Olney - Orioles Facing a Run of Tough Choices

[Can_of_corn]

Just tickets...I would guess (don't know the avg. ticket price) at least 20M.

Was a rhetorical question but thanks anyway.

Average Ticket Price:

Orioles: $23.89

League: $27.73

[wildcard]

I agree with some of what Olney says but not all.

The O's should not have problems that force them to trade players in the short term. Their payroll next year could be in the 106m range and with revenue increases for attendance and additional TV money that should be something the O's can handle.

1) 15m Markakis -RF

2) 13m Jones - CF

3) 10m Davis - 1B

4) 10m J Johnson - Closer/RP1

5) 8.5m Feldman - SP1

6) 8m Wieters - C

7) 7.5m Hardy - SS

8) 5m McLouth - LF

9) 5m Norris - SP2

10) 5m David Murphy - LHDH

11) 4.072m Chen - SP3

12) 3.2m O'Day - RP2

13) 3m Hunter - RP3

14) 3m Rajai Davis - RHLF/UTOF

15) 2.5m Matusz - RP4

16) 1.8m Patton - RP5

17) 1m Roberts - SHARE 2B

18) .52m Tillman - SP4

19) .52m Valencia - DH

20) .51m Gonzalez - SP5

21) .5m Machado - 3B

22) .5m Flaherty - SHARE 2B

23) .5m Clevenger/Snyder/Teagarden - BU C

24) .5m Stinson - RP6

25) .5m S Johnson or McFarland or Britton - RP7

Total 106.622m

I agree that the long term contracts are what will cause the O's to make trades at some point. Boras asking for way more then the O's can support is a driver with Wieters and Davis.

If Markakis has a good year I can see the O's negotiating a 3 year deal in the 25m range for 2015-2017. But he has to show he is still worth 8m per year.

The O's could go 2/20m this off season with Johnson. Extending Hardy for 2015-2016 for 2/23m could work.

Cheap starters like Gausman, Bundy and McFarland could help hold down the payroll not this year but over the next few years.

I like that DD has cast a wide net on Wieters. Its good to try to get as much competition as possible. Who knows when and where it will leads.

[TradeAngelos]

Did anyone read the first line of Olney's article and think to themselves "wow, the Orioles payroll increased nearly 40% in 3+ years?"

For as much as we like to say Angelos is hoarding it, I think that fact kind of blows that out of the water. Not to mention the orioles have improved the stadium, hire better and more coaches, and invested in the ST complex in that time.

What??

Yeah it was a 40% increase from...NOTHING. Let's give Pete a pat on the back for bringing the payroll up off the floor!

LOL.

You might be the only person on the planet that came away with that thought, given the current financially handcuffed state of the franchise and the article explaining such.

[weams]

2011 attendance was 1,755,461.

2013 attendance was 2,357,551.

602,090 more tickets were sold for 2013.

How much more revenue is that?

25% ?

Not 40 %

I do believe we should be able to carry a 113 million dollar payroll comfortably.

[Can_of_corn]

17% ?

Not 40 %

Didn't say it was.

It does however take the edge off the increase.

[weams]

Didn't say it was.

It does however take the edge off the increase.

Yes. My math was wrong btw.

[TonySoprano]

Did anyone read the first line of Olney's article and think to themselves "wow, the Orioles payroll increased nearly 40% in 3+ years?"

For as much as we like to say Angelos is hoarding it, I think that fact kind of blows that out of the water. Not to mention the orioles have improved the stadium, hire better and more coaches, and invested in the ST complex in that time.

Opening Day Payroll numbers since 2000.

2000 $83,141,198

2001 $74,279,540

2002 $60,493,487

2003 $73,877,500

2004 $51,623,333

2005 $73,914,333

2006 $72,585,582

2007 $93,554,808

2008 $67,196,246

2009 $67,101,666

2010 $81,612,500

2011 $85,304,038

2012 $81,428,499

2013 $91,793,333

As you can see, the numbers ranged from $51M - $93M. I've said before, you can make numbers say any story you want. For example, why were the payroll figures in the MASN era (2007-2013) lower than they were in 2000 in four out of seven years (and 2011 is only $2M more than in 2000)?

You could say "look at the big jump in 2007," and the response would be "look at the huge decrease immediately after in 2008 and 2009."

