St Louis Post-Dispatch : Best Shortstop Fit for the Cardinals is JJ Hardy

[hoosiers]

I would be happy if the Os haul from dealing Hardy to the Cards centered on Piscotty with perhaps one more prospect inside their top 10 and perhaps a third prospect toward the bottom of their system in the top 15-20.

That lets the Cards keep basically everyone from their 25 man plus their top three prospects while the Os get a good replacement for Markakis for 2015 if not sooner plus a chance on a couple other parts.

[Migrant Redbird]

I think this trade just reveals that Mozeliak knows what he is doing, regardless what the fan on the street thinks.

I think a lot of fans are gradually reaching the conclusion that Mozeliak has been a very good GM. As one put it, he traded an aging Jim Edmunds for the 2011 Championship and now he's traded an aging David Freese for the next Jim Edmunds. (Yes, we know Bourjos will never win any Silver Slugger awards.)

The worst move he's made -- signing Wigginton for the bench last season to provide some pop off the bench. At least he knew enough to cut his losses, releasing Wigginton halfway through the first year of a 2 year contract and eating the $5M loss.

[isestrex]

To be fair, Wigginton was an All Star.

[Number5]

I think a lot of fans are gradually reaching the conclusion that Mozeliak has been a very good GM. As one put it, he traded an aging Jim Edmunds for the 2011 Championship and now he's traded an aging David Freese for the next Jim Edmunds. (Yes, we know Bourjos will never win any Silver Slugger awards.)

The worst move he's made -- signing Wigginton for the bench last season to provide some pop off the bench. At least he knew enough to cut his losses, releasing Wigginton halfway through the first year of a 2 year contract and eating the $5M loss.

Yes, he has been very impressive. He sure took Dipito to school on the Freese deal, IMO.

[clapdiddy]

Yes, he has been very impressive. He sure took Dipito to school on the Freese deal, IMO.

Yes...he sure did. Makes me thankful we weren't lucky enough to hire DiPoto!

[Morgan423]

Trades are rarely, if ever, a straight-line value proposition. Need is a major consideration in any trade. So is the supply and demand situation. In this case, the Cardinals have an acknowledged need for a SS. The Orioles are not actively seeking to rid themselves of Hardy. The Orioles are in a position where, when offered a trade for Hardy, they can say that he is only available in exchange for a clear premium in value. This happens often. The Cardinals, in turn, must decide if filling their pressing need at shortstop with Hardy is worth paying the premium in value necessary to complete the deal. The Orioles have zero reason in this situation to accept equal value. So, yes, I think it is a fair deal, given that the true alternative in this case is no deal. Now, if St. Louis isn't willing to pay that premium, and feel that they would be better served filling their shortstop hole thru the obviously inflated free agent market we are seeing this off-season, then that is the way they should go.

Going through the thread for the 1st time, and honestly only a third through, but this is exactly correct as far as where the overall O's - Cards / potential Hardy trade situation is. Not sure what was said in the second two thirds of the thread but I doubt it was needed after this post.

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[Stotle]

Going through the thread for the 1st time, and honestly only a third through, but this is exactly correct as far as where the overall O's - Cards / potential Hardy trade situation is. Not sure what was said in the second two thirds of the thread but I doubt it was needed after this post.

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Except that it ignores that Hardy's value on a non-playoff team is essentially nothing. And also that he could very well accept a qualifying offer. So the alternative the Baltimore not trading him could realistically be a solid 3-4 WAR season for a third or fourth place team.

Now, you also have to take into account other options for both teams, weigh those options and the potential outcomes, and then you start to get closer to determining ultimate leverage. It's certainly not "Baltimore in the driver's seat."

[tntoriole]

Except that it ignores that Hardy's value on a non-playoff team is essentially nothing. And also that he could very well accept a qualifying offer. So the alternative the Baltimore not trading him could realistically be a solid 3-4 WAR season for a third or fourth place team.

