With yesterday's HR, is there ANY chance Chris Davis could get MVP?

[atomic]

While the above post may be sarcasm, using it as an opportunity to show some key areas of the game where Trout has a huge advantage.

Double Plays:

Cabrera has grounded into 9 more double plays this year than Trout

Extra bases/baserunning:

Trout takes an extra base 57% of the time while Cabrera is at 29%.

Trout has reached third 23 times out of 39 chances when on 1B when a single is hit, compared to 6 out of 48 for Cabrera.

Trout has scored from 2nd on a single 15 out of 20 times, compared to 10 out of 19 for Cabrera.

Trout has 26 net steals (SB - CS) compared to 3 for Cabrera.

Trout has been caught stealing 7 times Cabrera zero times. I think getting caught 7 times in 40 attempts makes that a neutral stat at best. Trout has also been picked off 3 times that are not included in his caught stealing stats. Cabrera has not been picked off this year. I would say stealing goes to Cabrera.

Also Cabrera has been out on the base path 3 times to Trouts 5 times. And Cabrera has advanced 23 times due to fly balls, passed balls, wild pitched to Trouts 20 times.

The first to third stats do seem to favor Trout significantly.

[El Gordo]

Trout has been caught stealing 7 times Cabrera zero times. I think getting caught 7 times in 40 attempts makes that a neutral stat at best. Trout has also been picked off 3 times that are not included in his caught stealing stats. Cabrera has not been picked off this year. I would say stealing goes to Cabrera.

Also Cabrera has been out on the base path 3 times to Trouts 5 times. And Cabrera has advanced 23 times due to fly balls, passed balls, wild pitched to Trouts 20 times.

The first to third stats do seem to favor Trout significantly.

This post is absolutely ridiculous. An 85 % SB rate is very good. Just a simple question for you, there are three major aspects to a players game: Fielding, batting, and base running right? Bhat percent of value would you give to each. It would seem that it is 80% Batting, 15 % fielding and 5% base running for you.

[atomic]

This post is absolutely ridiculous. An 85 % SB rate is very good. Just a simple question for you, there are three major aspects to a players game: Fielding, batting, and base running right? Bhat percent of value would you give to each. It would seem that it is 80% Batting, 15 % fielding and 5% base running for you.

He doesn't have 80 percent rate. He has 33 steals. He was picked off 3 times and caught stealing 7 times. That is 76 percent rate. I believe that is close to the break even rate for steals being helpful to your team. He was also thrown out on the bases 15 times in total. I am guessing that would lead the Orioles.

I would say that fielding is 50 percent. But Trout is rated below average when he plays centerfield. He gets the high offensive WAR when he plays centerfield. I think people are overrating Trout. His baserunning isn't stellar. He gets thrown out a lot. 15 times on the bases to Cabreras 3 times. Cabrera isn't a terrible third baseman in the games I have seen him play.

[atomic]

So I found this article that states that the break even rate on stolen bases depends on the guys home run rates behind you and it states that with nobody out Mike Trouts break even rate with no outs is 76.2% and with one out it is 74.9%.

Here is the link http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2013/2/20/3980504/individual-stolen-base-break-even-rates

So it appears his rate is just about neutral.

[DrungoHazewood]

He doesn't have 80 percent rate. He has 33 steals. He was picked off 3 times and caught stealing 7 times. That is 76 percent rate. I believe that is close to the break even rate for steals being helpful to your team. He was also thrown out on the bases 15 times in total. I am guessing that would lead the Orioles.

I would say that fielding is 50 percent. But Trout is rated below average when he plays centerfield. He gets the high offensive WAR when he plays centerfield. I think people are overrating Trout. His baserunning isn't stellar. He gets thrown out a lot. 15 times on the bases to Cabreras 3 times. Cabrera isn't a terrible third baseman in the games I have seen him play.

That's why you have frameworks like WAR that take break-even rates on various events into account and apply them consistently to all players.

[El Gordo]

He doesn't have 80 percent rate. He has 33 steals. He was picked off 3 times and caught stealing 7 times. That is 76 percent rate. I believe that is close to the break even rate for steals being helpful to your team. He was also thrown out on the bases 15 times in total. I am guessing that would lead the Orioles.

I would say that fielding is 50 percent. But Trout is rated below average when he plays centerfield. He gets the high offensive WAR when he plays centerfield. I think people are overrating Trout. His baserunning isn't stellar. He gets thrown out a lot. 15 times on the bases to Cabreras 3 times. Cabrera isn't a terrible third baseman in the games I have seen him play.

