St Louis Post-Dispatch : Best Shortstop Fit for the Cardinals is JJ Hardy

[Redskins Rick]

He's in a different place than he was when he extended last time career wise. Much different. I don't doubt that he won't try to squeeze the last dollar out of the Orioles but he won't come cheap either. I assume you expect an extension before the season starts then if he's still an Oriole?

Thats a given, seeing what some of the fringe Free Agents are signing for, considering some teams are spending that new TV money on the player payroll.

[wildcard]

I think the harsh reality is that "the top of Hardy's game" for one year isn't worth someone like Shelby Miller.

I agree. Hardy has to be extended to make the deal work.

[srock]

Ask yourself if you'd be willing to trade Bundy for one year of Hardy. That's roughly what you think the Cardinals should do.

I see two keys to making a Hardy to St. Louis deal happen:

1. Contingency on Hardy signing an extension with the Cards
2. Orioles get a Major League ready starting pitcher who drops right into the rotation, so someone ahead of Gausman on the development curve

Without #1, Hardy is terrible value for St. Louis

Without #2, the whole trade is pointless from Baltimore's point of view.

I see no reason Baltimore couldn't kick in money or a prospect if needed.

[wildcard]

He's in a different place than he was when he extended last time career wise. Much different. I don't doubt that he won't try to squeeze the last dollar out of the Orioles but he won't come cheap either. I assume you expect an extension before the season starts then if he's still an Oriole?

Yes, I think the O's will extend before the 2014 season begins. Probably a two or three year extension to his 7.5M salary. He probably gets 11M to 13M per year depending on the number of years and what the market dictates.

[Stotle]

I agree. Hardy has to be extended to make the deal work.

33-36 year old Hardy could be ugly.

[srock]

33-36 year old Hardy could be ugly.

If this works out, that would be the Cardinals problem

But I agree in general, extending Hardy needs to be done very carefully.

Also worth considering Hardy's value as as 2B in a few years.

Hardy 2013 OPS: .738

Hardy career OPS: .740

MLB 2013 OPS

2b: .710

SS: .681

His bat won't play as well at 2B, but he still could be our best option there.

[Number5]

Some of the Cardinals spare parts would be big (and cheap) upgrades for Baltimore. One year of a strong defender, good power, poor on-base shortstop just isn't worth six years of a young, potential front end arm. If that's what Baltimore is demanding in return (I am sure it's not if they actually would like to move Hardy) then he'll be with Baltimore in 2014.

The boded is the whole key, IMO. I don't believe that the Orioles necessarily want to move Hardy. It is certain that the Cardinals would like a major upgrade at SS.

Personally, I think this whole scenario is a nonstarter. It came out that St. Louis would consider trading Miller for a top SS. The Orioles explored that and were told that they didn't mean Hardy. Both teams moved on.

Apparently, St. Louis put the Miller trade possibility out there to entice Colorado, but the Rockies understandably said no to a trade package involving Miller for Tulo.

The Orioles don't want to trade Hardy, but will if some team is willing to seriously overpay. The Cardinals don't want to trade Miller, but will if some team is willing to seriously overpay. There really is nothing to see here, and I believe that both teams have moved on and are working on other alternatives for their respective needs.

[wildcard]

33-36 year old Hardy could be ugly.

A three year extension for Hardy would be his 32-34 age years.

[Three Run Homer]

JJ Hardy is not going to get you Shelby Miller, but Lance Lynn is durable, hard-throwing, strikes out a man an inning with a decent K/BB, and is only 26. His ERA wasn't anything special in 2013 but his defense-independent ERA is considerably better than his ERA. He would be under team control for at least 3 more seasons. I'd expect him to slot in as the number two starter on the O's next season, behind Tillman.

David Freese is another good piece for the short term. He played hurt in 2013 and his power and defense fell off accordingly, but even in a down year he had a good OBP. Swapping Freese for Hardy in the lineup would move the O's offense in a favorable direction, because we should be willing to sacrifice a little power to improve the team's OBP.

Unless there are some negative medical or scouting reports on Lynn, I think Freese and Lynn for Hardy and a mid-tier prospect would be a fine trade for the O's.

[wildcard]

JJ Hardy is not going to get you Shelby Miller, but Lance Lynn is durable, hard-throwing, strikes out a man an inning with a decent K/BB, and is only 26. His ERA wasn't anything special in 2013 but his defense-independent ERA is considerably better than his ERA. He would be under team control for at least 3 more seasons. I'd expect him to slot in as the number two starter on the O's next season, behind Tillman.

David Freese is another good piece for the short term. He played hurt in 2013 and his power and defense fell off accordingly, but even in a down year he had a good OBP. Swapping Freese for Hardy in the lineup would move the O's offense in a favorable direction, because we should be willing to sacrifice a little power to improve the team's OBP.

Unless there are some negative medical or scouting reports on Lynn, I think Freese and Lynn for Hardy and a mid-tier prospect would be a fine trade for the O's.

When a starter goes from the NL to the AL East it is sometimes said that .5 has to be added to his ERA. That would move Lynn from 3.97 to 4.47. That is not what the O's need. I see no point is trading for Lynn.

[Scrat1]

I love Hardy and would be quite happy if he were our shortstop in 2013, but this thread is ridiculous. Miller has significantly more value than Hardy. The only people who think otherwise are posting in this thread.

[Stotle]

When a starter goes from the NL to the AL East it is sometimes said that .5 has to be added to his ERA. That would move Lynn from 3.97 to 4.47. That is not what the O's need. I see no point is trading for Lynn.

1. Can't make a blanket statement like that (Scherzer, Sanchez, Kuroda, Correia, etc.)

2. ERA is not an appropriate stat for measuring a pitcher's contribution if you're drilling down to the level where you are trying to predict performance.

[Stotle]

A three year extension for Hardy would be his 32-34 age years.

Splitting hairs -- he turns in-season. Point is exact same. Baltimore got its surpluss value from Hardy. Absolutely no reason to pay market price for him as he enters his mid-30s.

[Spy Fox]

If you think the Cardinals need to give more than Miller to get Hardy, do you also think the Orioles would have to give Kevin Gausman + others if they were trading for, say, Torii Hunter? Or Ian Desmond?

[Number5]

I love Hardy and would be quite happy if he were our shortstop in 2013, but this thread is ridiculous. Miller has significantly more value than Hardy. The only people who think otherwise are posting in this thread.

Of course Miller has more value. Nobody is saying otherwise.

What is being said, quite plainly and clearly, is that if the Cardinals are not willing to pay the premium (i.e. the value difference between Miller and Hardy) then the Orioles have no reason to trade Hardy to them. The Cardinals are the ones that are seeking to fill this specific need in a push for a championship. Top shortstops are not easy to find. Trading Hardy for "equal value" in pitching would create a much bigger hole to fill in the lineup than the current hole in pitching, since those pitchers "equaling" Hardy's value are not pitchers that would push the Orioles up to the next level. That value in pitching is available both in free agency and via trades with other clubs not involving Hardy. A shortstop of Hardy's value is not as readily available. The Orioles have no reason to make an equal-value trade with the Cardinals in this case.

No deal is clearly the most likely scenario here, and is a logical outcome for both teams involved. The most illogical outcome for the Orioles would be to trade Hardy for "equal value".