Clevenger/Wieters Platoon in 2014?

[waroriole]

Under the new CBA they'd have to go through some qualifying offer machanations that he rejects to get any pick out of him, and even then I think it's just the one.

You're right, it is just one. Still, he's the kind of player you offer because he'll get a lengthy contract, making the team less concerned with the pick lost. Unless, he just bombs the next 2 years, I don't think it's too risky to offer him arbitration.

[Il BuonO]

I doubt they sign anything this offseason, unless we offer them a stupid contract. He's coming off his worst season, and only has 2 years until FA. At this point, I wouldn't be too upset if we ride him until he's a FA and then let him go, while getting a couple of picks.

Under the new CBA they'd have to go through some qualifying offer machanations that he rejects to get any pick out of him, and even then I think it's just the one.

Unless he really turns it around with the bat I expect this is what we'd see and I'm fine with that.

[DrungoHazewood]

In the majors that will drop to maybe .260, and his walk rate will go down to something like 5% of PAs, giving him an average OBP, at best, to go along with a career high of 8 homers.

Do you just make this stuff up or do you have some kind of data to support these numbers?

I'm just using basic rules of thumb. Almost nobody carries over a .311 average as a 27-year-old in AAA. Almost every player loses walks being promoted. You typically see larger walk losses among players with lower ISOs, and Clevenger doesn't have a lot of power. I wouldn't pay all that much attention to the exact numbers, but I think the broad theory is sound - Clevenger will hit for a substantially lower average and walk less than he did in AA/AAA if given regular playing time in the majors.

[Ruzious]

Yeah, counting on Clevenger to be anything more than an okay backup seems like a shot in the dark - that a contending team simply doesn't do - if it wants to stay a contending team.

And the idea that Atlanta isn't going to spend to keep McCann - and would then trade valuable assets and pay for Wieters seems highly unrealistic. It's possible they don't retain McCann, but I think Braves fans would revolt if that happens. If they do let him go, it might be an opportunity for the O's to get him. Then trade Wieters to the highest bidder. Don't depend on veteran minor leaguers to start at catcher.

[Camden_yardbird]

These exercises (platoon Wieters) are nice in theory. But if you are thinking realistically, you need to think like a GM. You don't platoon a star (yes a star), who is making as much as Wieters will make, because the splits might be better.

Throw out Clevenger. Even if the Orioles picked up a great platoon hitter (think Valencia second half), a GM still doesn't platoon Wieters.

[DrungoHazewood]

And the idea that Atlanta isn't going to spend to keep McCann - and would then trade valuable assets and pay for Wieters seems highly unrealistic. It's possible they don't retain McCann, but I think Braves fans would revolt if that happens. If they do let him go, it might be an opportunity for the O's to get him. Then trade Wieters to the highest bidder. Don't depend on veteran minor leaguers to start at catcher.

I was going to post something like the first part of your statement - if the Braves don't want to pay up to keep a (baseball) middle-aged catcher who's been productive but is about to get more expensive... sure, I can buy into that. But why would they then turn around and acquire Matt Wieters, who is an experienced catcher who's been productive but is about to get more expensive?!

And along the same lines... if the O's are trying to save cash and avoid a potentially declining/worn out catcher why would they more-or-less trade Wieters for McCann? Does McCann not have, at least at a 10,000-ft level, similar issues to Wieters (caught a lot of games, big payday coming, little better hitter, little worse fielder)? Plus he hasn't been brought up in the Orioles system and isn't familiar with players, pitchers, processes, etc.

[Dr. FLK]

Yeah, lets sell low on one of the best catchers in the game...great idea.

He's having a below average year, sure. But, it's not really that far below average. His current slash of 230/285/410 isn't too much different than his average numbers of 254/319/418. Call it what you will...the guy just isn't anything special at the plate.

[DrungoHazewood]

He's having a below average year, sure. But, it's not really that far below average. His current slash of 230/285/410 isn't too much different than his average numbers of 254/319/418. Call it what you will...the guy just isn't anything special at the plate.

Of course that ignores both his durability and his defense. By fWAR he's the 7th-most valuable catcher in baseball since his debut year in 2009. By Fangraph's fielding metrics it's Yadier Molina at +44 runs since 2009, then Wieters at +35, then all the way down to Humberto Quintero at +23 in third place.

No, he's not an MVP, or even an annual All Star. But he's very solid.

[Dr. FLK]

Of course that ignores both his durability and his defense. By fWAR he's the 7th-most valuable catcher in baseball since his debut year in 2009. By Fangraph's fielding metrics it's Yadier Molina at +44 runs since 2009, then Wieters at +35, then all the way down to Humberto Quintero at +23 in third place.

No, he's not an MVP, or even an annual All Star. But he's very solid.

I said he wasn't anything special at the plate. I don't disagree with you about his defense. But, I don't think being "very solid" makes him worth the salary Boras thinks he'll get. If we can keep him at a reasonable salary, then I'm fine with him. But he's not a guy I break the bank for.

[DrungoHazewood]

I said he wasn't anything special at the plate. I don't disagree with you about his defense. But, I don't think being "very solid" makes him worth the salary Boras thinks he'll get. If we can keep him at a reasonable salary, then I'm fine with him. But he's not a guy I break the bank for.

What's "breaking the bank"? If he'd sign a deal that paid him 8, 10, 12, 14 (4/44) for the next four years would you do it?

[Frobby]

I said he wasn't anything special at the plate. I don't disagree with you about his defense. But, I don't think being "very solid" makes him worth the salary Boras thinks he'll get. If we can keep him at a reasonable salary, then I'm fine with him. But he's not a guy I break the bank for.

Has Boras ever said what he thinks Wieters will get? I think that people just assume that, because Boras is the agent, Wieters' asking price will be out of this world. Of course, I expect Boras to be very aggressive, but he can't pretend that Wieters is Posey or even Molina.

[webbrick2010]

Of course that ignores both his durability and his defense. By fWAR he's the 7th-most valuable catcher in baseball since his debut year in 2009. By Fangraph's fielding metrics it's Yadier Molina at +44 runs since 2009, then Wieters at +35, then all the way down to Humberto Quintero at +23 in third place.

No, he's not an MVP, or even an annual All Star. But he's very solid.

Yes but for how long?? He is an oversized catcher that has been abused by his manager. I think his defense is already starting to slide, and I think his pitch framing skills are below average.

I'm okay with letting him get two more arb raises but the O's should/need to have a new catcher by the 2016 season. I would love to trade him but I don't think that he will really get that much and he is valuable to the O's especially if they move him permanently to the 8 hole in the lineup.

[Say O!]

Boras is a fox laying in the weeds. Once Matt produces a solid 2 month stretch with the bat, we will hear from him.

[Dr. FLK]

Has Boras ever said what he thinks Wieters will get? I think that people just assume that, because Boras is the agent, Wieters' asking price will be out of this world. Of course, I expect Boras to be very aggressive, but he can't pretend that Wieters is Posey or even Molina.

Well, they cut off extension talks right? And, you're certainly right - I am assuming. But, I'm assuming based off of Boras's track record.

[Dr. FLK]

What's "breaking the bank"? If he'd sign a deal that paid him 8, 10, 12, 14 (4/44) for the next four years would you do it?

I don't want to be on the hook for Wieters at $12-14mil in 3-4 years. How many catchers have been worth $14mil in their age 30-31 seasons? I don't want 15% of our payroll to be tied up in a catcher who can't hit.