Revisiting Duquettes' second half moves

[skanar]

We traded our comp pick which will probably be around pick number 34-40 (I'm not sure of the exact number). That's the equivalent of a 2nd round pick and you can look at our history of 2nd round picks to see that's not quite the value of the 22nd overall pick. Your point is valid that there is a value to that pick, but I don't think it's "almost like" Hunter Harvey. It's more like we traded Josh Hart along with Hader and Hoes.

The Orioles have the 2nd pick in the first balance round, which happens right after the first round of the draft. Only one first-rounder in this year's draft didn't sign, so the O's comp pick will be no higher than #33 (30 regular picks, one compensation pick, and the Rockies' balance pick). Every free agent given a qualifying offer who signs with a team that has a protected first-round pick (ie in the top 10) will increase this by 1. Last year, 2 qualifying FAs were signed by a team with a protected first-rounder; if that happens again, the O's pick will be #35.

Harvey was taken 22nd overall; Hart at #37. Hart would have been a better comparison to give.

[Singleton]

Spot on post. It was obvious Buck didn't approve the Krod deal. So he didn't play, he should have replaced JJ.

Krod did nothing in his 18 innings with us to make me think he'd be better than JJ.

[sportsfan8703]

Only Hader and the draft pick were the only things of real future value to us. Arrieta and Strop were done here. Hoes is a 4th OF type on a good team that can't really play CF, or at least our scouts thought so. Delmonico is probably going to have to be a 1b and stay healthy. Hopefully Feldman re signs with us to something reasonable like 3/21 mil.

Going back to spring training though Todd Redmond would have been a nice guy to have in the pen and spot start.

[hoosiers]

Well, since someone seems to have started a thread based on my opinion (a lack of discretion there IMO, but I guess it's an internet message board), I'll chime in here.

I do think our GM has had a poor year with decisions - going back to last off-season when some of us were advocating dealing both JJs - especially to a seemingly interested Detroit team with a front office known for over-paying with prospects for what they want. Obviously, this paragraph is a slight digression from the OP in this thread, but I will just say that it hints at decision-making by our GM that has been IMO well-below average over a range of issues since last off-season.

It is difficult for me to say this because I am not sure I entirely believe it because with 10 better late innings pitched (instead of the disasters we have experience) over the last few weeks would make a big difference, but ..... this was not a team that was going to make the playoffs in mid-July given our standing, the remaining schedule and the healthy players other organizations were expecting to get back. (And while I say "playoffs", I will also say it is not worth it to me to give up the prospects we did even to get the second wild card.) We are not close to being a division winner and our front office should be hoarding B prospects and draft picks - not giving them up for rentals.

What is missing from the OP is appropriate context. What did other playoff "bubble" teams in the AL and NL do and what prospects did they give up? What healthy players were those organizations expecting back before the end of the year. The Os gave up three or four organization Top 10 prospects plus a key draft pick - which I consider to be a lot. Did other teams give up as much? The Rays? The Indians? The Yankees? The As? Rangers? What did the Reds and Cardinals give up? Not only have Bud and KRod been disappointing performance-wise, but it is clear that our front office had to out-bid other organizations to get them - which is kind of mind-boggling in retrospect. Now, I'm not going to launch into a massive defense of Xavier Avery, but Xman was enjoying perhaps the best two months of his minor league career - going a third of a season in AAA with an OBP in the .365 range and looking perhaps (at least statistically) like things might start falling into place for the 23 year old. I wouldn't give up much for 60-75 at-bats from a struggling Mike Morse and that includes Xman.

If folks don't like the phrase I used - fundamental miscalculation, that's too bad. I think our front office has woefully over-estimated the chances of our team making the playoffs and in the process has given up a significant quantity of good prospects and a valuable draft pick. It has been a long time since we've seen our front office mis-managed to this extent. I do not believe any other two organizations will have given up more at the deadline than we did and still missed the playoffs. To me, that represents a "fundamental miscalculation".

[Roll Tide]

Nice analysis.

My thoughts is more important what DD didn't do, he didn't give up the farm.

My only complaint is DD adding guys that Buck refuses to use.

[Ori-Al]

I have no problem with losing Avery (he appears to have an arm like a wet noodle, and is not that good at getting on base), but I would've preferred he be included in a trade for Soriano, rather than offensively useless Morse.

[skanar]

I have no problem with losing Avery (he appears to have an arm like a wet noodle, and is not that good at getting on base), but I would've preferred he be included in a trade for Soriano, rather than offensively useless Morse.

Don't have time to check ATM, but I'm pretty sure Soriano had a NTC and would only agree to go to New York.

[Say O!]

We traded our comp pick which will probably be around pick number 34-40 (I'm not sure of the exact number). That's the equivalent of a 2nd round pick and you can look at our history of 2nd round picks to see that's not quite the value of the 22nd overall pick. Your point is valid that there is a value to that pick, but I don't think it's "almost like" Hunter Harvey. It's more like we traded Josh Hart along with Hader and Hoes.

