Looking at the Big Picture

[Scrat1]

The difference between us and Tampa, IMO, is that Tampa is always trading from surplus. They traded a really good pitcher in Shields, but they could afford to do so because of all the amazing young pitchers they have. We don't have surplus. That's because our farm system has been a below average producer for a couple of decades now.

I'm not sure I buy into this logic. It strikes me as results-based rather than process-based. The Orioles have a significantly deeper pool of talent at the major and minor league level than we did five years ago and very little of that was entirely developed on the farm. Most of it was acquired from trading established guys that would have been cost-prohibitive for the Orioles to sign. Though the Rays certainly have a more productive farm than the Orioles, it's also true that the Rays have acquired much of their depth through those same trades. They traded away Garza and got Archer (among others), which allowed them to trade away Shields, which got them Myers. This offseason they'll trade away Price and get the prospect that will be Moore or Longoria's future replacement.

The depth that allows them to trade away guys comes in no small part from those trades. Simply because the Orioles don't have a replacement ready in the wings should have no bearing on whether or not it's the right time to trade a guy. If next offseason the Orioles still haven't worked out an extension with Wieters and there's a market for him, it doesn't matter if someone else is ready. Like gambling, you're simply playing the numbers. If you're unsentimental and disciplined about it, as the Rays and Oakland are, you're going reap the rewards.

I think it's far smarter to bring in fresh blood and keep the team's "natural" record at around 85 wins so that some years you'll have some things break right and make it to the playoffs rather than roll the dice on a guy like Carlos Beltran on the specious logic that he'll put you over the hump, sacrificing the future in the process.

[FR500]

I, on the other hand, DO envy DD. He's an Os GM who finally has a solid core of players (All-Stars, GG & SS winners) to work with. Now, all he has to do is HIS JOB.... acquire the last couple of pieces to finally get us to the promise land.

All we been hearing for the past umpteen years is that once we were close, we would be going aggressively after the last couple of players we need. Year after year, we kept hearing that it was senseless to go after a big ticket player because one or two wouldn't make a difference. Now a couple key players will finally make a difference.

Please DD, don't repeat last embarrassing off-season and merely hope for the AAAA players on the team (like Nolan R. for example) to play like real quality major leaguers.... Do your job and make the moves.

[Babypowder]

I, on the other hand, DO envy DD. He's an Os GM who finally has a solid core of players (All-Stars, GG & SS winners) to work with. Now, all he has to do is HIS JOB.... acquire the last couple of pieces to finally get us to the promise land.

All we been hearing for the past umpteen years is that once we were close, we would be going aggressively after the last couple of players we need. Year after year, we kept hearing that it was senseless to go after a big ticket player because one or two wouldn't make a difference. Now a couple key players will finally make a difference.

Please DD, don't repeat last embarrassing off-season and merely hope for the AAAA players on the team (like Nolan R. for example) to play like real quality major leaguers.... Do your job and make the moves.

Don't hold your breath.

[Frobby]

Washington would pay 4 million for an effective lefthanded reliever. Matusz would have that value to them.

They'd pay 4 million for a guy who can only face lefties? I don't think they're that stupid.

They are that stupid and that needy.

Matusz isn't going to cost anyone $4 mm. MLBTradeRumors estimated $2.1 mm.

[weams]

Matusz isn't going to cost anyone $4 mm. MLBTradeRumors estimated $2.1 mm.

Oh. I know. I just meant that is the Nationals budget for a lefthanded specialist this off season.

[Bradysburns]

We do have a nice core, but, as noted above, we are on the outside looking in - IMO, we were last offseason as well.

I would like to see us trade major pieces for a strong run in 2015-6 - by which time Gausman, Bundy will be established in the majors with Harvey knocking on the door to go with Tillman, Manny and perhaps Schoop as our core guys. That core could be supplemented by whatever we get in trade for Wieters and the two JJs and perhaps Adam Jones. That would open up the possibility of entering 2015-6 with an incredibly talented, young and cheap core. I am not saying to deal all of our good veterans right away, but I would certainly move some of them tomorrow and others would wait for the right deal.

