Samardzija for Wieters? Roch dreaming of Samardzija throwing to Saltalamacchia for Orioles

[Number5]

Do we really want Castro? He had the same abysmal OBP as Wieters in 2013. I like Machados D and bat better at 3B.

Next year Samardija will really sign, and if on a winning team will get 15+ wins. Book it. His stuff is too good. 200 innings, 200 K's

AND VERY LOW MILAGE ON HIS ARM.

Castillo, not Castro. Wellington Castillo is the Cubs catcher.

Seems like a lot of folks think Samardzija will break out. Could be, who knows?

Frankly, I think the Cubs might be better served waiting on dealing him. If he does start out hot, his trader value will shoot up. In any case they may do better if they pull the trigger on a deal before the deadline. They would probably get better prospects then, even if Samardzija has the same type of numbers as he had this year, as teams in the hunt that need a SP due to injury, or whatever, will pay more at that point due to the fact that they are in the playoff race than they will now.

[andrewrickli]

Castillo, not Castro. Wellington Castillo is the Cubs catcher.

Seems like a lot of folks think Samardzija will break out. Could be, who knows?

Frankly, I think the Cubs might be better served waiting on dealing him. If he does start out hot, his trader value will shoot up. In any case they may do better if they pull the trigger on a deal before the deadline. They would probably get better prospects then, even if Samardzija has the same type of numbers as he had this year, as teams in the hunt that need a SP due to injury, or whatever, will pay more at that point due to the fact that they are in the playoff race than they will now.

I agree. But they run the risk of him having a poor first half like he usually does in his career.

I think he's traded this offseason. The BlueJays are a team to watch, Anthopolous loves to make deals.

[CA-ORIOLE]

For you and CA-Oriole to pretend that ERA is a meaningless stat and that Samardzija's heretofore OK career should be ignored in favor of his perceived upside is a bit of a head-in-the-sand approach, IMO. ERA and ERA+ do, in fact, have meaning, especially as the sample size increases. Samardzija's results are no longer in a small sample size, and have come in the National League. Samardzija's best results have come as a reliever, which is not at all unusual. His stats as a SP are as I quoted, as shown on the link I provided. He is not an ace. He is not a near-ace. He will be 29 years old the next time he pitches. He is a free agent in 2 years. These are all very real factors that the Orioles, or any team considering trading for him, must consider. Yes, they should also weigh the possibilities of him breaking out and yet becoming an ace or near-ace, but in this discussion upside certainly favors Bundy/Gausman..

I'd say the head in the sand approach is parroting ERA as you and some others have throughout most of this thread. Glad you've at least moved on to ERA+. Most of your analysis here is just wrong, if not misleading. His performance (ERA) as a reliever is only marginally better than as a starter. This would be the case for almost any pitcher anyways as pretty much all pitchers will do better as relievers than starters. His peripherals are actually better as a starter. He's essentially only pitched the last 2 years as a starter. During that 2 years his walk rate has significantly improved while his K rate has increased. This while significantly increasing his GB%, particularly last year. Additionally he doesn't seem to have strong platoon splits. All those are pretty positive signs, and while I generally favor ERA+ for SP's over DIPS myself, your analysis that Samardzija has somehow "established his record" is pretty short sighted imo.

I'm guessing you haven't seen him pitch. Like Isestrex said, the scouting reports are high on him for a reason. His stuff is impressive. At 28/29 I'm not too concerned about his age considering the development factors. The strategy here is to try and capture a couple potentially very good years and maybe get Garza type production out of this guy at a fraction of the cost of a Garza. Will that work? I don't know. The HR rate is concerning to me and anybody transitioning to be a sinkerballer is a tough gig. Only saying the potential/upside is there if you take off the ERA blinders for a minute.

[andrewrickli]

I'd say the head in the sand approach is parroting ERA as you and some others have throughout most of this thread. Glad you've at least moved on to ERA+. Most of your analysis here is just wrong, if not misleading. His performance (ERA) as a reliever is only marginally better than as a starter. This would be the case for almost any pitcher anyways as pretty much all pitchers will do better as relievers than starters. His peripherals are actually better as a starter. He's essentially only pitched the last 2 years as a starter. During that 2 years his walk rate has significantly improved while his K rate has increased. This while significantly increasing his GB%, particularly last year. Additionally he doesn't seem to have strong platoon splits. All those are pretty positive signs, and while I generally favor ERA+ for SP's over DIPS myself, your analysis that Samardzija has somehow "established his record" is pretty short sighted imo.

