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Adam Jones 2nd worst in MLB at swinging at Ball Four


Frobby

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This probably surprises nobody. Jones swung at a pitch that was obviously outside the strike zone that would have been Ball Four 16 times this season, tied for second most in MLB (behind Josh Hamilton, with 17). http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/swings-at-ball-four-the-year-in-brief-review/ The full article is well worth the read.

Here's a graph showing the criteria the author was using for outside the strike zone:

ballfourswings2013.png

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I know many want to keep minimizing AJs plate discipline issues but it's a real concern, especially with a long term deal. It's not just the terrible ABs now but I fear he could fall off a cliff like, say, Josh Hamilton did this season.

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My first reaction was shock that it was only sixteen times.

I'm not. You have to get to Ball Three first.

It would be interesting to see a chart like this for the times Jones swung with two strikes. For that matter, it would be interesting to know what the results were on Adam's 16 swings at Ball Four. The study suggests hitters do very poorly (no surprise), but it wouldn't surprise me if Jones does significantly better than the average player in that situation.

Anyway, it's not like we haven't discussed the general topic of Jones' agressiveness 1,000 times. But this was a new piece of data I found interesting.

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I'm not. You have to get to Ball Three first.

It would be interesting to see a chart like this for the times Jones swung with two strikes. For that matter, it would be interesting to know what the results were on Adam's 16 swings at Ball Four. The study suggests hitters do very poorly (no surprise), but it wouldn't surprise me if Jones does significantly better than the average player in that situation.

Anyway, it's not like we haven't discussed the general topic of Jones' agressiveness 1,000 times. But this was a new piece of data I found interesting.

Good point about ball three. It seems the times I saw him swing at ball four it was in the dirt and he missed.

I forgot the smiley on my first post. I'm in no way busting Jonesy's balls, although I do think it's his biggest fault as a player.

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I'm not. You have to get to Ball Three first.

It would be interesting to see a chart like this for the times Jones swung with two strikes. For that matter, it would be interesting to know what the results were on Adam's 16 swings at Ball Four. The study suggests hitters do very poorly (no surprise), but it wouldn't surprise me if Jones does significantly better than the average player in that situation.

Anyway, it's not like we haven't discussed the general topic of Jones' agressiveness 1,000 times. But this was a new piece of data I found interesting.

I was about to ask what his results are when he swings at Ball 4. I think it would be higher than average too.

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Good point about ball three. It seems the times I saw him swing at ball four it was in the dirt and he missed.

I forgot the smiley on my first post. I'm in no way busting Jonesy's balls, although I do think it's his biggest fault as a player.

Just to follow up, Jones had only 70 PA where he ever got to Ball Three. By contrast, Chris Davis (not exactly the most patient guy) got to Ball Three 149 times. All the other regulars (Markakis, Wieters, McLouth, Hardy, Macahdo) got to Ball Three between 104 and 125 times.

It's not necessarily an awful thing. Jones had 286 PA where he put the ball in play on counts of 0-0 (1.094 OPS), 1-0 (1.011), 0-1 (1.249) or 1-1 (1.241).

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Just to follow up, Jones had only 70 PA where he ever got to Ball Three. By contrast, Chris Davis (not exactly the most patient guy) got to Ball Three 149 times. All the other regulars (Markakis, Wieters, McLouth, Hardy, Macahdo) got to Ball Three between 104 and 125 times.

It's not necessarily an awful thing. Jones had 286 PA where he put the ball in play on counts of 0-0 (1.094 OPS), 1-0 (1.011), 0-1 (1.249) or 1-1 (1.241).

Wow. Good to see you Frank.

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I know many want to keep minimizing AJs plate discipline issues but it's a real concern, especially with a long term deal. It's not just the terrible ABs now but I fear he could fall off a cliff like, say, Josh Hamilton did this season.

He is what he is. I am not concerned about him or worried in the least about him.

Swung at pitches out of the zone 16 times in how many plate appearances? I am

sorry I just don't understand the concern. What were his home run numbers? His

RBI numbers? Also a GG winner. He is a good player. He is not Hall of Fame but

I sure am glad he is on the O's. IMO

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He is what he is. I am not concerned about him or worried in the least about him.

Swung at pitches out of the zone 16 times in how many plate appearances? I am

sorry I just don't understand the concern. What were his home run numbers? His

RBI numbers? Also a GG winner. He is a good player. He is not Hall of Fame but

I sure am glad he is on the O's. IMO

He walked 25 times all season, so it was a pretty high percentage.

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4% of Adam's K's this year were looking. The ML average is 25%. For his career he's a little better at 11%. Last year he was at 13%

He swung at 58% of pitches this year, compared to 46% for ML average. Last year he was at 55%.

He's a swinger. There's no way around it. That's what he believes makes him a good hitter. What we want, I think, is to have him be slightly more patient and more similar to the 2012 Adam, whose OBP was 16 points higher. His OPS+ dropped 10 points this year, mostly due to walk rate.

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