Stotle cooks up his Oriole Trade

[Stotle]

Generally, I like the concepts in the trade for all three teams and the explanations are quality.

I understand Chris Davis might be a one year wonder, but Samardy and LaRoche were less than 2 WAR combined last year and could cost $17M or so. So, I having a tough time with a couple of things:

- Is the Os net haul for a 6 WAR batter correspondingly higher than what the Cubs receive for a 1 WAR pitcher?

- I only see the Os netting more than one well above average player/prospect in this for Chris Davis in Rendon.

- I'd rather keep EdRod and just deal with the Nats starting with Rendon and taking on LaRoche. What else is needed to get there? Cole? Skole? Plus a lower level prospect?

I don't get the love affair over Samardy (generally, not digging at Stotle). This guy is going on 29 and has never pitched above 2 WAR. If he is going to net two Top 100 pitching prospects (at the loss of some lesser hitting prospects), we should test the waters on what we would get for significantly more productive, AL East tested guys like Miguel Gonzalez and WChen.

Very good points, and I agree. My struggle was with the limitations I placed on myself making the deal -- that Baltimore would have present day competitiveness as a "must have". That's tough when moving Davis. Given the cost of free agent pitching, I thought Samardzija could make sense as an inexpensive two-year plug that would help keep core costs down while solidifying the middle of the rotation.

There's risk with Samardzija, of course. If you believe in the stuff and the grades, he's a potential #2. If you believe more in the production to date, he's closer to a solid #3 that will give you days of #2 and days of #4.

If Baltimore were willing to take a more significant step back in "now" talent to strengthen the core for 2015 and beyond, I'd avoid Shark and hold onto Cole (with this proposed deal). My eye would then be on flipping one of Cole/Gausman/Bundy/Harvey in a deal next off-season for a young Cubs power bat (Baez/Bryant/Soler). Then you've got extra jingle to fill MLB holes and have dramatically strengthened your cost-controlled core for 2015-2018.

[hoosiers]

Very good points, and I agree. My struggle was with the limitations I placed on myself making the deal -- that Baltimore would have present day competitiveness as a "must have". That's tough when moving Davis. Given the cost of free agent pitching, I thought Samardzija could make sense as an inexpensive two-year plug that would help keep core costs down while solidifying the middle of the rotation.

There's risk with Samardzija, of course. If you believe in the stuff and the grades, he's a potential #2. If you believe more in the production to date, he's closer to a solid #3 that will give you days of #2 and days of #4.

If Baltimore were willing to take a more significant step back in "now" talent to strengthen the core for 2015 and beyond, I'd avoid Shark and hold onto Cole (with this proposed deal). My eye would then be on flipping one of Cole/Gausman/Bundy/Harvey in a deal next off-season for a young Cubs power bat (Baez/Bryant/Soler). Then you've got extra jingle to fill MLB holes and have dramatically strengthened your cost-controlled core for 2015-2018.

Taking a step back in now talent would result in a team loaded with potential and a lower core payroll entering 2015. An infield with Rendon, Manny and Schoop to go with Tillman, Chen, MiGon with Gausman, Bundy, EdRod and Cole on the doorstep. That's a strong multi-year window to compete and from which to add significant payroll.

[Stotle]

Taking a step back in now talent would result in a team loaded with potential and a lower core payroll entering 2015. An infield with Rendon, Manny and Schoop to go with Tillman, Chen, MiGon with Gausman, Bundy, EdRod and Cole on the doorstep. That's a strong multi-year window to compete and from which to add significant payroll.

Oh, I agree. I just don't believe Baltimore ownership/front office is willing to take the hit in now production.

[Stotle]

Stotle, I don't believe you ever posted in my Chris Davis to the Giants thread. Is a trade involving Belt and Crick a non starter on the Giants side?

Nope, not at all. There is a wide variance in industry opinion on Crick, however. He's in the discussion for top 25 prospect in baseball for some, while others see him as great prospect that is going to be a shutdown closer but not a starter.

[Elbren]

Yeah - Jim Johnson says hello.

Jim Johnson's peak value was last offseason.

Not when he has 1 year of team control left and staring at $10+ Mil. in arbitration.

[Stotle]

So, is Belt, Crick, and a B type prospect a good return for Davis? Realistic? I think that's a now and future trade for the O's.

Certainly could be -- maybe Susac as the future replacement for Wieters?

[isestrex]

It lost me at LaRoche.

Good write up though. For the Orioles, this is rebuilding trade. It gets rid of your best player for prospects and young proven players. If the Orioles were in the situation to blow it up, I might like it better.

