Ugh. Are we going to have to blow it up?

[waroriole]

No chance Davis signs for 6/100 now. Unless he gets a new agent.

I think it takes at least 6/120, and probably more.

[twinedenter]

DD seems to be good at finding cheap talent and focusing on OBP (which we lack, funny) but his trades are not the best, agreed. They aren't Roland Hemond or Syd Thrift bad though...

Nope your right. The reason is because he is always reactive, he is not trading from a position of strength. He is the one "In Need" and that's when he loses.

Funny, he would be setting himself up for the same thing right now, IF we were going to be contenders. However, we won't be and so it won't show. There won't be a mad scramble for a #4 starter in July this year.

[twinedenter]

I feel like sometimes there are players that have career years in Baltimore and we hold on to them when their value is highest.

We should have traded Johnson last year, and look what ended up happening. After Scotts big year a few years ago would have been a nice time to unload...no sir, not the O's!

The same thing is happening with Davis. Anyone else think he repeats last year? Absolutely not. There was plenty of decent first base options this winter that could have helped along with a hefty return for a big year by a good player. Morneau, Hart, Morrison, even a guy like Loney.

I will bet next off-season it's a consensus, "we should have traded Davis when his value was highest."

You can take this even a step further and say; "Since we know we are going to lose Davis, we should have gotten a cheap 1st Basemen this season (Who could DH as well). That way we are not having to be REACTIVE AGAIN!"

Oh I forgot 1) that's DD's MO 2) Weiters will hit better if he isn't a catcher....thanks Buck!

[mcgraw238]

We should be shopping our roster for MLB ready talent that will keep the window open beyond 2015 but it looks like this organization is intent to be stuck somewhere in the middle. A show of hands from those confident Chris Davis will be extended and remain an O beyond 2015??? I have little confidence anything gets done with Boras on Davis or Wieters.

[Sanfran327]

I feel like sometimes there are players that have career years in Baltimore and we hold on to them when their value is highest.

We should have traded Johnson last year, and look what ended up happening. After Scotts big year a few years ago would have been a nice time to unload...no sir, not the O's!

The same thing is happening with Davis. Anyone else think he repeats last year? Absolutely not. There was plenty of decent first base options this winter that could have helped along with a hefty return for a big year by a good player. Morneau, Hart, Morrison, even a guy like Loney.

I will bet next off-season it's a consensus, "we should have traded Davis when his value was highest."

To be fair, NOBODY thinks he is going to repeat his 2013, so his trade value won't be based on 53 HRs. Now, if he hits 40 again in 2014, I'll be happy and consider that a great follow-up season. But there just aren't many if any hitters in the game right now that are capable of back-to-back 50 HR seasons. How many have there been in MLB history that weren't alleged PED users anyway?

So, if you're setting his current trade value at 53 HR capability, you're sorely mistaken. Point is, he's a complete player with crazy power, and even if he never his 50 again, his trade value is still sky high right now. You don't waste your time projecting 45+ HRs. It just happens. And while I don't think he'll ever do it again, I do think he's a candidate, and I'd value him as such.

[Tony-OH]

Yep you just defined EXACTLY how Tampa and Oakland do business. They trade the "core" players for young kids to create more "core" players.

The problem is sustaining that way of thinking. You can't make mistakes.

The O's need to be blown up if they won't take the necessary steps to become a contender. Ie money or trades. We are a 4th place team at best, at the moment.

How many World Series Championships do they have between them over the last 15 years?

[mcgraw238]

How many World Series Championships do they have between them over the last 15 years?

In fairness the Tigers have zero championships and they do things the other way. Rarely does the best team on paper emerge as the champion. Sports is about structuring your roster to get into the tournament that starts after the regular season, from there anything can happen. Tampa and Oakland have excelled at giving themselves a chance at a championship by getting into the post season tournament.

[Tony-OH]

In fairness the Tigers have zero championships and they do things the other way. Rarely does the best team on paper emerge as the champion. Sports is about structuring your roster to get into the tournament that starts after the regular season, from there anything can happen. Tampa and Oakland have excelled at giving themselves a chance at a championship by getting into the post season tournament.

But they've been in the ALCS four of the last eight years and twice been to the World Series. Oakland has been the ALCS once in the last eight years and didn't win a game in that series and Tampa has been to one ALCS/World Series in their history (2008) and won one game in the WS. So between them they have won one World Series game in the last eight years doing it the small market way.

BTW, Tampa has the worse fan base in the AL (1,510,300 15 out of 15 teams) despite being a solid playoff contender pretty much each year over the last eight years. They have to do it the small market way. We don't.

