I don't care what anyone says, 100 saves in two years is impressive

[Can_of_corn]

I'm surprised that Neyer equated BABIP to luck. JJ was hit hard at certain times when he didn't get his sinker down or out of the zone. That's not luck IMO. Yes, I do think there is a luck component, but if you ask me there's a lot more to it. General rule: the harder the contact, the higher the BABIP.

He probably didn't have eyes on when Johnson was struggling.

[Barnaby Graves]

I'm surprised that Neyer equated BABIP to luck. JJ was hit hard at certain times when he didn't get his sinker down or out of the zone. That's not luck IMO. Yes, I do think there is a luck component, but if you ask me there's a lot more to it. General rule: the harder the contact, the higher the BABIP.

What you are talking about is xBABIP, the expected BABIP as derived from batted ball stats.

From 2012 to 2013:

His line drive % went from 16.4 to 20.5

His groundball % went from 62.3 to 58

Same flyball % basically

IFFB% decreased 6.8 to 4.5

HR/FB% went from 6.8 to 11.4

IFH went from 8.5 to 2.5

Eyeballing these numbers, his xBABIP must've gone up. He was hit harder and the numbers demonstrate that pretty well. But why? I don't know.

[calmunderfire]

Just stop already. We missed the playoffs by six games.

Dude I know that. Johnson destroyed like 5 games in a row twice in the same season!

[CA-ORIOLE]

What you are talking about is xBABIP, the expected BABIP as derived from batted ball stats.

From 2012 to 2013:

His line drive % went from 16.4 to 20.5

His groundball % went from 62.3 to 58

Same flyball % basically

IFFB% decreased 6.8 to 4.5

HR/FB% went from 6.8 to 11.4

IFH went from 8.5 to 2.5

Eyeballing these numbers, his xBABIP must've gone up. He was hit harder and the numbers demonstrate that pretty well. But why? I don't know.

My 2 cents. It's really hard to thread the needle on sinkerballs at the bottom of the strike zone.The margin for error is a lot smaller than a conventional pitcher. Sometimes I wonder if JJ wouldn't be better running his 2 seamer more and using all his secondary pitches more effectively.

[JayThomas]

My 2 cents. It's really hard to thread the needle on sinkerballs at the bottom of the strike zone.The margin for error is a lot smaller than a conventional pitcher. Sometimes I wonder if JJ wouldn't be better running his 2 seamer more and using all his secondary pitches more effectively.

Isn't his 2 seamer the same thing as his sinker? Just curious - I've always assumed that in JJ's case these two are synonymous.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Isn't his 2 seamer the same thing as his sinker? Just curious - I've always assumed that in JJ's case these two are synonymous.

The terms are used interchangebly. Pitchers that emphasize downward trajectory are termed sinkerballers.

[mdbdotcom]

Dude I know that. Johnson destroyed like 5 games in a row twice in the same season!

How many games did we lose after leading? 40-something, wasn't it? Johnson was responsible for 8 of them. He blew 9 save opportunities. 8 of them became losses. True, if he had gone 56-2, the O's would have the same record as the Rays and Rangers. How many closers are capable of that?

[calmunderfire]

How many games did we lose after leading? 40-something, wasn't it? Johnson was responsible for 8 of them. He blew 9 save opportunities. 8 of them became losses. True, if he had gone 56-2, the O's would have the same record as the Rays and Rangers. How many closers are capable of that?

Jim Johnson had 9 blown saves and took 8 losses. He was a disaster. He's the biggest reason for no playoffs.

[El Gordo]

Jim Johnson had 9 blown saves and took 8 losses. He was a disaster. He's the biggest reason for no playoffs.

I disagree the biggest reasons were Arrieta, Britton, Garcia, Hammel, Jurrjens, etc. If we had had Feldman and Norris from the beginning we would still be in it.

[Frobby]

Jim Johnson had 9 blown saves and took 8 losses. He was a disaster. He's the biggest reason for no playoffs.

With 59 opportunities, even a very good closer would be expected to blow 6-7 saves. You must have read this 100 times by now. Mariano Rivera has an 89% career save rate - do the math!

Also, 5 of Johnson's losses came in blown saves. You can't count them twice. In games not involving a blown save, he was 3-3.

Finally, you must know its a complete fiction that Johnson ever blew five games in a row. He blew 3 in a 6-game span in May (3 consecutive opportunities for him), and another 3 in a 6-game span in August (3 consecutive opportunities for him; the O's won the first of those 3). Those two bad stretches sucked. But he also had consecutive save streaks of 14, 12, 10 and 11. Those are very long streaks of success.

So let's cut the constant hyperbole. Nobody is saying JJ had a great year. But there have been a lot worse years by closers, and the Orioles would not have made the playoffs even if he'd been very good. The team wasn't good enough, as a team.