I'm guessing you haven't seen him pitch. Like Isestrex said, the scouting reports are high on him for a reason. His stuff is impressive. At 28/29 I'm not too concerned about his age considering the development factors. The strategy here is to try and capture a couple potentially very good years and maybe get Garza type production out of this guy at a fraction of the cost of a Garza. Will that work? I don't know. The HR rate is concerning to me and anybody transitioning to be a sinkerballer is a tough gig. Only saying the potential/upside is there if you take off the ERA blinders for a minute.

The guy is filthy. Imagine a rotation with Samardzija and Garza. We instantly have one of the best rotations in the AL.

[andrewrickli]

To my above post, NO this wouldn't be a "mini Jays" way of doing things. This might beef up our team chemistry, Garza and Samardzija were teammates with the Cubbies. Have a top three of Garza, Samardzija and Tillman is dangerous.

[section18]

Buck is saying more and more that you've got to have pitching to win. I am confident DD can obtain Samardzija and think it will happen. How much will it take to sign Garza. Haven't really seen any rumors of the amount he is trying to get in a new contract. If we were able to sign him and Kazmir we could be looking at;

Garza, Samardzija, Tillman, Chen or Gonzalez and Kazmir, I am not a big Chen fan and would package him in the right deal. He would be a fit for the Angels who want a starter for Trumbo. I can tell you right now fans would not have to wonder which games they wanted to go to at OP in 2014 based on who was pitching with this starting 5. I usually go to 20-25 games a season and admit there are games I might trade my tickets to for another game based on who was pitching for us on certain days. Not with that rotation.

Garza, Samardzija, Tillman, Gonzalez and Kazmir would be electric. Tillman, Gonzalez and Kazmir facing other teams #3, #4 and #5 starters would help them a lot. Would DD have the drive to add three new starters? Probably not but can see him adding two. Norris is not in this lineup and could be used out of the pen, fill in for a starter or traded.

If we don't sign Garza the rotation would still look really good with;

Tillman, Samardzija, Gonzalez, Norris and Kazmir. I think Wallace will help the last three go longer in games.

Pitching, Pitching, Pitching!

[Pickles]

I'd say the head in the sand approach is parroting ERA as you and some others have throughout most of this thread. Glad you've at least moved on to ERA+. Most of your analysis here is just wrong, if not misleading.

Just because people such as myself point out his results have been less than stellar doesn't mean we don't understand advanced metrics for pitchers. We're just pointing out the obvious.

His performance (ERA) as a reliever is only marginally better than as a starter. This would be the case for almost any pitcher anyways as pretty much all pitchers will do better as relievers than starters. His peripherals are actually better as a starter.

In what bizarro world is this true?

His K:BB rate is better- due mainly to much improved control. I don't think that can/should be attributed to his move to the rotation.

However, he gives up a lot more Hs per 9 and 2x as many HRs. Not to mention his ERA is likewise significantly worse.

He's essentially only pitched the last 2 years as a starter. During that 2 years his walk rate has significantly improved while his K rate has increased. This while significantly increasing his GB%, particularly last year. Additionally he doesn't seem to have strong platoon splits. All those are pretty positive signs, and while I generally favor ERA+ for SP's over DIPS myself, your analysis that Samardzija has somehow "established his record" is pretty short sighted imo.

He's shown a lot of growth over the last 2 years.

Besides the fact that he was, you know, worse last season than the year before.

I'm guessing you haven't seen him pitch. Like Isestrex said, the scouting reports are high on him for a reason. His stuff is impressive. At 28/29 I'm not too concerned about his age considering the development factors. The strategy here is to try and capture a couple potentially very good years and maybe get Garza type production out of this guy at a fraction of the cost of a Garza. Will that work? I don't know. The HR rate is concerning to me and anybody transitioning to be a sinkerballer is a tough gig. Only saying the potential/upside is there if you take off the ERA blinders for a minute.