Now, you also have to take into account other options for both teams, weigh those options and the potential outcomes, and then you start to get closer to determining ultimate leverage. It's certainly not "Baltimore in the driver's seat."

I would be much happier with JJ Hardy at short in 2014, than JJ Hardy extended in St. Louis and us with Lance Lynn and no one to play either third or short at the moment (given Manny's injury.).

[weams]

Except that it ignores that Hardy's value on a non-playoff team is essentially nothing. And also that he could very well accept a qualifying offer. So the alternative the Baltimore not trading him could realistically be a solid 3-4 WAR season for a third or fourth place team.

Now, you also have to take into account other options for both teams, weigh those options and the potential outcomes, and then you start to get closer to determining ultimate leverage. It's certainly not "Baltimore in the driver's seat."

You would indicate however, to a contending team with a shortstop problem, getting a year of Hardy at half value and the opportunity for another at value if he is healthy is a nice trade nugget for Baltimore to have.

[OsLuvrInKy]

Except that it ignores that Hardy's value on a non-playoff team is essentially nothing. And also that he could very well accept a qualifying offer. So the alternative the Baltimore not trading him could realistically be a solid 3-4 WAR season for a third or fourth place team.

Now, you also have to take into account other options for both teams, weigh those options and the potential outcomes, and then you start to get closer to determining ultimate leverage. It's certainly not "Baltimore in the driver's seat."

Well the Cards sure are not in the drivers seat either. Whether you want to say it or not, they want the upgrade at SS not us. Last time I looked we have a very good SS.

[ScottP]

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/42448/fielder-for-kinsler-cano-to-rangers-now

Speculation that Rangers may go for Cano, then swap Profar to STL for Taveras

[Stotle]

Well the Cards sure are not in the drivers seat either. Whether you want to say it or not, they want the upgrade at SS not us. Last time I looked we have a very good SS.

St. Louis was in the World Series last year without Hardy. They have half a dozen young players that contributed significantly and could be better this year. They have arguably the best hit tool in the minors yet to debut.

We actually have no idea how to figure actual leverage, because we don't know what realistic options St Louis has. It's an org that thinks around issues, not Mad Libs "we have a blank, how should we fill it." For all we know they could clear Holliday's salary, put together a big package for Tulo, and so with Craig/Burjeous/Taveras/Jay in the outfield.

[Stotle]

You would indicate however, to a contending team with a shortstop problem, getting a year of Hardy at half value and the opportunity for another at value if he is healthy is a nice trade nugget for Baltimore to have.

Oh sure it is. But the nature of pitching in today's game means you just aren't likely to get a cost-controlled potential front-end arm for 1 year of a very good, but flawed, 31 yr old shortstop. Certainly not from an org like the Cardinals.

[Stotle]

I would be much happier with JJ Hardy at short in 2014, than JJ Hardy extended in St. Louis and us with Lance Lynn and no one to play either third or short at the moment (given Manny's injury.).

Why does the second option not include any solution for ss or 3b? Is Baltimore only permitted to make one move this off-season?

[tntoriole]

Posters act as if:

1. J.J. Hardy is the only SS upgrade available to the Cardinals

2. The Cardinals can't win a WS without unless they get a top SS

I really do not care if the Cardinals upgrade at shortstop or not or if they win another World Series or not as I am sure they do not care about the Orioles either. I would just as soon keep Hardy than trade him for "value" that essentially removes any chance of contending in 2014 which is how I would view a straight up trade for Lance Lynn (with or without table scrap prospects and Lynn). If they don't want to deal for Hardy for premium value, then I respect that too and they can go to one of the many other Gold Glove, Silver Slugger inexpensive shortstop free agents out there or watch Kozmas play in 2014. I may have considered Lynn, Freese and a mid level prospect for Hardy (contingent on being extended) as a potentially workable trade, but now that is not possible and anything of any lesser value is not in the Orioles best interests IMHO.