Stotle cooks up his Oriole Trade

[weams]

Nationals acquire Chris Davis and Brian Matusz from the Orioles; Cubs acquire A.J. Cole from the Nationals and Eduardo Rodriguez from the Orioles; Orioles acquire Adam LaRoche, Anthony Rendon, and Steven Souza from the Nationals, and Jeff Samardzija and Dan Vogelbach from the Cubs

It's always difficult to try to piece together a potential trade opportunity without intimate knowledge of a particular organization?s player valuations (and particularly so when trying to balance the wants and needs of three organizations). The above suggested deal is meant as more of a framework than anything else, and would likely need to be tweaked to account for variances in player valuations across each organization. On to the rationale?

The Nationals drop a 2013 MVP candidate into the middle of the order alongside Bryce Harper, Jayson Werth, Ryan Zimmerman, and Ian Desmond, forming a formidable core of a lineup that will be in place for the next two seasons. Matusz adds a quality lefty arm to the pen, which stands as a current area of weakness, particularly in light of the recent pieces shipped out for Doug Fister. The downside for Washington is moving six cheap years of Anthony Rendon and a quality prospect in A.J. Cole. Rendon isn't a natural fit at second base and carries added injury risk at the keystone due to the physical demands of the position, but could be in Nationals long term plans at the hot corner should they be anticipating a move across the diamond for Ryan Zimmerman in 2015 or shortly thereafter. Cole is a potential mid-rotation to front-end arm with an ETA of 2015, but the impact of his loss is mitigated by the stable of arms currently populating the 25-man, including Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmerman, Gio Gonzalez, and Doug Fister. Neither LaRoche nor Souza is a significant loss, with the deal ultimately coming down to sacrificing the potential upside in Rendon and Cole for a significant upgrade in offensive production for the next two seasons?two seasons in which the Nationals will likely lineup as serious World Series contenders. It?s a steep price, but it should be when acquiring two years of a recent MVP candidate that has launched 86 bombs and triple-slashed .278/.350/.571 over the past two seasons.

The market for Samardzija is difficult to figure, with grades and production not entirely matching up for the for Golden Domer. The return of Cole and Rodriguez feels right, with each likely to start 2014 at Double A with a Major League ETA of 2015. This lines up well with the wave of impact position prospects heading to the North Side around that time, and adds pitching depth to an otherwise hitter-heavy system. With such a large influx of cheap talent set to debut over the next couple of years, and the Cubs on the hook for just around $30 million starting 2015, there should be plenty of payroll room for Chicago to augment the young talent with a handful of impact free agents, including a front-end arm along the lines of a David Price. Theo & Co. could likewise package some of that young offensive talent to address areas of need by the time the Cubbies are ready to make their aggressive push. Vogelbach has a limited profile with his raw power and hit his only potential carrying tools. With much of the Cubs system already containing power at the corners, he's an easy trade candidate that fits best as a future DH on an American League club. If the Cubs value Cole and Rodriguez as potential no. 2 or no. 3 starters, it's a very nice return for two years of a quality arm that has flashed mid-rotation potential, and a future DH with no clear home in Wrigley.

The Orioles find themselves in a difficult position of trying to add wins with payroll limitations likely shrinking the pool of available free agent targets, and a relatively thin and top heavy minor league system likely shrinking the pool of available trade targets. The same, small moves seem unlikely to allow Baltimore to keep pace with the rest of the AL East, making an aggressive retooling along these lines one potential avenue for maintaining the ability to compete in the present while adding a couple of solid pieces for the future. It would be a tough sell to move Davis after his 2013 campaign, but the proposed return strengthens the cost controlled portion of the team's core talent while addressing a big immediate need in starting pitching. Samardzija steps into the rotation for two seasons, affording the Orioles some time to bring along Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy when they are ready, rather than when they are needed. Rendon slots into second base for 2014, thereafter splitting second and third base duties with Jonathan Schoop with Manny Machado sliding to shortstop in place of 2015 free agent to be JJ Hardy. LaRoche is a significant downgrade from Davis, but the improvement at second base, and in the rotation, should be enough to help Baltimore maintain its competitive potential in 2014. 2015 will see an additional $15 million come off the books via Nick Markaki , with plenty of interesting corner infield options slated to hit free agency, including Billy Butler, Hanley Ramirez, Chase Headley, and Pablo Sandoval. Vogelbach and Souza inject the system with much-needed power bats and could provide some thump to the lineup in the five or six hole come 2016.

Baseball Prospectus

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22345

[Br10n]

What? Love it for the Nats.

[clapdiddy]

The one thing that would scare me about a trade like this is the Rendon factor. His injury history bugs me and I would assume he'd get the O's " Dr. Angelos full cavity search" physical. Even if he got through that with flying colors, he's still a risk and is, in my estimation, the key piece to our acquisitions in this deal.