I'm sure his stuff is impressive.

That doesn't change the results that have been pretty middling.

The league is full of guys w impressive stuff who don't have the results to match.

To trade for one, and pay for the "ace" results is foolish imo.

And yes, he's a "fraction" of the cost of Garza. Does that take into account the GG All-star catcher you're shipping out to obtain him? Or the (not that I think you're so foolish) the TWO Ps selected in the top 5 in the last three years that others have so insanely suggested?

[Roll Tide]

Buck is saying more and more that you've got to have pitching to win. I am confident DD can obtain Samardzija and think it will happen. How much will it take to sign Garza. Haven't really seen any rumors of the amount he is trying to get in a new contract. If we were able to sign him and Kazmir we could be looking at;

Garza, Samardzija, Tillman, Chen or Gonzalez and Kazmir, I am not a big Chen fan and would package him in the right deal. He would be a fit for the Angels who want a starter for Trumbo. I can tell you right now fans would not have to wonder which games they wanted to go to at OP in 2014 based on who was pitching with this starting 5. I usually go to 20-25 games a season and admit there are games I might trade my tickets to for another game based on who was pitching for us on certain days. Not with that rotation.

Garza, Samardzija, Tillman, Gonzalez and Kazmir would be electric. Tillman, Gonzalez and Kazmir facing other teams #3, #4 and #5 starters would help them a lot. Would DD have the drive to add three new starters? Probably not but can see him adding two. Norris is not in this lineup and could be used out of the pen, fill in for a starter or traded.

If we don't sign Garza the rotation would still look really good with;

Tillman, Samardzija, Gonzalez, Norris and Kazmir. I think Wallace will help the last three go longer in games.

Pitching, Pitching, Pitching!

You don't think Chen would benefit from pitching against the fours and fives?

[EagleOriole]

Ehh, other than agreeing about not wanting to trade Bundy/Gaussman this is jibberish centered around ERA. If you can't separate Samardzija's stuff/stats/upside from guys like Feldman and Norris then you just don't know what you're looking at .... imo.

Stuff/stats/upside vs. results. I will take results for $1000 Alex. C'mon, why is his upside going to be fulfilled when he hasn't done anything in the ML that is remotely close to TOR or Ace. I for one have had enough of waiting around for upside to be fulfilled.

[Can_of_corn]

You don't think Chen would benefit from pitching against the fours and fives?

Within a couple weeks he would be facing ones and threes.

[Mondo Trasho]

I think we're just going to have to bite the bullet on this Wieters thing. Nobody is going to give us anything of value for him and he's not worth what he'll probably get on the free agent market. So just keep him until he leaves and take the draft pick. There's really no other options here.

I have no faith in this organization's ability to develop pitchers, so I think we should get that idea out of our heads about Bundy and Gausman. They may one day be great...just not with the Orioles.

If we want quality pitching we'll have to find it via the "diamonds in the rough" like Gonzalez. Not pin all our hopes and dreams on draft picks or blockbuster trades or free agency.

[MarylandAaron]

Doesn't Jef Samardzija have like a 4.30 career ERA? No thanks - not sure why we trade a very good defensive catcher with power for an average SP...we have average starting pitchers in spades.

Exactly. If we're going to trade Wieters, it's going to have to be in a deal for a legitimate ace, which Samardzija isn't. I know Wieters' offense is frustrating at times, but overall he is an extremely valuable asset to the team and would be difficult to replace.

[Number5]

I'd say the head in the sand approach is parroting ERA as you and some others have throughout most of this thread. Glad you've at least moved on to ERA+. Most of your analysis here is just wrong, if not misleading. His performance (ERA) as a reliever is only marginally better than as a starter. This would be the case for almost any pitcher anyways as pretty much all pitchers will do better as relievers than starters. His peripherals are actually better as a starter. He's essentially only pitched the last 2 years as a starter. During that 2 years his walk rate has significantly improved while his K rate has increased. This while significantly increasing his GB%, particularly last year. Additionally he doesn't seem to have strong platoon splits. All those are pretty positive signs, and while I generally favor ERA+ for SP's over DIPS myself, your analysis that Samardzija has somehow "established his record" is pretty short sighted imo.