[wildcard]

Opening Day Payroll numbers since 2000.

2000 $83,141,198

2001 $74,279,540

2002 $60,493,487

2003 $73,877,500

2004 $51,623,333

2005 $73,914,333

2006 $72,585,582

2007 $93,554,808

2008 $67,196,246

2009 $67,101,666

2010 $81,612,500

2011 $85,304,038

2012 $81,428,499

2013 $91,793,333

As you can see, the numbers ranged from $51M - $93M. I've said before, you can make numbers say any story you want. For example, why were the payroll figures in the MASN era (2007-2013) lower than they were in 2000 in four out of seven years (and 2011 is only $2M more than in 2000)?

You could say "look at the big jump in 2007," and the response would be "look at the huge decrease immediately after in 2008 and 2009."

Rebuilding teams don't cost as much.

[Can_of_corn]

Rebuilding teams don't cost as much.

Those teams cost too much to be truly rebuilding.

[wildcard]

Those teams cost too much to be truly rebuilding.

Yeah, but when you trade Bedard and Tejada your rebuilding is some sort of way.

[Can_of_corn]

Yeah, but when you trade Bedard and Tejada your rebuilding is some sort of way.

I agree that there were no shortage of half-way measures taken.

[notyourbuddy]

Total 106.622m

*snip*

Seems like the most realistic outcome as its both the safest and easiest. Though I think the O's ultimately balk at Feldman's 8.5$M/yr and instead go with something cheaper like Gausman. You know... toss out some PR line about how they want to retain some financial flexibility for when the July trade deadline rolls around.

That would leave you with a payroll of around 98$M (and they probably sprinkle a few mil here and there for reclamation projects to test in Spring Training/AAA [i.e., Gavin Floyd] ).

I think Roberts can get more than $1M. That seems reaaally low. Lots of teams could use a 2B and Roberts still has the potential to be a decent player especially on a 1yr deal.

[TonySoprano]

Rebuilding teams don't cost as much.

That doesn't answer my question why we spent more in 2000 than we did with the influx of MASN dollars.

[weams]

That doesn't answer my question why we spent more in 2000 than we did with the influx of MASN dollars.

Ok. Because. MASN was a cash out of half of the team's value. No matter what he told us. And they ain't giving that cash back.

[Rene88]

I think the Orioles are at a fork in the road and need to pick a path. The core of this team has a window to try to win it all. You either commit to going all-in with this core and adding the free agent talent necessary to win now, or you auction off Davis, Wieters, and Hardy and get more players for the next window.

Trying to walk the fine line between the two will only lead to disaster. Angelos also has to ask himself whether or not he ever wants to hold a WS Trophy or just cash.

If it were me, and I was a billionaire, I would go all in to try to win it all with this group. I would go to the mat to try to sign Cano, Morales, and a couple pitchers. You either want to win or you don't. Let's say signing these guys takes the payroll to $140m next year. I don't understand why the Orioles can't afford that. This past year we were at approximately $100m. There is an additional $25m coming from TV. If signing these guys added 500,000 to attendance at an average of $30 each walking through the door, that is another $15m. You could raise ticket prices a little bit and you would get more MASN $$$ too.

The entire purpose of the MASN deal w/MLB was to let us play with the big boys. How can the Nats have a $125m+ payroll when they own less than 20% of MASN. The media should not be giving Angelos a pass on this stuff.

My girlfriend and I recently took an official tour of Camden Yards. It was fine enough I guess but everyone was dark and they didn't even have a bathroom open in the entire park for us to use. I know this is a minor thing, but are you kidding me? This ownership is as cheap as they come....it is disgraceful.

What I don't understand is that Angelos is getting up there, does he realize he cannot transfer this money to the afterlife?

Regarding Weiters, I think he is so very overrated. In fact, I think if we basically keep the same team in tact and sign a decent veteran catcher, we make the playoffs. Some catchers just win-look at Pudge or R Wilson. A good veteran catch is worth his weight in gold.

Weiters is terribly overrated and Boras is a joke. Don't play his game, just trade him now for a good core of players. If you cannot get that, hang on to him but I think you can get an impressive return.

I would let JJ walk. If you can get something, even better. However, DD has already said we are picking up the option. I doubt he changes course there.

I say see what Crush does this year and then try an extension with him. Don't deal him now under any scenario IMO.