[atomic]

Problem is people out here wanna blame PA. Although he may be constricting some moves, it isn't like Duquette has nothing to work with.

Example: He has a catcher, who the fans have turned on, who he could trade and improve this club. Problem is, we have seen DD's trades and we usually don't come out ahead.

What trade have we come out behind? The Hammel trade, Norris Trade,and Feldman trade seem like we came out ahead. The Jim Johnson trade was a salary dump and Jim Johnson was awful last season anyway. You can't force other teams to give you good players for vastly overpaid player with one year left on his contract.

[oriole]

To be fair, NOBODY thinks he is going to repeat his 2013, so his trade value won't be based on 53 HRs. Now, if he hits 40 again in 2014, I'll be happy and consider that a great follow-up season. But there just aren't many if any hitters in the game right now that are capable of back-to-back 50 HR seasons. How many have there been in MLB history that weren't alleged PED users anyway?

So, if you're setting his current trade value at 53 HR capability, you're sorely mistaken. Point is, he's a complete player with crazy power, and even if he never his 50 again, his trade value is still sky high right now. You don't waste your time projecting 45+ HRs. It just happens. And while I don't think he'll ever do it again, I do think he's a candidate, and I'd value him as such.

I'm not sure if you're agreeing with what I said or not...but I don't really disagree with anything here. He likely just had his best year, you sell off of those numbers. Next year he is bound to be more like 2012 Davis and that's a good player but not someone you can really stock the farm with, especially if we wait until he has one year left until Fa instead of two. Right now if you trade Davis, you get a serious haul. You essentially add to the core one or two cost controlled players instead of holding on with the mirage of signing him to what...5/100? Yeah, not happening.

[Sanfran327]

How many World Series Championships do they have between them over the last 15 years?

In fairness the Tigers have zero championships and they do things the other way. Rarely does the best team on paper emerge as the champion. Sports is about structuring your roster to get into the tournament that starts after the regular season, from there anything can happen. Tampa and Oakland have excelled at giving themselves a chance at a championship by getting into the post season tournament.

Exactly this. I said in another thread that the thing that drives me nuts about the Tampa and Oakland model is that they always lack the firepower needed to get through the postseason. For some reason or another, they can make terrific regular season rosters (rosters that are constructed to play a very even-keel, conservative style that will beat inferior teams and play .500 against the good teams), but they can't make a deep postseason run when Even Longoria and Yoenis Cespedes are their only bats. Pitching and defense will get you there. But generally, particularly in the American League, you have to be able to hit as well to get to the mountain top.

[mcgraw238]

But they've been in the ALCS four of the last eight years and twice been to the World Series. Oakland has been the ALCS once in the last eight years and didn't win a game in that series and Tampa has been to one ALCS/World Series in their history (2008) and won one game in the WS. So between them they have won one World Series game in the last eight years doing it the small market way.

I get that, but I think people are looking at what those clubs do as a model, not necessarily following it to a T. Those clubs have had success and stayed relevant by a certain approach despite really tight budgets. I'd suggest that St. Louis should be used as a model as well on how the O's can stay relevant. As things stand I'm no sure what philosophy the O's are following and I fear that by 2016 we will be back where we started pre-2012.

[Sanfran327]

I'm not sure if you're agreeing with what I said or not...but I don't really disagree with anything here. He likely just had his best year, you sell off of those numbers. Next year he is bound to be more like 2012 Davis and that's a good player but not someone you can really stock the farm with, especially if we wait until he has one year left until Fa instead of two. Right now if you trade Davis, you get a serious haul. You essentially add to the core one or two cost controlled players instead of holding on with the mirage of signing him to what...5/100? Yeah, not happening.

We agree fundamentally. But my point was that a repeat shouldn't even be a consideration. It would merely be a nice surprise.

[twinedenter]

How many World Series Championships do they have between them over the last 15 years?

I don't understand your point? Are you trying to compare them to the O's? There is none there. Those organizations are obviously run much better than ours.

Frankly, they are 2 of the better run organizations in baseball, period.

[twinedenter]

But they've been in the ALCS four of the last eight years and twice been to the World Series. Oakland has been the ALCS once in the last eight years and didn't win a game in that series and Tampa has been to one ALCS/World Series in their history (2008) and won one game in the WS. So between them they have won one World Series game in the last eight years doing it the small market way.

BTW, Tampa has the worse fan base in the AL (1,510,300 15 out of 15 teams) despite being a solid playoff contender pretty much each year over the last eight years. They have to do it the small market way. We don't.

I never said we did. It is just how we are run, currently....