If the payroll is $100M max, the Orioles are a small-market team.

[tntoriole]

We then control his rights through 2018 if I am not mistaken. He is just like Bryce Harper in that regard.

I did not want Jim Johnson back. I did not want Nate McClouth back. I think flexibility at those two positions will serve us well. Money aside. Because if it were up to me, I would have Mr. Angelos spend every last penny on my personal enjoyment of the team. And life in general.

I believe that we will be a better team not tethered to Jim Johnson this season. And I believe we will do better in left field than Nate McClouth does for the Nationals.

I hope you are right, but I can't be quite that confident of Reimold,Urrutia, Pearce Peguero et al(season starting tomorrow options). And we have seen too many really bad closers over the years to be quite as sure that the loss of Johnson will be totally painless as we watch ________ (yet to be determined) close in 2014. But I await the play as always and Sarasota, of course, is always lovely.

[TonySoprano]

My problem with this thread is that it makes two assumptions that are not supported by any evidence: (1) the Orioles have a "hard cap" of $100 mm, and (2) "every club will take the $25M in free national TV money and devote it to increasing payroll.

Let's start with the first assumption. Where does it come from? Because Duquette used an analogy, when explaining why he traded Jim Johnson, where he compared it to spending 10 marbles on JJ when you have 100 marbles? That seems to me a very thin reed on which to base a "hard cap" theory. All we really know is that DD has stated publicly that he expects to have a higher payroll in 2014 than he had in 2013, and that he said last year's payroll was "about $100 mm." That certainly doesn't tell me that the Orioles have a $100 mm "hard cap." That said, I am not particularly optimistic that the O's plan to spend substantially more than $100 mm, and in fact, I won't be shocked if Opening Day payroll (as opposed to final payroll) is a bit under $100 mm. But, we just don't know yet.

But the bigger flaw is the assumption that the other teams will all spend their $25 mm in TV money on payroll.

So far, so good.

I've annotated the chart from the OP showing last year's Opening Day payroll for the 30 clubs, and showed next to it BB-ref's estimate of what those same clubs have committed to payroll for 2014 right now (this includes estimates for what teams will spend on their arbitration-eligible players):1 Yankees $ 228,835,490 $155 mm

Stop the presses. The Yankees number immediately leaps out. Going to the NY page, it doesn't include a salary for Ellsbury ($21M). Assuming there are no other big errors in the numbers, as it stands today, the Orioles have been leapfrogged by the Braves, Brewers, and Royals with only $400K separating us from Cleveland. Both Chicago teams have taken a step back, but overall the Orioles will drop a couple spots on the payroll list. The $30M gap between the O's and A's has been closed to $10M due to the Johnson salary dump *ahem* I mean, trade. TB's number with options is $68.8M. Tack on another $7M for James Loney, and they're now within $6M of Baltimore, compared to $33M in 2013.

[Frobby]

Stop the presses. The Yankees number immediately leaps out. Going to the NY page, it doesn't include a salary for Ellsbury ($21M). Assuming there are no other big errors in the numbers, as it stands today, the Orioles have been leapfrogged by the Braves, Brewers, and Royals with only $400K separating us from Cleveland. Both Chicago teams have taken a step back, but overall the Orioles will drop a couple spots on the payroll list. The $30M gap between the O's and A's has been closed to $10M due to the Johnson salary dump *ahem* I mean, trade. TB's number with options is $68.8M. Tack on another $7M for James Loney, and they're now within $6M of Baltimore, compared to $33M in 2013.

Thanks for pointing out the Ellsbury error, and I make no claims as to whether BB-ref's numbers are completely accurate. And please understand that I'm only using these numbers for a limited purpose: to show that no team has actually spent an additional $25 mm, whereas the OP assumes that every team but the Orioles will do this. It goes without saying that BB-ref's numbers only take into account players already signed, and with about 100 free agents still on the market (including 21 of ESPN's top 50), the total amount that teams spend on payroll for 2014 will end up being higher than in 2013. But it's unknown right now which teams will spend a lot between now and Opening Day, and which teams are about done with their offseason. I'm very confident the Orioles aren't done with theirs, though I have no idea what their final payroll number is going to look like.

