Jen Royle: Orioles open to trading Valencia ( Traded to KC for OF David Lough)

[Yachtsman]

A good trade for the Orioles, though I liked DV for his role.

[JayThomas]

Here's a thread regarding the trade on a Royals forum.

In the financial industry this is referred to as a SWAP. To anyone but the participants, it might appear that either or both were hosed or got a great deal. The truth is that KC and we had disparate excess inventory and needs that matched up. They apparently were in the market for a capable 3rd baseman to relieve Moustakas who mashes LH pitching and were 'long' outfielders. We have a surplus of RH bats (Valencia, Pearce, Reimold, Almanzar) and were willing to deal one for a LH outfielder. It is a classic good match. Period. They seem pretty happy over on the KC board, and most of us seem pretty happy here. Good swap, er, trade.

[Redskins Rick]

Johnny,

I've read your posts for years. I'm aware that your analysis centers mostly on the "classic three" of BA, HR, RBI so I get why you think this is pretty even.

All I'm going to say is:

Lough provided 2.3 rWAR last year and has provided that same number in 116 games in MLB. Valencia provided 0.3 rWAR last year and 1.6 rWAR in 336 games in his MLB career.

Lough's splits tend to say he'll improve offensively by playing in Baltimore. Valencia's don't say he'll improve in KC since his homers (8 in 161 ab) were a huge part of his value last year and that park is huge.

I know this stuff won't matter to you, but I thought I'd at least try to point it out.

But, what about that all magic OPS, and Valencia was .888 in 52 games?

[centralpaosfan]

Have you noticed that, when talking about Balfour, some posters hammmered home the fact he is going from a pitchers park to Camden Yards and that will hurt his value. Yet you don't see one post giving Lough credit for going from a pitchers park to Camden Yards.

[LA2]

It's like we picked up Joe Orsulak again. Not a bad move at all if it turns out that way, as long as Jones keeps it going and Nick returns to the form he had as recently as 2012.

[LA2]

Have you noticed that, when talking about Balfour, some posters hammmered home the fact he is going from a pitchers park to Camden Yards and that will hurt his value. Yet you don't see one post giving Lough credit for going from a pitchers park to Camden Yards.

I know it's quite a long thread to read through, but actually some posters have pointed out that Lough's stats will probably improved at OPACY.

[LA2]

You're right that it is a swap. It just isn't a good one. The things that the KC board is missing (along with Moore apparently) is that Valencia has played 10 games at 3B in two years. He played one full year at third base in 2011 and his dWAR was -1.1 in 154 games which completely offset his oWAR that year of 1.1 for a net of ZERO.

They also seem to be missing that he had an awful two year stretch before putting up really excellent numbers in 170 at bats last year. Now, I think he'll do pretty well if he is limited to lefties, righties without a great slider, and his hot streaks are maximized (he is really timing dependent in his approach at the plate which screams streaky), but this isn't a player who will ever approach being a full time player at any position or a full tme 3B defensively. His skillset is really limited.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/valenda01.shtml

My only point is that KC could have gotten more for this "swap" than they did. Lough is more valuable than Valencia. They helped themselves in a position of need but could have helped themselves more so they wasted marginal utility.

I think the idea is that Valencia would only start against lefties since Moustakas has so much trouble with them, and so DV's defensive liability and his severe split vs. RHP would be limited.

[Enjoy Terror]

I am shocked KC dealt Lough for him.

KC had a crowded outfield (Lough, Aoki, Dyson, Gordon, Cain, Maxwell... Bonifacio if you wanna count him). We had a crowded 3B. It kinda made sense for both teams though I agree we got the better player.

[McLovin]

Doesn't have the patience or the base stealing stats, but I see a resemblance to Brady in his build, swing, and defensive play. Has a better arm too.

[weams]

Brady is gonna love him.

[BohKnowsBmore]

My initial take is that Lough is a nice pick up, especially if he is treated as a 4th OF and not a starter. Love the defense, but I'm worried about OBP. Valencia was a nice bat off the bench, something which we really needed (maybe still need).

It scares me to death that we are all but anointing Almanzar to the 25-man roster now. It'll be hard to hid him for a full year and not hurt the team, plus it makes our bench weaker by keeping him. Must we keep a rule 5 guy three straight years?

I think this all but confirms Urrutia starting in Norfolk, which is fine. That still leaves six more OFs (Markakis, Jones, Reimold, Pearce, Lough, and Peguero). Peguero is in trouble...remember he has NO OPTIONS remaining. What do you do with him?

Lough was able to put up some decent OBP numbers in the minors, probably the best year being AAA 2011: .318/.367/.482/.850 in 516 PA. Last year, while in AAA, he was .338/.391/.474/.865 in 172 PA in AAA.

[LookinUp]

I think this is a fine move, but much like the JJ/Balfour+ moves, when you differentiate team composition from the specifics of one move, I'm not sure I'm satisfied. Yes, I understand that's a wholly unfair argument to make 4 months from opening day. If Lough is our 4th outfielder, he's as good as it gets I'd guess. As your starting LFer, he's likely a 2nd division starter. That's fine and maybe and upgrade (certainly for the money), but I'm not sure it's enough for this team.

I'll also admit that some of my skepticism comes from the fact that much of this guy's value is tied to defensive metrics. I think those metrics are good indicators of relative defensive ability, but I don't yet buy into their relative weight in WAR.

At this point in the offseason, I think we're probably better at OF and bullpen, worse at SP, and the rest is the same. I expect the SP to be supplemented to be at least equal to what we lost in Feldman, so I expect a better team heading into next season. I worry about performance drop offs from Machado, Davis and Hardy, but I'm hopeful for upgrades from Markakis, Wieters (marginally) and Flaherty.

If DD is able to spend that $10-$20 million on a good SP and a genuinely worthy bat, this will be a very nice offseason. Enough to contend? Yes, but not with a ton of margin for error.

[Enjoy Terror]

Is it "Loff" or "Low" when you say his name?

[ShaneDawg85]

I can certainly take stock in the fact that he's under the age of 30, which keeps the majority of the lineup outside of Markakis and Hardy under the age of 30. I liked Nate, I kind of wish we could have kept him as a 4th OF, but he's entering that territory where he can either still be productive or completely drop off, and he wasn't the best defender based on the stats. Lough provides, on paper, pretty good defense, which is hard to get in the corner spots in Camden Yards and is essential with a staff like the one we have. I don't know how good he'll be, if he's essentially the starter or 4th OF in waiting, but he should provide something of value.

[Redskins Rick]

We gave up LJ for Norris. A move that I agreed with at the time.

Having said that, now that McLouth is gone and we traded Valencia for Lough.

Is Lough/Platoon Partner a better option in LF, then LJ or LJ/Platoon Partner.