AS for Norris, I'm a bit non-committal about him after seeing him now with the Orioles. First of all, I'm always concerned with two-pitch starters and that's basically what Norris is since he rarely throws his changeup and it's not very good. I really think this is a pitch he needs to develop to turn the corner. The Orioles should work with him to find a better grip or something he can command better because right now, if he can't bury that slider at the back foot of the lefty, he struggles to get them out. This is part of the reason why it takes him so many pitches to get through stuff. His fastball-slider combo is pretty solid, and honestly, I could see him being a pretty decent bullpen guy or even closer, but he's be more of a 4th/5th starter with his current repertoire. Now is that better than running out dregs like Jurrjenns and Garcia, absolutely, but we have to temper our expectations of him. He's a bulldog guy and can gut out performances without imploding, but he's more of a back of the rotation guy with an upside of a 3rd starter if he can find an effective go to pitch against lefties (maybe K-rod can work with him?).

If Gausman sticks in the rotation, I could see shifting Norris to a late inning option and him kicking it up a few notches like Tommy Hunter. And he could be dominant there if he threw a split.

[wildcard]

On the bolded players:

I don't see Wieters getting $9 mm. More like $7 mm.

McLouth I think will be a little lower, $5-6 mm.

Norris I think will be a little lower, $5 mm.

Roberts I think will be a little higher, $2-2.5 mm.

Clearly, we'd be close to $100 mm if we just stood pat. I don't think Duq will be constrained to that, considering attendance up ~250,000 (probably $8-10 mm in revenue) plus the extra $25 mm in TV money. I'm sure not all of that will go to payroll, but I'd think a noticeable increase will appear.

I don't think you are not considering the increase in salaries that will occur from increased revenue from the TV contract. Agents, no doubt lead but Boras will want more money for their players. I think DD reference to it as a market adjustment. FA will see a higher level of competition from clubs with money. By the time arbitration hearlngs occur it will be apparent that the market has adjusted upward.

[TonySoprano]

It is difficult for me to say this because I am not sure I entirely believe it because with 10 better late innings pitched (instead of the disasters we have experience) over the last few weeks would make a big difference, but ..... this was not a team that was going to make the playoffs in mid-July given our standing, the remaining schedule and the healthy players other organizations were expecting to get back.

On July 14, we were 53-43 compared to 51-45 on July 23, 2012. We were able to go on a late season run last season, and there was a chance we could go on another run this year. In retrospect we know that didn't happen, but if you're Duquette in mid-July you do what you can to give your team a fighting chance. I think he believed he owed it to the fans to not stand pat, nor could he afford to do so.

Chen was out from mid-May until mid-July. Hammel missed the month of August. Arrieta was looking like a AAAA pitcher and is still a below league average pitcher in the N.L.. Buck had to find ways to avoid using Strop because he was so ineffective. Feldman has done his part and then some the last month and a half.

[Frobby]

Krod did nothing in his 18 innings with us to make me think he'd be better than JJ.

Me neither. He has had some good outings but has been just so-so overall.

[Frobby]

Well, since someone seems to have started a thread based on my opinion (a lack of discretion there IMO, but I guess it's an internet message board), I'll chime in here.

Why was it a lack of discretion to quote your post? I could have just responded to it in the BP Playoff Odds thread, but I thought it made sense to have a separate discussion rather than cluttering up that thread, which really serves a different purpose. I only quoted you because I think your opinions are worthy of consideration, even though in this instance I disagree with you.

[hoosiers]

In retrospect we know that didn't happen, but if you're Duquette in mid-July you do what you can to give your team a fighting chance. I think he believed he owed it to the fans to not stand pat, nor could he afford to do so.

I get what you are saying TonyS, but I think DD owes it to the fans to properly assess the competitive prospects of his team and to act/react accordingly. I think DD blew it big time.

We are so far behind the BoSox and we have no business giving up a high draft pick and multiple Top 10 prospects for mediocre rentals. Feldman has been impressive but .... so what? We added an impressive pitcher to what we had before and now we are in a worse competitive position .... what does that say about where we were going at the time of the deals?

[TonySoprano]

I get what you are saying TonyS, but I think DD owes it to the fans to properly assess the competitive prospects of his team and to act/react accordingly. I think DD blew it big time.

We are so far behind the BoSox and we have no business giving up a high draft pick and multiple Top 10 prospects for mediocre rentals. Feldman has been impressive but .... so what? We added an impressive pitcher to what we had before and now we are in a worse competitive position .... what does that say about where we were going at the time of the deals?

There isn't a GM out there who hits a HR every time he makes a roster move of some sort. What we can say today, and what will of course be revisted over and over for many more months, is that Feldman looks like a good move, and Norris is TBD.

I still remember 2005 when we started to slip in the standing and Beattie wanted to trade for Burnett and Lowell and the deal died on Angelos' desk. I remember all the "major" trade deadline deals under Angelos (feel free to review the linked list).

We'll have to agree to disagree on whether Duquette should have stood pat. I believe that under the financial constraints he has, he did what he thought was best for the fans.

[eddie83]

I get what you are saying TonyS, but I think DD owes it to the fans to properly assess the competitive prospects of his team and to act/react accordingly. I think DD blew it big time.

We are so far behind the BoSox and we have no business giving up a high draft pick and multiple Top 10 prospects for mediocre rentals. Feldman has been impressive but .... so what? We added an impressive pitcher to what we had before and now we are in a worse competitive position .... what does that say about where we were going at the time of the deals?

What rental? Are you talking Delmonico for Krod? Norris is here for 2 more years that costed us the most. We gave up Strop and Arrieta for Feldman and may also of gotten a 2nd catcher.

Not fair in my mind to compare us to Boston. Look at what they paid for Dempster, we aren't doing something like that. Norris fits our economic model.