Overrated = Brian Roberts?

[Flosman]

It has everything to do with the thread topic.

Being a former All-Star doesn't make Danys Baez worth more than he would be otherwise. (Which as we stand here today is basically nothing in either case.)

And the same logic holds for Brian Roberts too.

So anytime I see someone here respond to a trade idea with a comment like "that's not enough for an All-Star 2B," I know right away that that person isn't viewing the situation rationally, but is instead artificially inflating Roberts' value for the All-Star factor. That's just not pertinent to the analysis.

Dave while I think you are usually fairly objective, this comparing Baez and Roberts because they both are former allstars is below what I would expect from you. Roberts is a allstar to near allstar level player. Arguing about which prospects should or shouldnt come back or be given up in a deal is fine and what message boards are all about. But implying Robert and Baez are anywhere near comparable level of players makes you look foolish.

[Sports Guy]

Anyone who doesn't think BRob earned AS status in 2005 and 2007 is, well...a fool.

[cindyluvsbrady]

Anyone who doesn't think BRob earned AS status in 2005 and 2007 is, well...a fool.

We agree on this SG!

[davearm]

Anyone who doesn't think BRob earned AS status in 2005 and 2007 is, well...a fool.

I don't see where anyone said that.

[davearm]

Dave while I think you are usually fairly objective, this comparing Baez and Roberts because they both are former allstars is below what I would expect from you. Roberts is a allstar to near allstar level player. Arguing about which prospects should or shouldnt come back or be given up in a deal is fine and what message boards are all about. But implying Robert and Baez are anywhere near comparable level of players makes you look foolish.

Well first, I never implied Roberts and Baez are anywhere near comparable level of players .

I thought we were discussing whether or not having that All-Star label enhances a guy's trade value. If it works that way for one (Roberts), then shouldn't it work that way for the other too?

[Frobby]

I don't see where anyone said that.

So in other words, we are having a stupid semantical debate. The fact that Brian Roberts was an all-star is irrelevant to his trade value. The fact that he played well enough to earn all-star status twice in the last three years is relevant to his trade value. Fine.

[hoosiers]

So in other words, we are having a stupid semantical debate.

That's what I said 20 posts ago and got neg-repped for it (like one must be 14 to neg-rep others here, IMO)! I hope that doesn't happen to you for also calling a spade a spade.

[davearm]

That's what I said 20 posts ago and got neg-repped for it (like one must be 14 to neg-rep others here, IMO)! I hope that doesn't happen to you for also calling a spade a spade.

A correction is in order here.

20 posts ago you unleashed an unprovoked personal attack by resorting to namecalling. That was out of line and makes this community worse for all of us.

That's what earned you neg-rep.

And airing your dirty laundry like this, instead of sticking to baseball, should earn you a few more, IMO.

[Pruke]

Let me ask you this Pruke.

The rumored deal for Roberts was Gallagher + Marshall + Cedeno.

Now let's imagine for a minute that you think that's fair. I don't know if you feel that way, but for our purposes here it doesn't really matter. Assume you do.

So my question for you is this. Which of those guys do the Cubs get to keep if Roberts had been snubbed for the allstar team? (Something that happens to outstanding players every year.)

See? The allstar selection itself isn't meaningful to this trade discussion.

All three of those guys could bomb in '08 - there's risk in every trade and how much is each team willing to assume against the potential they see in how the transaction would benefit them short & long-term.

If those 3 bomb and Roberts is an NL All Star team member, can we expect Pie and Colvin to make plane reservations to Baltimore? Hardly.

If the Cubs don't feel Roberts is a key piece to them winning a Championship within the next 3 years, they shouldn't even be engaging in trade conversations for him.

For the record, I have no issue with that trade return - I just don't care much for beating down Roberts for the purposes of lowering his value.

He's an all-star - right now, period.

[hoosiers]

A correction is in order here.

I did not call anyone any name in this thread.

[Baltimoron]

Just my feeling based on watching him play and based on most of the other defensive stats out there. For example he's 8th best in MLB according to the TotalZone stat you cited. BP's Rate/Rate 2 has him at 101/100 which is exactly average. His RZR and OOZ numbers are not bottom tier.

When the stats are all over the lot like that, I get to go with my gut.

Total Zone and Rate are not PBP, but are estimators based on chances, errors, and POs.

A use of the Basic RZR data has him at +4.1, while the combined STATS and BIS ratings have him at +1, or +3 using RZR and a slightly different way of accounting for OOZ and +0 using the Stats data.

