it, and that's before you resign BRob. and McLouth. If you want to extend Davis, it will cost a lot more than that per year, Wieters will come close to that, and besides neither of them will want to extend.

[Frobby]

I am real interested in how much of the 25M from the TV contract goes to players salaries.

You have to be very careful with this. Every single team has an extra $25 mm to spend just like we do. As a result, the free agents in this class will probably be grossly overpaid by teams that aren't thinking long-term. For me, the best use of the extra funds is to lock up the players we want to keep who are already here. That's not to say we shouldn't acquire some players through free agency or tradess, I'm just saying we need to realize that player contracts are going to get more expensive with the same overall supply of talent and more dollars chasing those players, and we should get ahead of that curve. I think Boston already did that by locking up Pedroia even though he was already under contract through 2015, and Tampa did it by locking up Longoria even though he was already under contract through 2016. That's how we need to be thinking. I'd rather spend money on Manny Machado than some random free agent.