Before a final point, I want to make two observations. People here love JJ Hardy for his production, professionalism and contract - all good stuff, but people are talking extensions above for him and, while a different player, I would bet serious $ that the next Hardy contract will not provide much opportunity for a team to get nearly the value on the current one and would have a great chance of ending up like the LTCs we gave Mora, BRob and Nick. We need to deal these players at the end of their prime instead of offering contracts that extend beyond the player's peak production.

Second, I wouldn't deal JJ unless it was a fair deal. We give up quality, we get quality. Very simple. The overall talent level in the organization should stay the same, but we are dealing an older, higher $ player for a younger, cheaper player or two or three with upside. The team does not have to stink for two years just because we deal away our core. The lesson from the Bedard trade is that one can deal one's best player and be better off immediately and in the future. Few trades are as lopsided as that one, but the core lesson should not be missed. Dealing JJ Hardy does not mean we will be worse next year.

My final issue with all of this is that I do not believe the management as currently constructed is up for a rebuild. Buck did not sign up for a rebuild and I expect he would strenuously object to dealing one of these veterans even in an overwhelming deal. I believe there is some understanding that Buck will do his best with what he has and that it is up to the GM to get the talent in the minors to quality status. This is my conjecture, but I don't think Buck would be on board with a rebuild even if it is a minor one and we are a weaker organization for it. FWIW, I don't think PA would be on board with a rebuild either.

Very insightful - as was the OP. I tend to agree with you across the board here. If were are not keeping Davis or Wieters, trade them THIS offseason. 2 years of player control will justify all kinds of deals that otherwise wouldn't get done. Meanwhile, I love gearing up for a 2014-15-16 build. Essentially, you're conceding 2014, but if it's for something much greater the next season, then so be it.

The one objection I would have is trading Jones. I love the guy - he's a great player and a great clubhouse presence from what I can tell. Good citizen, good personality - a true super star in the making. And I feel like he's a true Oriole. While I love Davis and think he's a good MOO bat, his value is extremely high - will never likely be higher. Now would be the time to trade him.

But I agree. It's a complex situation. It'll be very interesting to see what DD does.

[wildcard]

In some ways I feel the O's have to act like Tampa.

This offseason Price has two years left of Rays control. There are strong rumors that they will shop him this off season and if they get the right offer trade him this off season while his value is at its peak. I listened to a podcast with Olney and Law and they were saying that Price will hold his value through July of next year but after that it will drop. They said the talk in the industry was that the Rays would trade Price before the season starts because its harder make big trades during the season.

I think the O's are a level above the Rays financially. They can sign Davis and Wieters to market value contracts. And they should if they can. However, if its mid January and its clear that one or both players are going to go through FA then the O's should shop them. At that point the only way for the O's to keep they value is to trade them. I hope it does not come to that and Boras, Davis and/or Wieters would have to push the O's into that situation but the O's should be willing to move either player if that is the way it happens.

I know that a majority of posters on the OH think that the O's should be OK with a one year contract for both players and deal with the situation next off season. I started a poll that posters pretty much said that. However, I do not agree. The O's have lifted themselves from a second division team to a contender by developing their core. The O's must protect the value they have developed and not let it walk or decrease in value. If they do they will be back in the second division waiting for draft choice to mature or getting less in trade because they waited a year too long.

[El Gordo]

The problem with the decision to trade Wieters and Davis, is we won't know whether we can extend them until arbitration. Boras always drags out negotiations to the very end. By that time teams may have made other moves. In Wieters' case it makes sense for him to wait until next to extend. If he has a good season then he will probably go FA, if not he'll be more likely to extend

[weams]

Steve Johnson will get you Jonathan Sandfort.

[weams]

Troy Patton can get you Onelki Garcia .

[weams]

Jon Schoop can get you Dillon Gee.

[Can_of_corn]

Jon Schoop can get you Dillon Gee.

Don't go posting stuff like that, someone important might see it and pull the trigger.

[weams]

Eduardo Rodriquez would get you Michael Cuddyer.

[Can_of_corn]

Eduardo Rodriquez would get you Michael Cuddyer.

He's from Norfolk VA, lots of good players from Norfolk.

[weams]

He's from Norfolk VA, lots of good players from Norfolk.

The guy from AZ was John Manuel. The one who like Bundy over Walker.