[weams]

Souza is good. I have watched him here.

[weams]

The one thing that would scare me about a trade like this is the Rendon factor. His injury history bugs me and I would assume he'd get the O's " Dr. Angelos full cavity search" physical. Even if he got through that with flying colors, he's still a risk and is, in my estimation, the key piece to our acquisitions in this deal.

That is what I said to Nick.

[Whammer]

If you take Rodriguez out of the equation and replace him with someone like Wright, I'd do this trade in a NY second. Matusz has firmly established himself as nothing more than an over-hyped LOOGY. Davis is coming off a career year that may never be repeated again. In return, we get the 3B of future (Rendon), a young middle of the rotation SP (Samardzija), an overpaid but servicable 1B and a couple legit prospects. The O's should hire Stotle to broker this one for us.

[weams]

Great numbers but those were put up in AA at age 24. Interesting trade. Not crazy about it. Seems like a no brainer for the Nats.

Yeah. I'm with you on this.

[weams]

If you take Rodriguez out of the equation and replace him with someone like Wright, I'd do this trade in a NY second. Matusz has firmly established himself as nothing more than an over-hyped LOOGY. Davis is coming off a career year that may never be repeated again. In return, we get the 3B of future (Rendon), a young middle of the rotation SP (Samardzija), an overpaid but servicable 1B and a couple legit prospects. The O's should hire Stotle to broker this one for us.

This deal could never happen without the 20 year old AA left-hander involved. Never.

[Elbren]

Wow, I hate reading things like this. It gets me excited; not just for the current team, but for the future of the organization ...

... then, I stop and remember this teams' track record with trading guys at the peak of their value.

They just don't do it.

[Whammer]

Wow, I hate reading things like this. It gets me excited; not just for the current team, but for the future of the organization ...

... then, I stop and remember this teams' track record with trading guys at the peak of their value.

They just don't do it.

Yeah - Jim Johnson says hello.

[Singleton]

In the short term -- at the MLB level -- we lose C. Davis and our lefty reliever and get A. Laroche, Rendon, and Smarz. I think we'd be better off next year if everyone is healthy. From a longer term perspective, we lose Erod but gain Souza and Vogelbach and a bunch more years of Rendon.

Hmm.

If I think C. Davis will repeat his 2013 campaign, it's a tough move to make. If I think he slips back a bit toward his 2012 year, I make the move. So -- yea -- I'd probably pull the trigger. At least it's bold.

Don't see it happening though.

[panick]

Stotle, that's a great write-up.

The usual trade ideas on this board are merely the old this guy for that guy proposal followed by 'What do you guys think?' It was great to read a proposal that not only involves Orioles that the fans would not want to be traded(Davis and Rodriguez), but discusses the pros and cons of the players relative to the teams involved.

This is the kind of move the O's should be trying, instead of thinking about adding a player here and there. It doesn't seem to involve the O's taking a step backward in the short term, and could also help over the long term.

However, I really doubt that this trade could ever be done. Considering he once signed a softball player(whatever happened to that guy?) and got the O's scouts banned from an entire country, I don't think Duquette is smart enough to come up with an idea of this kind of a trade. But maybe someone in the O's front office monitors this board and can pass on Stotle's idea to Duquette.

[hoosiers]

Generally, I like the concepts in the trade for all three teams and the explanations are quality.

I understand Chris Davis might be a one year wonder, but Samardy and LaRoche were less than 2 WAR combined last year and could cost $17M or so. So, I having a tough time with a couple of things:

- Is the Os net haul for a 6 WAR batter correspondingly higher than what the Cubs receive for a 1 WAR pitcher?

- I only see the Os netting more than one well above average player/prospect in this for Chris Davis in Rendon.

- I'd rather keep EdRod and just deal with the Nats starting with Rendon and taking on LaRoche. What else is needed to get there? Cole? Skole? Plus a lower level prospect?

I don't get the love affair over Samardy (generally, not digging at Stotle). This guy is going on 29 and has never pitched above 2 WAR. If he is going to net two Top 100 pitching prospects (at the loss of some lesser hitting prospects), we should test the waters on what we would get for significantly more productive, AL East tested guys like Miguel Gonzalez and WChen.

[Stotle]

Baseball Prospectus

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22345

Thanks for the link, Michael! It was a fun exercise, for sure.

[Camden_yardbird]

I don't like the LaRoche part of the deal. That's a tread in place asset for the Orioles when in reality if they traded for Rendon they should be trading Hardy shortly thereafter and thinking about 2016 instead of the next two years. I would rather see Cole coming to the Orioles with them shipping something to the cubs.