I give up, you're hopeless. You attempt, albeit clumsily, to use metrics to prove Trout is a poor base runner/defender, but you claim Cabrera to be a OK fielder based on what you've seen? BTW his SB rate is 82.5% break even is 79% IIRC. Being picked off doesn't factor in to his SB rate. The fact is Trout is a good base runner, good OF, and a very good hitter. Cabrera is an excellent hitter, poor base runner, and one of the poorest fielding 3B in the game.

[atomic]

I give up, you're hopeless. You attempt, albeit clumsily, to use metrics to prove Trout is a poor base runner/defender, but you claim Cabrera to be a OK fielder based on what you've seen? BTW his SB rate is 82.5% break even is 79% IIRC. Being picked off doesn't factor in to his SB rate. The fact is Trout is a good base runner, good OF, and a very good hitter. Cabrera is an excellent hitter, poor base runner, and one of the poorest fielding 3B in the game.

If you are picked off it is usually because you are trying to get a big lead so you can steal. I put in the caught stealing rate. You can ignore it and pick stats to make a blayer look better than he is. Cabrera is not a poor base runner. He doesn't get picked off he doesn't thrown out on the base paths. He might not be fast but that does not make him a poor base runner. Nothing clumsy about the stats. I showed the real stats and gave you links to back it up. Whatever you obvioulsy don't care about stats.

As for Cabrera he moved to third to help the team. He plays a decent first base but the team signed Fielder and he didn't complain. I don't know why you are defending Trout so ilogically. Are you an Angels fan?

[Frobby]

So I found this article that states that the break even rate on stolen bases depends on the guys home run rates behind you and it states that with nobody out Mike Trouts break even rate with no outs is 76.2% and with one out it is 74.9%.

Here is the link http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2013/2/20/3980504/individual-stolen-base-break-even-rates

So it appears his rate is just about neutral.

For what it's worth, Baseball Prospectus has a stat called "baserunning runs" that measures all the effects of players on the bases. Trout is at +3.0, Cabrera at -2.1. Of Trout's 3.0 total, 0.99 comes from stolen bases.

Also, if you look at the compenents of rWAR, Trout is worth +6 baserunning runs, Cabrera is at 0. So, using either measure, Trout is worth 5-6 more runs (.5-.6 wins) based on his baserunning. It is not a huge component of his rWAR total.

[Loophole]

Davis is probably finishing ahead of Trout no matter what, which says more about the voters than it does Davis. If the O's end up in the playoffs there's no way he finishes worse than 2nd, and there'd be a decent chance of him winning it.

[BohKnowsBmore]

Davis is probably finishing ahead of Trout no matter what, which says more about the voters than it does Davis. If the O's end up in the playoffs there's no way he finishes worse than 2nd, and there'd be a decent chance of him winning it.

He's still 1st in the al in wpa, which is nice.

[DrungoHazewood]

If you are picked off it is usually because you are trying to get a big lead so you can steal. I put in the caught stealing rate. You can ignore it and pick stats to make a blayer look better than he is. Cabrera is not a poor base runner. He doesn't get picked off he doesn't thrown out on the base paths. He might not be fast but that does not make him a poor base runner. Nothing clumsy about the stats. I showed the real stats and gave you links to back it up. Whatever you obvioulsy don't care about stats.

As for Cabrera he moved to third to help the team. He plays a decent first base but the team signed Fielder and he didn't complain. I don't know why you are defending Trout so ilogically. Are you an Angels fan?

What do you mean by illogically? By what systematic, logical method or framework is Cabrera better than Trout?

[markakis8]

Another clutch hit. That'll help a little:)

[TonySoprano]

Davis has tied Cabrera in RBI. I'd love for Chris to get the RBI win as well.

Hey, Miguel. NO triple crown for you. Not this year.

[bluedog]

Davis is now tied with Cabrera in Runs and RBIs. All the fancier composite stats aside, I feel like those two stats are the most important for determining the value a player has brought to his team on offense. If Davis ends up ahead of Cabrera in Runs, RBIs, 2bs & HRs and the O's make the playoffs, I think Davis should get legitimate consideration for MVP.

[DrungoHazewood]

Davis is now tied with Cabrera in Runs and RBIs. All the fancier composite stats aside, I feel like those two stats are the most important for determining the value a player has brought to his team on offense. If Davis ends up ahead of Cabrera in Runs, RBIs, 2bs & HRs and the O's make the playoffs, I think Davis should get legitimate consideration for MVP.

In the minds of many MVP voters, yes. In reality, not so much.