Jump to content

Overrated = Brian Roberts?


Pruke

Recommended Posts

I don't see what that has to do with the thread topic.

It's a cheap, trolling jab at those of us who refer to Brian Roberts as an all-star 2B. When I use AS 2B, it is to imply that BRob is in the upper echelon of 2B - perhaps not the best, but in the top three to seven. I think the overwhelming majority of posters here understand the reference.

In this case, the other poster seems to want to distort such references to suit his purpose. I would recommend putting him on ignore.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 118
  • Created
  • Last Reply
It has everything to do with the thread topic.

Being a former All-Star doesn't make Danys Baez worth more than he would be otherwise. (Which as we stand here today is basically nothing in either case.)

And the same logic holds for Brian Roberts too.

So anytime I see someone here respond to a trade idea with a comment like "that's not enough for an All-Star 2B," I know right away that that person isn't viewing the situation rationally, but is instead artificially inflating Roberts' value for the All-Star factor. That's just not pertinent to the analysis.

davearm, please. You're a Cubs fan, with the Cubs interests at heart. I'm not faulting you for it, but I will say that I find your opinions to be somewhat slanted when it comes to valuating anything Orioles - especially with respect to the Roberts to Cubs scenario.

Not to be entirely negative - I do find your analysis on most things to be well stated and valuable, I just don't buy into your take on this scenario.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Then the O's should have no trouble finding lots of trade interest around baseball for their All-Star reliever Danys Baez, right?

I doubt if they would, if his All Star season had been 2007 instead of 2005 and if he'd saved 41 games and posted a 2.86 ERA last year. The $10M that he's owed for 2008 and 2009 would look like a relative bargain for several teams.

Nice little red herring there but, as Pruke said, it has zero to do with the current thread and, as hoosiers said, it's trolling.

As I said before, being an All Star is not a meaningless honor. It's even relevant in Brian's case because he was an All Star in 2005 AND 2007. There are many other ways to evaluate Brian better, but being the O's All Star rep last year remains meaningful.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If you guys only had enough to give up to warrant Bedard and Roberts, you might be in good shape again in the Central.

I'm not sure that anyone has enough to give up to snag both Bedard and Roberts in the same deal, unless we threw in Pujols. You know that ain't gonna happen.

If the Cubs and Brewers sputter around most of the season the way they did in 2007 and if Pujols doesn't require TJ surgery on his elbow and if Ankiel turns out to be the real Roy Hobbs and if Izturis and Kennedy post career years in 2008 and if Carpenter and Mulder are back on the mound pitching as well as they ever did and if Wainwright doesn't confirm his reputation for fragility is warranted and if Isringhausen's hip doesn't break down again and if Franklin and Wellemeyer are as lucky in 2008 as 2007 and if the Cardinals trainers can keep the plantar fasciitis of Glaus and Pujols in check and if Yadi Molina continues to progress with the bat the way he did in 2007 and if Jason La Rue can find enough hits in his bat that La Russa doesn't play Yadi into the ground, and if Brian Barton wins the center field job and can transfer his .417 minor league career OBP into the Cardinals lead off position, and, and, and .....

Get the picture? An incredibly large number of things have to go right for the Cardinals in 2008.

But if you believe, then you understand why Tony La Russa can tell a Post Dispatch reporter that (Bernie's Pressbox)

[La Russa] says this year "we have less margin for error." And agreed with my statement that the Cardinals need more things to go right than the teams they are competing against. But he thinks if they have the right approach, and play smart and execute, they'll be competitive. He said, "Baseball rewards intensity applied relentlessly on a daily basis and I think we're going to have a hungry club." He thinks they'll listen to the coaches and really execute well. He likes being in the underdog role.

.... On management, this offseason, whether [La Russa] feels misled or is disappointed... "One move I thought we should make that we didn't make this offseason. But it wasn't major. All other things, I've agreed with." He has no problems with their offseason approach. He accepts where the team is right now. He likes the idea that his team will have to play smarter, tougher baseball to make up some of the differences.

Sure, Tony! I understand that this year is the first time in several years that the response to Cardinals season ticket sales wasn't overwhelming, and you've got to talk up a good game, but I also know that's mostly bull feces coming out of your mouth.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Then the O's should have no trouble finding lots of trade interest around baseball for their All-Star reliever Danys Baez, right?

Well, its a little difficult drumming up interest for someone who had surgery and is out for the year...wouldn't you agree?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I doubt if they would, if his All Star season had been 2007 instead of 2005 and if he'd saved 41 games and posted a 2.86 ERA last year. The $10M that he's owed for 2008 and 2009 would look like a relative bargain for several teams.

Nice little red herring there but, as Pruke said, it has zero to do with the current thread and, as hoosiers said, it's trolling.

As I said before, being an All Star is not a meaningless honor. It's even relevant in Brian's case because he was an All Star in 2005 AND 2007. There are many other ways to evaluate Brian better, but being the O's All Star rep last year remains meaningful.

Mike Williams was a 32 year old reliever for the Pirates in 2002. He pitched pretty darn well and made the all star team. He made it again the next year... and wouldja look at these fantastic numbers?