[hoosiers]

It lost me at LaRoche.

LaRoche is filler. If you don't like him, figure out what you need from the Nats that will make you like him for one year.

[isestrex]

LaRoche is filler. If you don't like him, figure out what you need from the Nats that will make you like him for one year.

On the contrary, LaRoche is dead weight and clogging up the infield especially with Zimmerman's increasing issues. The Nationals were fools for re-signing him and trading him would solve a lot of their problems (including a salary dump). If this trade really were on the table, I think the Nats would almost demand LaRoche be part of the deal.

[skanar]

Really creative and a great solution to the restrictions Stotle set for himself. I'm impressed (and must spread rep, etc etc). I think the Nationals do the best out of this deal, but it's not awful for any of the three, which is in and of itself quite an achievement.

I think if the Orioles are going to decide to build for the future, they should actually go for it. Trade Davis, Wieters, Hardy, and Chen all for prospects, ideally AA or AAA guys who will be in line to play and be good in 2016. Don't get just-ok MLB players like LaRoche or Samardzija. Hope Markakis rebounds and can be dealt at the deadline for something. See if someone will overpay for decent relievers like O'Day or Hunter.

Ideally, get Adam Jones on board first. Then the 2016 core is

C {empty} - Ohlman?

3B {empty}

SS Machado

2B Schoop

1B {empty}

LF Urrutia or other

CF Jones

RF Alvarez or other

With a rotation of Tillman-Gonzalez-Bundy-Gausman-Rodriguez and whoever else is traded for. Bullpen would probably turn over completely, but might involve Mike Wright, Belfiore, Patton, and Steve Johnson.

Of course, this won't happen in a million years. Also, it would mean admitting that this year's midseason trades were a massive mistake, since adding Hader, Delmonico, and a draft pick would improve the future outlook significantly.

[weams]

Really creative and a great solution to the restrictions Stotle set for himself. I'm impressed (and must spread rep, etc etc). I think the Nationals do the best out of this deal, but it's not awful for any of the three, which is in and of itself quite an achievement.

I think if the Orioles are going to decide to build for the future, they should actually go for it. Trade Davis, Wieters, Hardy, and Chen all for prospects, ideally AA or AAA guys who will be in line to play and be good in 2016. Don't get just-ok MLB players like LaRoche or Samardzija. Hope Markakis rebounds and can be dealt at the deadline for something. See if someone will overpay for decent relievers like O'Day or Hunter.

Ideally, get Adam Jones on board first. Then the 2016 core is

C {empty} - Ohlman?

3B {empty}

SS Machado

2B Schoop

1B {empty}

LF Urrutia or other

CF Jones

RF Alvarez or other

With a rotation of Tillman-Gonzalez-Bundy-Gausman-Rodriguez and whoever else is traded for. Bullpen would probably turn over completely, but might involve Mike Wright, Belfiore, Patton, and Steve Johnson.

Of course, this won't happen in a million years. Also, it would mean admitting that this year's midseason trades were a massive mistake, since adding Hader, Delmonico, and a draft pick would improve the future outlook significantly.

But you are then telling me that we are the Astros next season right?

[Tryptamine]

AJ Cole and Eduardo for Samardzija and Vogelbach. Yeah, good luck with that. That's even less than what they got for 2 months of Garza by himself.

[hoosiers]

On the contrary, LaRoche is dead weight and clogging up the infield especially with Zimmerman's increasing issues. The Nationals were fools for re-signing him and trading him would solve a lot of their problems (including a salary dump). If this trade really were on the table, I think the Nats would almost demand LaRoche be part of the deal.

You say dead-weight, I say filler. What's the difference? LaRoche isn't that good and trading him does solve a lot of the Nats problems - which is why you have to extract an appropriate price from the Nats to help them out.

I don't want LaRoche, but if he helps me get to Anthony Rendon and AJ Cole, then I would take LaRoche.

[hoosiers]

But you are then telling me that we are the Astros next season right?

What do you think the odds are that the Astros make the playoffs before the Orioles?

Same question for the Marlins?

[Stotle]

AJ Cole and Eduardo for Samardzija and Vogelbach. Yeah, good luck with that. That's even less than what they got for 2 months of Garza by himself.

Olt was in the middle of a really, really bad season, with evaluators questioning the hit tool and pitch ID against advanced arms. Grimm projected as a reliever or back-end arm. Edwards had yet to reach full season ball.

I think you may need to reconfigure your valuations when taking into account upside and proximity. On the other hand, maybe I'm just way off in my valuations.