[DrungoHazewood]

Blowing like 5 games in a row twice during the same season is not almost no room for error. Johnson is the biggest reason why there is no playoffs.

Dude I know that. Johnson destroyed like 5 games in a row twice in the same season!

As Frobby has pointed out, you're being factually incorrect.

There have been 14 pitchers in all of MLB history to post a 50-save season. The average number of blown saves was about 5 (actuallly 4.7). So an average 50-save closer (i.e. average among the highest totals of saves in the history of baseball) would have still left the Orioles short of the playoffs.

I guess we can take solace in the fact that Johnson wasn't as tragically horriffic as Goose Gossage in 1983, when he had 22 saves and 11 blown. Or Bruce Sutter in '78, when he had 27 saves and 12 blown (plus 10 losses), which was probably one of the things that led his manager to just use him in save situations. Hell, Gossage had four different years where he blew at least 9 saves.

Johnson was tied for 45th in MLB history with his 9 blown saves. Tied literally with about 50 other pitchers. Make a list of all the best closers in modern history and bascially all of them have had season where they blew 9+ saves. Quisenberry, Gossage, Hiller, Sutter, Hoffman, Marshall, Lee Smith, Righetti, Eck, Fingers, Worrell... Gregg Olson once had a season with 14 saves and 9 blown. Jeff Reardon used to blow 9 or 10 saves almost every year. The greatest of all one-inning relievers, Rivera, had seasons with 8 and 7 blown saves, either of which would have cost the 2013 O's a playoff birth. And come to think of it... really did cost the Yanks a playoff birth. Good thing he's retiring, otherwise they'd probably send him packing to some loser team that tolerates stuff like that.

[bobmc]

As Frobby has pointed out, you're being factually incorrect.

There have been 14 pitchers in all of MLB history to post a 50-save season. The average number of blown saves was about 5 (actuallly 4.7). So an average 50-save closer (i.e. average among the highest totals of saves in the history of baseball) would have still left the Orioles short of the playoffs.

I guess we can take solace in the fact that Johnson wasn't as tragically horriffic as Goose Gossage in 1983, when he had 22 saves and 11 blown. Or Bruce Sutter in '78, when he had 27 saves and 12 blown (plus 10 losses), which was probably one of the things that led his manager to just use him in save situations. Hell, Gossage had four different years where he blew at least 9 saves.

Johnson was tied for 45th in MLB history with his 9 blown saves. Tied literally with about 50 other pitchers. Make a list of all the best closers in modern history and bascially all of them have had season where they blew 9+ saves. Quisenberry, Gossage, Hiller, Sutter, Hoffman, Marshall, Lee Smith, Righetti, Eck, Fingers, Worrell... Gregg Olson once had a season with 14 saves and 9 blown. Jeff Reardon used to blow 9 or 10 saves almost every year. The greatest of all one-inning relievers, Rivera, had seasons with 8 and 7 blown saves, either of which would have cost the 2013 O's a playoff birth. And come to think of it... really did cost the Yanks a playoff birth. Good thing he's retiring, otherwise they'd probably send him packing to some loser team that tolerates stuff like that.

Wow! Thanks for all of that research Jon! Amazing stuff - facts!

When JJ is on - he's as nasty as the best. I never imagined Rivera with 8 BS!

Now can we get back to BRob and why he decided to come back and kick baby seals?

Buck said it best when he said that teams tend to seek and find their own level of competence. We were what we were - decent but not great team that did not deserve to make the playoffs. We should be proud that they competed, in spite of their frailties, right up until the end!

But as much of a "pariah" calm has become, I can relate to his youthful brio and desire to see a playoff team. Go get back on that squat machine with Nicky and Wiety and "wait'll next year"! :clap3:

[DrungoHazewood]

Wow! Thanks for all of that research Jon! Amazing stuff - facts!

When JJ is on - he's as nasty as the best. I never imagined Rivera with 8 BS!

Thanks, Bob. My point wasn't necessarily to say Johnson had a good/great year. He was a pretty average closer who was put into a lot of high-leverage situations. And due to the randomness of outcomes in 60 or 80 innings even the very best closers have years where they cluster some poor results.

Basically my point was that Johnson had a down year but so does everyone.

[bobmc]

Thanks, Bob. My point wasn't necessarily to say Johnson had a good/great year. He was a pretty average closer who was put into a lot of high-leverage situations. And due to the randomness of outcomes in 60 or 80 innings even the very best closers have years where they cluster some poor results.

Basically my point was that Johnson had a down year but so does everyone.

Oh yeah I did "get that". But putting it into historical perspective, so did many stellar closers of the past.

[Redskins Rick]

I disagree the biggest reasons were Arrieta, Britton, Garcia, Hammel, Jurrjens, etc. If we had had Feldman and Norris from the beginning we would still be in it.

You are spot on, but, some people are unable to understand the concept and still want to beat on Johnson. Regardless!