But these measures are based on general idea of was the ball hit in the player's zone or not and did they catch it. I dunno if you recall but we have had threads in the past about the Orioles poor defense on ground balls up the middle. A non pbp based system would reward Roberts if in fact this is true that he has poor range to his right. We also know the orioles have a fairly groundball staff (at 45%, they were tied for 3rd in the AL). This fact will further make BR's non-pbp defensive stats look better, unless they adjust for staff gb/fb, as BP does in calculating their Rate.

The two best systems we have available are probably UZR and PMR, because they factor in a lot more info than either of the above:

Another comparison that one can make is between the fairly "coarse" fielding estimates (like ZR and RZR) that involve artificially-established zones of responsibility for fielders, to those that are more "careful" (like UZR and PMR) in that they consider fielder performance in all zones, and include adjustments for varying batted ball velocities, batter handedness, park factors, etc.

Read more about this quote and these defensive systems here and here

So UZR has Roberts at -4 and PMR had Roberta at -.3

So instead of talking in meaningless he was "X" worst or best player, one could say he ranged from +3 and 0 based on the more simplistic PBP stats, to -4 and -.3 with the more fine tuned PBP stats.

That's a range of 7 runs. I'm not sure you can say any system is wrong based on this, and there is a greater chance UZR is right (or more right, given sample size) than any other system, especially those based on the Raw BIS or Stats data.

I'm not sure UZR is right or wrong on Roberts, I'm saying I and I think you don't know.

Remember sample size too:

Correlation of UZR is r=.50, when BIP=400 (100 games). That compares to component pitching ERA of r=.50 when PA=300, and RC or LWTS of r=.50 when PA=200 (50 games).

In short, you need 2 years of UZR or other fielding metric to be as reliable as 1 year of hitting stats. How reliable is Andruw Jones’ hitting stats this year? Right, so you’d at least like to have 2 years of hitting stats, if not 3. So, you’d like to have 4 years of fielding stats, if not more.

Link in the comments

Point is I'm loathe to jump to a conclusion about a systeme that is better than most every other system when its result isn't really that different from every other system and is only based on one year of data.

However, also keep in mind that seasonal zone rating of all types have greater accuracy for infielders than for outfielders, for the simple reasons that location is a more important determinant of difficulty for ground balls than it is for fly balls. With flyballs, its not just where was it hit, but how long did it stay in the air. Although ground balls can be hit harder or softer (and systems like UZR attempt to account for this), those differences aren't as important as hang time is for an outfielder. Although a stop watch might be an east way time improve this, they aren't used, so we don't know how exactly long any OF had to go get any ball.

Needless to say, the big problem is fielding measurement is the outfield, where the difference between the zones used by BIS and Stats are also magnified.

[davearm]

All three of those guys could bomb in '08 - there's risk in every trade and how much is each team willing to assume against the potential they see in how the transaction would benefit them short & long-term.

If those 3 bomb and Roberts is an NL All Star team member, can we expect Pie and Colvin to make plane reservations to Baltimore? Hardly.

If the Cubs don't feel Roberts is a key piece to them winning a Championship within the next 3 years, they shouldn't even be engaging in trade conversations for him.

For the record, I have no issue with that trade return - I just don't care much for beating down Roberts for the purposes of lowering his value.

He's an all-star - right now, period.

You didn't answer my question.

If Roberts had been snubbed, which guy would the Cubs get to keep: Gallagher, Marshall, or Cedeno?

[Flosman]

Well first, I never implied Roberts and Baez are anywhere near comparable level of players .

I thought we were discussing whether or not having that All-Star label enhances a guy's trade value. If it works that way for one (Roberts), then shouldn't it work that way for the other too?

I think there are two issues here. 1) Brob's proformance as a allstar level player has been consistant since he broke through. 2) the most recent history is at that level not some far in the past memory. By you position we should expect to be able to trade Cal for a ton because he is always an allstar. If Roberts had a bad year last year then him making the allstar team in the past would mean little and in truth making the team is not really what is important it is playing currently at a level that he is even deserving of consideration.

[Rob H]

For the record, I don't think Dave or I is trying to make the argument that Roberts is not a very valuable ballplayer. The only debate going on here is why he's valuable.

[Sports Guy]

For the record, I don't think Dave or I is trying to make the argument that Roberts is not a very valuable ballplayer. The only debate going on here is why he's valuable.

Because he is one of the best all around second baseman in the sport and is signed to a very reasonable 2 year contract.