I'm guessing you haven't seen him pitch. Like Isestrex said, the scouting reports are high on him for a reason. His stuff is impressive. At 28/29 I'm not too concerned about his age considering the development factors. The strategy here is to try and capture a couple potentially very good years and maybe get Garza type production out of this guy at a fraction of the cost of a Garza. Will that work? I don't know. The HR rate is concerning to me and anybody transitioning to be a sinkerballer is a tough gig. Only saying the potential/upside is there if you take off the ERA blinders for a minute.

The stats I quoted are certainly not wrong. They are his exact stats. No stretching. No misleading. No what-ifs. Just the facts. FYI, "head-in-the-sand" refers to a fear of seeing what is really and actually happening -- as in real-life game results -- and instead dwelling on what one hopes might happen -- as in projections.

I understand that you are sold on Samardzija's upside. That is painfully obvious. Fortunately, all indications are that DD well-remembers Arrieta, and is unlikely to pay through the nose for “stuff” when the results haven’t matched that promise.

As I said, just as the Orioles are not going to get a trade offer based on Wieters' other-worldly scouting projections, the Cubs aren't likely to get offered a trade based on Samardzija being an ace, until such time as he is, in fact, an ace. Make no mistake -- he is not an ace.

Sure, Samardzija may take the next step. But he has not as of yet. Just as we hoped Wieters would. And Matusz. And Arrieta. And Britton. How about Josh Bell? How about the Cubs' can't-miss Felix Pie and Vitters? There are many, many players that have not lived up to glowing scouting reports and projections. Just look back at BA's top 100 each year for the past 10 years or so. In any case, I have no desire to trade high-upside top prospects for 2 years of a guy who is turning 29 when I am being asked to base most of his value on upside potential. If upside potential is what I want, I'll just keep my highly rated guys, thank you very much.

Now, a deal not involving a Bundy or Gausman would be something to talk about, but from what I've read, the Cubs want top pitching prospects only, so such a deal looks doubtful. A trade involving Wieters might make some sense, but it appears unlikely to me that a package that would work for both sides can be found.

I think that the Cubs will most likely have Samardzija on their team this year.

[weams]

The stats I quoted are certainly not wrong. They are his exact stats. No stretching. No misleading. No what-ifs. Just the facts. FYI, "head-in-the-sand" refers to a fear of seeing what is really and actually happening -- as in real-life game results -- and instead dwelling on what one hopes might happen -- as in projections.

I understand that you are sold on Samardzija's upside. That is painfully obvious. Fortunately, all indications are that DD well-remembers Arrieta, and is unlikely to pay through the nose for “stuff” when the results haven’t matched that promise.

As I said, just as the Orioles are not going to get a trade offer based on Wieters' other-worldly scouting projections, the Cubs aren't likely to get offered a trade based on Samardzija being an ace, until such time as he is, in fact, an ace. Make no mistake -- he is not an ace.

Sure, Samardzija may take the next step. But he has not as of yet. Just as we hoped Wieters would. And Matusz. And Arrieta. And Britton. How about Josh Bell? How about the Cubs' can't-miss Felix Pie and Vitters? There are many, many players that have not lived up to glowing scouting reports and projections. Just look back at BA's top 100 each year for the past 10 years or so. In any case, I have no desire to trade high-upside top prospects for 2 years of a guy who is turning 29 when I am being asked to base most of his value on upside potential. If upside potential is what I want, I'll just keep my highly rated guys, thank you very much.

Now, a deal not involving a Bundy or Gausman would be something to talk about, but from what I've read, the Cubs want top pitching prospects only, so such a deal looks doubtful. A trade involving Wieters might make some sense, but it appears unlikely to me that a package that would work for both sides can be found.

I think that the Cubs will most likely have Samardzija on their team this year.

Samardzija and Arrieta are not good comps.

[Number5]

Samardzija and Arrieta are not good comps.

Didn't say they were. I was simply referring to his reference to "stuff". We all know about Jake's "stuff", but we also know the frustration of it not translating into game results for us.