[weams]

Thanks for pointing out the Ellsbury error, and I make no claims as to whether BB-ref's numbers are completely accurate. And please understand that I'm only using these numbers for a limited purpose: to show that no team has actually spent an additional $25 mm, whereas the OP assumes that every team but the Orioles will do this. It goes without saying that BB-ref's numbers only take into account players already signed, and with about 100 free agents still on the market (including 21 of ESPN's top 50), the total amount that teams spend on payroll for 2014 will end up being higher than in 2013. But it's unknown right now which teams will spend a lot between now and Opening Day, and which teams are about done with their offseason. I'm very confident the Orioles aren't done with theirs, though I have no idea what their final payroll number is going to look like.

I am confident that the Orioles never intended to have a payroll of 124 million dollars in 2014. Nor do I think that anyone who assumed they would was really thinking clearly.

[LookitsPuck]

Frobby, where are you getting your arbitration estimates?

[Frobby]

Frobby, where are you getting your arbitration estimates?

I am getting them from BB-ref, and I think they are just rounding off MLBTradeRumors' esitmates to the nearest million.

[LookitsPuck]

Thanks!

[TonySoprano]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Here's a stat. As of now -- wo arb figures known -- Yankees have 9 players scheduled to make $15M or more in 2014. Rest of AL East has 5</p>— Dan Connolly (@danconnollysun) <a href="

">December 14, 2013</a></blockquote>

<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[McNulty]

It's 27 million , not 25.

If the Phillies can spend 165+ without their own network, then so can we. Period.

[Frobby]

It's 27 million , not 25.

If the Phillies can spend 165+ without their own network, then so can we. Period.

In 2012, the Phillies had $279 mm in revenues, the Orioles had $206 mm. The Phillies had $133 mm in gate receipts to the Orioles' $56 mm. We can all take wild guesses as to what the Orioles could get out of MASN that isn't accounted for in those numbers, but the Phillies start with a huge advantage.

[Tx Oriole]

The clincher will be when Choo signs with Houston. Shame.

Do you think it would be wise to sign him to the kind of contract he will get? Cano

gets 240 million don't you think Choo is going to want 200 million at least? I don't

think those kinds of contracts are bad for teams. IMO

[Tx Oriole]

I think Mariners ownership is trying to ride the coattails of the Seahawks enthusiasm. And try to appeal to that fanbase. Smart.

240 million ten year contract on one player is not smart. IMO

[TradeAngelos]

In 2012, the Phillies had $279 mm in revenues, the Orioles had $206 mm. The Phillies had $133 mm in gate receipts to the Orioles' $56 mm. We can all take wild guesses as to what the Orioles could get out of MASN that isn't accounted for in those numbers, but the Phillies start with a huge advantage.

You know why they have those revenues? Because they spent the money to put a winner on the field. They spent...they started winning...and the people came back in droves. Funny how that works isn't it? Philly will probably always have a slight edge in the revenue derived from fans etc due to size of city, but our RSN smashes that small edge to pieces.

And there is no other single advantage greater than the one that comes with owning one of the largest largest RSN's in the sport, like Mr Angelos does.

[joedogg9999]

In 2012, the Phillies had $279 mm in revenues, the Orioles had $206 mm. The Phillies had $133 mm in gate receipts to the Orioles' $56 mm. We can all take wild guesses as to what the Orioles could get out of MASN that isn't accounted for in those numbers, but the Phillies start with a huge advantage.

Phillies have a recent track record of success (world series) that resulted in that gate reciept revenue. Their fanbase skyrocketed due to this success. This success was done by a sudden spike in spending. Point is, you have to imvest in your team. The Os COULD spend 150m this year and they should if they want to build a consistent winning franchise. PA would make his cash when the fans come back after some success

[TouchemAll]

Is it just me or when the O's exceed that magic 90mill + payroll the following couple of years they pull

back the payroll?? Seems like a pattern to me?

Is this the magic pull back year