Year Ag Tm  Lg  W   L   G   GS  CG SHO  GF SV   IP     H    R   ER   HR  BB   SO  HBP  WP  BFP  IBB  BK  ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP2002 32 PIT NL   2   6  59   0   0   0  59 46   61.3   54   24   20   6   21   43   1   2   258   3   0  2.93  4.24  144 1.223 AS2003 33 TOT NL   1   7  68   0   0   0  47 28   63.0   66   44   43   5   41   39   4   2   299   6   0  6.14  4.21   69 1.698 AS

He was traded to the Phillies midseason on account of being horrible. He was out of the league the year after being an all star. Are you really going to pretend that simply being an all star rep is meaningful by itself? Cause I can keep pulling some of these examples out.

Players aren't valuable because people think they're all stars. Most every year you can look at the roster and find at least 3-4 players that have no business being there. The only thing that matters is production, and all star appearances don't have the highest correlation available for evaluating that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Mike Williams .... He was traded to the Phillies midseason on account of being horrible. He was out of the league the year after being an all star. Are you really going to pretend that simply being an all star rep is meaningful by itself? Cause I can keep pulling some of these examples out..

Knock yourself out, if you want to look even sillier. I don't care what kind of scouting and statistics you use to evaluate a player, you have no guarantee of what his performance is going to be the next season. I have no problem agreeing that there are better measurands of a player's worth than an all star selection or two (when we get into 10 or 15 selections, it's a little different story), but to argue that an all star selection isn't "meaningful" is just totally and absolutely ridiculous. Why are you and davearm wasting your time on such a pathetic argument?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Knock yourself out, if you want to look even sillier. I don't care what kind of scouting and statistics you use to evaluate a player, you have no guarantee of what his performance is going to be the next season. I have no problem agreeing that there are better measurands of a player's worth than an all star selection or two (when we get into 10 or 15 selections, it's a little different story), but to argue that an all star selection isn't "meaningful" is just totally and absolutely ridiculous. Why are you and davearm wasting your time on such a pathetic argument?

It's just one of those silly arguments that drives me crazy. It's like when people talk about how a pitcher is a 20 game winner, or refer to somebody as a 100 RBI guy. Or perhaps worst, when people think leadoff hitter is a position... ugh.

It might mean something, but it's blown so far out of proportion that it really doesn't mean what people think it does at this point.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It might mean something, but it's blown so far out of proportion that it really doesn't mean what people think it does at this point.

Why are you taking it so seriously? If it doesn't provide any useful information to you, which it probably doesn't, then just ignore those comments. Find something more meaningful to criticize.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Why are you taking it so seriously? If it doesn't provide any useful information to you, which it probably doesn't, then just ignore those comments. Find something more meaningful to criticize.

What? Like criticizing what somebody else criticizes?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

No Brian is not overrated.

I think that rating Brian as a leadoff hitter in 2007 he rated in 6th overall in a group the included MVP Rollins, Suzuki (.396 OBP), Sizemore (.390 OBP), Reyes (78 SB), Hanley Ramirez (.386 OBP), Roberts (.377 OBP), Granderson (.361 OBP)

As a leadoff hitter that had 600 at bats, Brian rated 4th in OBP and and 3rd in steals. That is pretty heady company.

As a second baseman Brian rated 1st in SB, 4th in OBP, and 5th in runs scored.

Considering that Roberts' game is speed and stealing ability from the leadoff spot, that makes Brian one valuable guy.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

No Brian is not overrated.

I think that rating Brian as a leadoff hitter in 2007 he rated in 6th overall in a group the included MVP Rollins, Suzuki (.396 OBP), Sizemore (.390 OBP), Reyes (78 SB), Hanley Ramirez (.386 OBP), Roberts (.377 OBP), Granderson (.361 OBP)

As a leadoff hitter that had 600 at bats, Brian rated 4th in OBP and and 3rd in steals. That is pretty heady company.

As a second baseman Brian rated 1st in SB, 4th in OBP, and 5th in runs scored.

Considering that Roberts' game is speed and stealing ability from the leadoff spot, that makes Brian one valuable guy.

And to think if Roberts had better players hitting behind him his numbers would be even better.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

UZR measures runs saved compared to average right?

A number of -4 would seem to indicate that Roberts is not all that bad, and him being the 3rd worst in the AL is more a product of the AL having above-average defensive second basemen as a whole.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Shackleford, thanks so much for writing all that out. It's a lot of food for a lot of thought! :002_shappy:

I think my door is still basically shut to the importance of D stats, but maybe I'm just being ignorant and painting with a wide brush.

Gracias

Link to comment
Share on other sites

davearm, please. You're a Cubs fan, with the Cubs interests at heart. I'm not faulting you for it, but I will say that I find your opinions to be somewhat slanted when it comes to valuating anything Orioles - especially with respect to the Roberts to Cubs scenario.

Not to be entirely negative - I do find your analysis on most things to be well stated and valuable, I just don't buy into your take on this scenario.

Let me ask you this Pruke.

The rumored deal for Roberts was Gallagher + Marshall + Cedeno.

Now let's imagine for a minute that you think that's fair. I don't know if you feel that way, but for our purposes here it doesn't really matter. Assume you do.

So my question for you is this. Which of those guys do the Cubs get to keep if Roberts had been snubbed for the allstar team? (Something that happens to outstanding players every year.)

See? The allstar selection itself isn't meaningful to this trade discussion.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.


×
×
  • Create New...